RogueSix wrote on May 22, 2025, 01:27:

At around 34 million GamePass subs in 2024, even if everyone would have paid full price (certainly not remotely the case due to the promos), they are definitely in the hole a few hundred million dollars if they spent a billion on securing games.

Gamepass subs range from $75 to$250 per year. If we assume $100 per year per person average, that's 3.4B USD.

RogueSix wrote on May 22, 2025, 01:27:

Xeth Nyrrow wrote on May 21, 2025, 21:17:
Ah right, I remember now...it's like EGS exclusive deals, the temptation of easy money. So how do the numbers play out? We know games are losing a lot of money from lower direct sales in hopes that Game Pass is giving them more but does it turn a better (or any) profit? I'm guessing there's some clause about player, "engagement" count that maybe determines any sort of a royalty type compensation if it even exists. Or does M$ pocket all the extra money? I bet they do, it sounds like a lose-lose for game companies. For M$ it's a win-win for and in the case of M$ made games it's a win-win-win because they pay no one but themselves. Clever, greedy bastards they are.

Per game contractual details are hard to come by but according to this article from September 2024 (based on a Bloomberg story and the info was apparently divulged by M$ exec Sarah Bond) M$ is spending up to $1 billion per year to secure games for GamePass.

Bloomberg reported that, "Microsoft now spends $1 billion a year getting third-party games on the subscription service." The site said Microsoft offers "flat fees of millions of dollars upfront" to add titles from smaller publishers to Game Pass.

... and...

In 2021, Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer spoken openly about how there is no one defined path for the deals it makes for Game Pass releases. He told The Verge that Microsoft's Game Pass deals are "all over the place," and he understands that this might sound "unmanaged."

In some cases, Microsoft will completely fund the development costs of a game, and the studio can go sell their game on rival stores like PlayStation and Steam, or at retail, while Microsoft enjoys the benefit of having another Game Pass game. "For them, they've protected themselves from any downside risk. The game is going to get made. Then they have all the retail upside, we have the opportunity for day and date. That would be a flat fee payment to a developer," he said.

In other cases, a game might be finished, and then Microsoft works out a straight cash deal to bring it to Game Pass, Spencer said. Still, other deals involve usage and how much monetization a game has through in-game sales. If this all sounds like the Wild West, it's because it is.

At around 34 million GamePass subs in 2024, even if everyone would have paid full price (certainly not remotely the case due to the promos), they are definitely in the hole a few hundred million dollars if they spent a billion on securing games.

Thanks for the details, this is pretty much what I thought was happening. It's like the dot-com bubble all over again in a way. Only the biggest companies will be around to pick up the pieces if it gets out of hand. I posted in another thread, Embracer is planning to crank out a shit ton of shitty games in the hopes of making money is the next step for those not wanting to play this capture market share at a loss game. Everything trying to push subscription type services in gaming needs to fail and go to hell fast.

Go ahead fire up Doom 2016 and check out how little graphics and engines have advanced in the last 9 years. That game still looks, runs and plays amazing. Of the new Dooms it's still the best one.

All this hand wringing when all that matters to me is whether I enjoy the game, and I do. It could sell only 1000 copies, and I don't care, I still enjoy the game. Sure, I could have waited for a discount but I was in the mood for something new, and it's filling the niche for me.

I think a lot of peeps in this economy will just wait for a sale. Totally understand that.

headshot wrote on May 22, 2025, 06:41:

RogueSix wrote on May 21, 2025, 20:20:

Xeth Nyrrow wrote on May 21, 2025, 19:00:

Gamers quit the second the price gets too high. they aren't loyal, they just abuse you for the cheap games the get with the sub for as long as that sub isn't too pricey.

I think this is exactly what is happing. Don't worry, this won't be a problem for much longer. Soon everyone will have Ai Agents that automatically spend their money on the things for them. The market will be optimized.

RogueSix wrote on May 21, 2025, 20:20:

Xeth Nyrrow wrote on May 21, 2025, 19:00:
They have to sell what, 5-6 game pass subs to make up the revenue that would come from selling a game at full price. Also are there games that are, "leased" where they have to pay out to other publishers a cut of profits? I haven;t looked in to the economics recently but last i heard they are losing money big time.

It doesn't really apply to DOOM TDA since M$ own Bethesda, and by association id, so any transactions occur within the M$ universe but for external devs/publishers: Yes, and it used to be a HUGE hook, especially for smaller devs, to get that sweet GamePass cash up front.

Another interesting article is this one here:

"Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox," Dring says. "That's the figure that gets thrown around a lot. It's less if it's a big mainstream release, but generally...look at how Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox."

Game Pass subscriptions help Xbox and Microsoft, but that can be different for game developers, so to lose up to 80% of a games premium sales on one platform is a huge chunk of change missing. Granted, Xbox pays out a big lump-sum to developers to get games on Game Pass, but that lump-sum could never beat the potential earnings of premium game sales over time.

they think they are building some sort of community or loyal fans, all united by paying the game pass admission. that they "have" them and just repeat what they did with computers: once everyone and their dog has one, they are the go-to champions. having that kind of power and market share comes with a price, sure. but they get loyalty, right?

nope. gamers quit the second the price gets too high. they aren't loyal, they just abuse you for the cheap games the get with the sub for as long as that sub isn't too pricey.

maybe there is a long play somewhere down the road, but i wouldn't count on it.

I am currently reinstalling Doom (2016). I had to leave it while I went to work. (Yes my Internet is really shitty where I currently reside) Need to rip and tear, any damn way I want to, not play Block Red, Reflect Green, Dodge Blue, punch Purple....

