Out of the Blue

Happy Groundhog Day, the annual celebration of Woodchuck weather reports as well as the repeated chance to punch Ned right in his needle-nose. I've gone on a lot lately about the cold and gloom surrounding the BlueTower, where the pond hasn't thawed since it froze a month ago. So I'm eager for good news in the very exact science of foretelling the end of winter. If Punxsutawney Phil is indeed the paper of record in this area, then it's bad news, because in seeing his shadow, he's dashing hopes spring will arrive early, and setting our expectations for six more weeks of nastiness. On the other hand, "In the 10 annual predictions from 2013 to 2022, Punxsutawney Phil was less accurate with his weather predications than flipping a coin would have been. He was right four times in that period -- 2020, 2016, 2014 and 2013 -- and was incorrect in the six other instances." If I'm looking for more optimism, far closer to here than Punxsutawney, PA is Staten Island, where Staten Island Chuck is calling for an early spring. And according to that article, Chuck (and/or his replacement) is much better at this than his better-publicized rival: "Chuck has an 85% accuracy rate, higher than his more famous counterpart Punxsutawney Phil who has a 39% accuracy rate."

Accurate Round-up
Thanks Ant, Neutronbeam, and Max.

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