Analyzing the Analysts

We still don't know who watches the watchmen, but we've learned who analyzes the analysts, as Kotaku takes a look at the accuracy of various predictions by the pundits who advise investors on the gaming market (thanks Ant). We'd like to claim credit for the idea after pointing out some analytical inaccuracies in reporting a recent analyst-inspired rumor (story) (which actually turned out to be accurate (story)), but these prognostications just scream out for a little correlation with reality. That turns out to be exactly how much correlation with reality they have, a little, as the best of these analysts are right about 60% of the time, with that number inflated by the occasional no-brainer gem like "price cuts will help PS3 sales." They give highest marks to Michael Pachter for his 60% success rate and the near-accuracy of some of his misses (as he says, his business is like horseshoes, where almost counts). In the end, however, over half subjects of their study are wrong more than half the time, so if you think your guess is as good as theirs, you may just be right.