This document (Adobe Acrobat format) offers an outline of a briefing from SQUARE ENIX about their revisions to their Consolidated Results Forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2013. This includes a clarification of how the new Tomb Raider reboot managed to fall short of their sales goals in spite of setting a franchise record. Though the game sold 3.4 million units out of the gate, apparently they were expecting it to double that, projecting 5-6 million sales in an estimate they still felt was a conservative 80-90 percent of how the game would actually perform. Apparently their optimism was based on the expectation that the game would score highly on Metacritic (which it has, averaging 86 across three platforms), which would significantly boost sales, which it hasn't. They thought there were being similarly conservative in their sales estimates for Sleeping Dogs and Hitman Absolution, and were apparently similarly optimistic instead, as each of those games also fell short of their projections. Thanks Eurogamer.
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