New Grand Theft Auto in 2023?

A new SEC Filing from Take-Two Interactive suggests we might be getting a new installment in the Grand Theft Auto series in 2023. As noted on VentureBeat, a research brief from investment firm Stephens Inc., this Form 10-K filing shows a spike in Take-Two's projected marketing budget has shifted to fiscal 2024, which concludes on March 31, 2024. This kind of spending proved to be a reliable indicator for the release of Red Dead Redemption 2, suggesting it may be the same for the eagerly awaited next installment in the open-world crime series. This is unconfirmed, and still far enough out that plans could certainly change again even if it's accurate, but it certainly does seem like a plausible theory. Here's word on why Blue Horseshoe loves Endicott Steel:
Each year TTWO's 10-K discloses minimum marketing commitments for the subsequent five fiscal years. In our bull / bear note in February we hypothesized that GTA VI was likely planned for F23 due to a spike in committed marketing spend for that year (see Figure 1). However, this year's 10-K seems to have shifted that spend from F23 to F24. We are not sure how much we should be reading into this shift, but we would note that this disclosure accurately predicted the launch of Red Dead Redemption 2 prior to that game's announcement. Management has spoken very confidently about the pipeline over the next five years and existing live services execution has been excellent. However, the timing of the next Grand Theft Auto remains top-of-mind for investors, particularly with the stock near all-time-highs.