The thing with the new consoles is that the companies are making it as easy as possible to develop for them. PS3 is using OpenGL (2.0?), XBox2 will have XNA (or whatever the abbreviation is.) Nintendo hasn't said anything, but given that they're the world's best software developer, I'm sure they know what to do in terms of developer friendliness--from a software perspective, anyway. They still have problems with developer relations.
I think this "oh no, the new consoles are going to kill off 90% of all the publishers and software houses" stuff isn't going to pass. Some companies will die, but only because they put out crappy products--see Acclaim.