Mass Effect has no replay value?!? As a ADD gamer, when I finished Mass Effect the first time and immediately started a second run, it says something about the replay value.
If your a car lower, Forza 2 and the PGR series would be enough for you to buy the system.
Hell my sister is about to buy one just for Xbox Live Arcade.
And what about all the exclusive content for GTA4? I know people that bought PSP's just for the GTA titles.
And then you have the Madden issue. There are crazy people in this world that eat, sleep and shit Madden football, and would easily buy a 360 for the best experience possible in Madden.
But when prices start dropping for Blu-Ray player to the point where they are the same price or cheaper then a PS3, is when SOFTWARE will be mandatory for the PS3.