Out of the Blue

Gunnar-man and I are off to the Vet this morning to do some follow-up blood tests. Here's hoping he's kicked whatever infection he's been fighting.

Follow-up Links! Thanks Mike Martinez and Ant.
Play: Urgent. Thanks User Friendly.
Link of the Morning: Terminology used by Technicians. NSFW (text) language. Thanks Digg.
Stories: Who's Counting: The Monty Hall Problem. My favorite brain-teaser.
Wal-Mart Says Thank You to Workers (registration required).
Science!: Psychopaths' brains 'different'. Que'st que c'est.
German high-tech sky sail may cut costs, emissions.
Obese should exercise not 'diet'.
Media: This disaster teddy bear contains 22 items for any emergency.
Follow-up: NASA outlines lunar strategy.
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27 Replies. 2 pages. Viewing page 1.
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27.
 
Re: Monty Hall
Dec 4, 2006, 23:53
27.
Re: Monty Hall Dec 4, 2006, 23:53
Dec 4, 2006, 23:53
 
You are wrong. It might seem that way, but it is not. I understand why you think that, but it is really wrong. It is what most people with out any knowledge of statistics think (and that is fine).....

There's a 100% chance you gave me a headache with all of that.
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26.
 
Re: This disaster teddy bear contains 22
Dec 4, 2006, 22:29
Enahs
 
26.
Re: This disaster teddy bear contains 22 Dec 4, 2006, 22:29
Dec 4, 2006, 22:29
 Enahs
 
You lied punk, you aint their. More people use the chat!

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25.
 
Re: This disaster teddy bear contains 22
Dec 4, 2006, 21:49
25.
Re: This disaster teddy bear contains 22 Dec 4, 2006, 21:49
Dec 4, 2006, 21:49
 
I do not speak Japanese, but I swear from time 20-23 it says you might need this disaster teddy bear if you are attacked by godzilla!

Only when you mention this, I hear it... whee.

Enahs, in chat now if you like - same goes for everyone else.. wondering how many we can pack in the BluesChat..

Dan =0)

PS Will find out tomorrow if the MBox 2 mini works as expected...

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24.
 
No subject
Dec 4, 2006, 19:12
24.
No subject Dec 4, 2006, 19:12
Dec 4, 2006, 19:12
 
If anyone is interested (and they don't like buying online) both Guild Wars: Factions AND Guild Wars: Nightfall are onsale at Circuit City for $37.99.

I DO encourage you to seach at AMAZON.com and buy via the go-gamer.com link for a decent price, or gamble like I did and get the SE versions for 29.99 a piece from other sellers. New in box.

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23.
 
This disaster teddy bear contains 22 ite
Dec 4, 2006, 18:00
Enahs
 
23.
This disaster teddy bear contains 22 ite Dec 4, 2006, 18:00
Dec 4, 2006, 18:00
 Enahs
 
This disaster teddy bear contains 22 items for any emergency.

I do not speak Japanese, but I swear from time 20-23 it says you might need this disaster teddy bear if you are attacked by godzilla!



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This comment was edited on Dec 4, 18:00.
I am free of all prejudice. I hate everyone equally.
- W. C. Fields
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22.
 
Re: Monty Hall
Dec 4, 2006, 17:34
Enahs
 
22.
Re: Monty Hall Dec 4, 2006, 17:34
Dec 4, 2006, 17:34
 Enahs
 
You have a 50% chance to get the car. Because the host always opens the door WITHOUT a car, that door is completely removed from the equation. Just look at it.

No matter what door you pick first, he opens a door. That door will never have the car. The door he opens is removed from the equation. He asks if you want to change doors. He is asking you to pick one out of two doors. One of them has a car. One of them doesn't. 1/2 the time you will win, 1/2 the time you will lose. Whatever door you picked first is completely irrelevant because he will always remove a wrong choice after you pick your door. These are not sequential probabilities; they are independent. Your first choice has *zero* impact on the second choice. So instead of it being a [1/3 2/3] problem you have a [[1/3 1/3 1/3] problem. With one wrong answer removed, it is no longer in thirds. He asks you again: which door do you want? There are now two doors, not three, to choose from. One of two doors has a car, one does not. Your first choice doesn't matter at *all*, because whether or not you chose correctly, he will remove a door WITHOUT the car from the equation.

You are wrong. It might seem that way, but it is not. I understand why you think that, but it is really wrong. It is what most people with out any knowledge of statistics think (and that is fine).

To do it the way the article did, but put it in English.

Doors are labeled A,B and C.
Case 1: The car is behind door A
Case 2: The car is behind door B
Case 3: The car is behind door C

Let us say that in every case you pick door A.

In case 1 Monty could open either B or C and you would win by staying with your answer.

In case 2 Monty must open door C, so you could win by switching to door B.

In case 3 Monty must open door B, so you could win by switching to door C.

Thus, in two of three equally likely cases, you would win by switching from A to the other door. In only one of the three equally likely cases would you win by staying with your original choice.

You therefor have a more statistical and probable chance of winning, if you switch. Most people think it is 50/50, it is not. If this was a one time event (irrelevant if you only get one chance), it would be 50/50. But it is not. That is how statistics and probability works. It might seem counter intuitive, but it is the truth.

But this question is over simplified and flawed, as there are other factors that must statistically be taken into account (Like for instance in this case, the majority of the time Monty only offered people the chance to switch when they picked the correct door first. There is a statistical value you must calculate for when Monty offered the chance when the person was right/wrong, and factor that into the previous values). There are also many other things. This article is just about math, not true statistics.


*edit*
Here, go here and try it your self to prove to your self:
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
Do it 10 times by keeping the same door, and 10 times by switching and see which way you win more.

