The only people who will be buying Blu-Ray movies down the road are the same people insisted on Laser-Discs forever.
Most people that bought into Laser Disc are now middle aged or older. The market has changed drastically since LD's, completely different demographics.
Online distribution is going to annihilate the DVD home sales market. Just decimate it.
It's funny, on one hand you have people touting how online won't take over because people want to own a physical product...on the other hand you have people stating online distro is going to take over.
Blu-Ray quality is far higher than any online/digital distro. It's also a physical product, it also holds a lot of extras (people like extras), you are only going to get the movies from digital distro not extras. Blu-Ray prices are already coming down, and really the average Blu-Ray is only $5 more than the DVD.
Anyone that is actually smart, is only going to upgrade certain movies to Blu-Ray and maintain their existing DVD collection. Most RomComs & drama's etc, DVD will do fine. Action, Sci-Fi, Fantasy...get on Blu-Ray.
How long will it be until you can watch any movie you want on your iphone for a fee? (legally...)
Mobile tv and movies are a completely different market and is hardly comparable to the home theatre market...convenience vs quality.
Their cable box will deliver whatever they want.
Infrastructure isn't there to support that, yet. It's started, sure. Maybe in 25 years it's a possibility that everything will be digital, but not anytime soon, certainly won't happen during Blu-Rays lifetime.