"Blu-Ray is still only a fledgling format that's not gaining support amongst techies because it's already obsolete..."
You're wrong there, Blu-ray has a faster adoption rate than DVD and DVD didn't have a format war.
Here's a quote from the BDA that came out last week at CES:
"For meaningful comparison, here's some data from Adams Media Research showing the U.S. market penetration of other historical home entertainment technologies at the end of their respective third year of introduction:
TV - 3%
Color TV - .5%
VHS - .5%
CD - 1.5%
DVD - 4.5%
HDTV - 1%
Blu-ray - 7.75%"
Yes, digital downloads will become increasingly popular, but as a substitution to renting, not purchasing. People still want the package, the bonus features, and the video quality that Blu-ray has over highly compressed HD signals from the satellite and cable companies.