Grand Theft Auto VI by 2024?

A new Axios Gaming Newsletter has a roundup of gaming business news from crack reporter Stephen Totilo. Included are the latest tea leaf readings on when we might expect Grand Theft Auto VI. Despite much speculation, there has never been an official announcement of plans for Rockstar's next iteration of Take-Two's cash cow, but Stephen notes it may actually arrive by early 2024. Here are the clues:
Take-Two Interactive may have signaled this week that the elusive Grand Theft Auto VI will be released by early 2024.

Driving the news: Stock analysts are getting that from Take-Two executives’ assertion Monday that the company’s compound annual growth rate through 2024 will be 14%.

  • Take-Two stated that as part of its promotion of its planned Zynga deal.
  • "There are only a handful of titles that can ... provide management with the confidence to put out such a strong guidance; we believe there is at least one Rockstar IP set to be released by FY24," an analyst from Jefferies noted.
  • Cowen’s Doug Creutz translated the numbers, which anticipate some $9 billion in bookings (read: gaming-related transactions), into “a likely GTA 6 launch in FY24.”
  • That FY24 stretches from April 1, 2023, through March 31, 2024.

Between the lines: Take-Two has previously hinted at the release of Rockstar’s blockbusters by announcing increased revenue expectations for specific timeframes.

  • Take-Two tipped a 2012 or early 2013 release window for GTA V back in 2011 through its newly announced financial targets, then signaled a delay when it lowered them, Creutz told Axios. The game shipped in late 2013.
  • “So yeah, there absolutely is precedent for putting a Rockstar game into #s before it’s officially dated (and then getting it wrong),” he said.