Happy Groundhog Day, the annual celebration of Woodchuck weather reports as well
as the repeated chance to punch Ned right in his needle-nose. I've gone on a lot
lately about the cold and gloom surrounding the BlueTower, where the pond hasn't
thawed since it froze a month ago. So I'm eager for good news in the very exact
science of foretelling the end of winter. If Punxsutawney Phil is indeed the
paper of record in this area, then it's bad news, because
in seeing his shadow, he's dashing hopes spring will arrive early, and
setting our expectations for six more weeks of nastiness. On the other hand, "In
the 10 annual predictions from 2013 to 2022, Punxsutawney Phil was less accurate
with his weather predications than flipping a coin would have been. He was right
four times in that period -- 2020, 2016, 2014 and 2013 -- and was incorrect in
the six other instances." If I'm looking for more optimism, far closer to here
than Punxsutawney, PA is Staten Island, where
Staten Island Chuck is calling for an early spring. And according to that
article, Chuck (and/or his replacement) is much better at this than his
better-publicized rival: "Chuck has an 85% accuracy rate, higher than his more
famous counterpart Punxsutawney Phil who has a 39% accuracy rate."
Accurate Round-up
Thanks Ant, Neutronbeam, and Max.
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