A
new SEC Filing from Take-Two Interactive suggests we might be getting a new
installment in the
Grand Theft Auto series in 2023. As noted on
VentureBeat, a
research brief from investment firm Stephens Inc., this Form 10-K filing
shows a spike in Take-Two's projected marketing budget has shifted to fiscal
2024, which concludes on March 31, 2024. This kind of spending proved to be a
reliable indicator for the release of
Red Dead Redemption 2, suggesting it
may be the same for the eagerly awaited next installment in the open-world crime
series. This is unconfirmed, and still far enough out that plans could certainly
change again even if it's accurate, but it certainly does seem like a plausible
theory. Here's word on why Blue Horseshoe loves Endicott Steel:
Each year
TTWO's 10-K discloses minimum marketing commitments for the subsequent five
fiscal years. In our bull / bear note in February we hypothesized that GTA VI
was likely planned for F23 due to a spike in committed marketing spend for that
year (see Figure 1). However, this year's 10-K seems to have shifted that spend
from F23 to F24. We are not sure how much we should be reading into this shift,
but we would note that this disclosure accurately predicted the launch of Red
Dead Redemption 2 prior to that game's announcement. Management has spoken very
confidently about the pipeline over the next five years and existing live
services execution has been excellent. However, the timing of the next Grand
Theft Auto remains top-of-mind for investors, particularly with the stock near
all-time-highs.