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Re: Morning Consolidation
Feb 13, 2009, 21:05
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Re: Morning Consolidation Feb 13, 2009, 21:05
Feb 13, 2009, 21:05
 
Seriously, can nobody fucking read? Blu-Ray is doing better at this point than DVD was at the same point in it's lifespan. Someone posted links to figures a month or more ago...the proof is out there.

This is a misleading factor. I'm almost positive that it includes PS3 units pushed, which is a significant factor.

Let's put a timeline in here:

1996: DVD was initially released commercially
2000: PS2 was released with a DVD player in it

Blu-Ray release: Mid 2006 (if you want to get technical, 2003, but there was no "standard" at the time)
PS3 release: Late 2006

So, the numbers about blu-ray saturation take PS3 sales into account (21 million units pushed) over about 2.5 years.

To compare saturation as an entertainment replacement for DVD at 2.5 years into DVD's life (and still a year and a half away from the PS2, which the DVD drive was a selling point for), you have to pull out PS3's sales numbers and strictly look at blu-ray players sold.

I'm sure the numbers are much more stark without including 100% of PS3 units sold as blu-ray adoption. I'd be interested to see those numbers.

Because let's face it, if you include the 120 million ps2 players as part of the "market" that Blu-ray has to displace, it has a very, very, very long way to go (there's something like one billion DVD players to displace, and DVD still accounts for 97% of sales and market saturation).

Blu-ray, at the moment, is a drop in the bucket. Far more likely than digital distribution making blu-ray obsolete is the advent of solid-state memory storage surpassing anything blu-ray can provide, and at higher throughputs. Flash memory is dropping in price rapidly, and within a few years is expected to surpass traditional hard drive costs, which at the moment is something like 10 cents per gig.

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