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This comment was edited on Dec 4, 17:40.
I am free of all prejudice. I hate everyone equally.
- W. C. Fields
Avatar 15513
21.
 
Monty Hall
Dec 4, 2006, 17:18
PHJF
 
21.
Monty Hall Dec 4, 2006, 17:18
Dec 4, 2006, 17:18
 PHJF
 
You have a 50% chance to get the car. Because the host always opens the door WITHOUT a car, that door is completely removed from the equation. Just look at it.

No matter what door you pick first, he opens a door. That door will never have the car. The door he opens is removed from the equation. He asks if you want to change doors. He is asking you to pick one out of two doors. One of them has a car. One of them doesn't. 1/2 the time you will win, 1/2 the time you will lose. Whatever door you picked first is completely irrelevant because he will always remove a wrong choice after you pick your door. These are not sequential probabilities; they are independent. Your first choice has *zero* impact on the second choice. So instead of it being a [1/3 2/3] problem you have a [[1/3 1/3 1/3] problem. With one wrong answer removed, it is no longer in thirds. He asks you again: which door do you want? There are now two doors, not three, to choose from. One of two doors has a car, one does not. Your first choice doesn't matter at *all*, because whether or not you chose correctly, he will remove a door WITHOUT the car from the equation.

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20.
 
No subject
Dec 4, 2006, 17:10
20.
No subject Dec 4, 2006, 17:10
Dec 4, 2006, 17:10
 
Women who are clinically obese don't need to diet to improve their health, say UK researchers.

THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS!

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19.
 
No subject
Dec 4, 2006, 16:56
19.
No subject Dec 4, 2006, 16:56
Dec 4, 2006, 16:56
 
Wow, with that wii seeker (looked at it the day after release) there are over 100 in the immediate Minneapolis area.

If anyone wants one, let me know, send the $$$ and I will go get one for you.

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18.
 
No subject
Dec 4, 2006, 16:54
18.
No subject Dec 4, 2006, 16:54
Dec 4, 2006, 16:54
 
If anyone does have Psychonauts yet, (don't buy from Steam - it is a ripoff!) www.gogamer.com is selling for $4.90.

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17.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 16:51
Enahs
 
17.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 16:51
Dec 4, 2006, 16:51
 Enahs
 

Oh my!

http://www.cnn.com/2006/SHOWBIZ/TV/12/04/television.lilbush.reut/index.html

*yawn*
Comedy Central use to have funny stuff on it. Other then South Parkā€¦.ehhh.



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16.
 
Wii Seeker
Dec 4, 2006, 16:50
16.
Wii Seeker Dec 4, 2006, 16:50
Dec 4, 2006, 16:50
 
http://ps3seeker.com/wii/index.php?p=07422&x=23&y=2

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15.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 16:49
Enahs
 
15.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 16:49
Dec 4, 2006, 16:49
 Enahs
 
This guy's story is stupid. The chances of winning are ALWAYS 50%. Either you win... or you don't.
But if there's 3 doors, you don't have a 50% chance of being right - you have a 33% chance.

No. And the article might be mathematically correct; it is however incorrect on a statistical and probability level. As statistics and probability factors in more then just the fraction of choices as compared to the whole.






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14.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 16:45
nin
14.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 16:45
Dec 4, 2006, 16:45
nin
 

Oh my!

http://www.cnn.com/2006/SHOWBIZ/TV/12/04/television.lilbush.reut/index.html



-----------------------------------------------------
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13.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 16:28
nin
13.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 16:28
Dec 4, 2006, 16:28
nin
 
nin:

Opinions on your revo? thoughts etc? I dont think ive seen any/many posts fromm you on it.


Yeah, I confined them all to the guild board, which I think you need to be a member of in order to read...

I like what I see, but I also see definite room for improvement. Control (probably the biggest question) is spot on, but I have gripes about GC emulation, and how it handles hardware...Also (see yesterdays comments) the Virtual Console needs some heavy hitters, ASAP.

It's certainly fun, but I've spent the most time w/ 8 bit Zelda.



-----------------------------------------------------
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12.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 16:11
12.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 16:11
Dec 4, 2006, 16:11
 
nin:

Opinions on your revo? thoughts etc? I dont think ive seen any/many posts fromm you on it.

------
Diablo & Diablo 2 for the DS, it makes sense Blizzard!
http://www.1000to0.com
------
Diablo & Diablo 2 for the DS, it makes sense Blizzard!
11.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 16:11
11.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 16:11
Dec 4, 2006, 16:11
 
The chances of winning are ALWAYS 50%. Either you win... or you don't.

Thank you for trolling, please come back when you've learned some rudimentary math.

10.
 
Re: Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 15:55
nin
10.
Re: Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 15:55
Dec 4, 2006, 15:55
nin
 
This guy's story is stupid. The chances of winning are ALWAYS 50%. Either you win... or you don't.

But if there's 3 doors, you don't have a 50% chance of being right - you have a 33% chance.



-----------------------------------------------------
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9.
 
Monty Hall Math
Dec 4, 2006, 15:44
9.
Monty Hall Math Dec 4, 2006, 15:44
Dec 4, 2006, 15:44
 


This guy's story is stupid. The chances of winning are ALWAYS 50%. Either you win... or you don't.
This comment was edited on Dec 4, 15:45.
8.
 
Re: No subject
Dec 4, 2006, 13:53
8.
Re: No subject Dec 4, 2006, 13:53
Dec 4, 2006, 13:53
 
That was one of the questions I was gopign to ask the vet, but got side tracked by a work related phone call, (on Saturday!!!)

Im hoping its not, and leaning toward the anser being a 'no' as neither the wife or I have got it yet.

------
Diablo & Diablo 2 for the DS, it makes sense Blizzard!
http://www.1000to0.com
------
Diablo & Diablo 2 for the DS, it makes sense Blizzard!
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