Xeth Nyrrow wrote on May 21, 2025, 21:17:
Ah right, I remember now...it's like EGS exclusive deals, the temptation of easy money. So how do the numbers play out? We know games are losing a lot of money from lower direct sales in hopes that Game Pass is giving them more but does it turn a better (or any) profit? I'm guessing there's some clause about player, "engagement" count that maybe determines any sort of a royalty type compensation if it even exists. Or does M$ pocket all the extra money? I bet they do, it sounds like a lose-lose for game companies. For M$ it's a win-win for and in the case of M$ made games it's a win-win-win because they pay no one but themselves. Clever, greedy bastards they are.

Per game contractual details are hard to come by but according to this article from September 2024 (based on a Bloomberg story and the info was apparently divulged by M$ exec Sarah Bond) M$ is spending up to $1 billion per year to secure games for GamePass.

Bloomberg reported that, "Microsoft now spends $1 billion a year getting third-party games on the subscription service." The site said Microsoft offers "flat fees of millions of dollars upfront" to add titles from smaller publishers to Game Pass.

... and...

In 2021, Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer spoken openly about how there is no one defined path for the deals it makes for Game Pass releases. He told The Verge that Microsoft's Game Pass deals are "all over the place," and he understands that this might sound "unmanaged."

In some cases, Microsoft will completely fund the development costs of a game, and the studio can go sell their game on rival stores like PlayStation and Steam, or at retail, while Microsoft enjoys the benefit of having another Game Pass game. "For them, they've protected themselves from any downside risk. The game is going to get made. Then they have all the retail upside, we have the opportunity for day and date. That would be a flat fee payment to a developer," he said.

In other cases, a game might be finished, and then Microsoft works out a straight cash deal to bring it to Game Pass, Spencer said. Still, other deals involve usage and how much monetization a game has through in-game sales. If this all sounds like the Wild West, it's because it is.

At around 34 million GamePass subs in 2024, even if everyone would have paid full price (certainly not remotely the case due to the promos), they are definitely in the hole a few hundred million dollars if they spent a billion on securing games.

RogueSix wrote on May 21, 2025, 20:20:

Xeth Nyrrow wrote on May 21, 2025, 19:00:
They have to sell what, 5-6 game pass subs to make up the revenue that would come from selling a game at full price. Also are there games that are, "leased" where they have to pay out to other publishers a cut of profits? I haven;t looked in to the economics recently but last i heard they are losing money big time.

It doesn't really apply to DOOM TDA since M$ own Bethesda, and by association id, so any transactions occur within the M$ universe but for external devs/publishers: Yes, and it used to be a HUGE hook, especially for smaller devs, to get that sweet GamePass cash up front.

Another interesting article is this one here:

"Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox," Dring says. "That's the figure that gets thrown around a lot. It's less if it's a big mainstream release, but generally...look at how Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox."

Game Pass subscriptions help Xbox and Microsoft, but that can be different for game developers, so to lose up to 80% of a games premium sales on one platform is a huge chunk of change missing. Granted, Xbox pays out a big lump-sum to developers to get games on Game Pass, but that lump-sum could never beat the potential earnings of premium game sales over time.

Ah right, I remember now...it's like EGS exclusive deals, the temptation of easy money. So how do the numbers play out? We know games are losing a lot of money from lower direct sales in hopes that Game Pass is giving them more but does it turn a better (or any) profit? I'm guessing there's some clause about player, "engagement" count that maybe determines any sort of a royalty type compensation if it even exists. Or does M$ pocket all the extra money? I bet they do, it sounds like a lose-lose for game companies. For M$ it's a win-win for and in the case of M$ made games it's a win-win-win because they pay no one but themselves. Clever, greedy bastards they are.

Xeth Nyrrow wrote on May 21, 2025, 19:00:
They have to sell what, 5-6 game pass subs to make up the revenue that would come from selling a game at full price. Also are there games that are, "leased" where they have to pay out to other publishers a cut of profits? I haven;t looked in to the economics recently but last i heard they are losing money big time.

It doesn't really apply to DOOM TDA since M$ own Bethesda, and by association id, so any transactions occur within the M$ universe but for external devs/publishers: Yes, and it used to be a HUGE hook, especially for smaller devs, to get that sweet GamePass cash up front.

Another interesting article is this one here:

"Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox," Dring says. "That's the figure that gets thrown around a lot. It's less if it's a big mainstream release, but generally...look at how Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox."

Game Pass subscriptions help Xbox and Microsoft, but that can be different for game developers, so to lose up to 80% of a games premium sales on one platform is a huge chunk of change missing. Granted, Xbox pays out a big lump-sum to developers to get games on Game Pass, but that lump-sum could never beat the potential earnings of premium game sales over time.

RogueSix wrote on May 21, 2025, 20:06:

FloorPie wrote on May 21, 2025, 19:23:
At least they got rid of the glory kill mechanic being totally necessary from Eternal... to replace it with Perry Doom gets a shield.

And let's not forget the built-in ping-pong simulator. Block the green shit and reflect it back at the enemy. Hundreds of times.

You get two for the price of one here! A boom-boom and a ping-pong sim. What a time to be alive!

Double the pleasure, double the fun; that shit's at least worth $140

People still debating things that they don't know. Without any context. Sometimes you guys make me go "hmmmm"... But I get over it quickly. 😁

FloorPie wrote on May 21, 2025, 19:23:
At least they got rid of the glory kill mechanic being totally necessary from Eternal... to replace it with Perry Doom gets a shield.

And let's not forget the built-in ping-pong simulator. Block the green shit and reflect it back at the enemy. Hundreds of times.

You get two for the price of one here! A boom-boom and a ping-pong sim. What a time to be alive!

I'm not too surprised the Steam numbers are weak despite that most people seem to like it and critic reviews are all around 8/10. It is a single player only campaign, $70 for 10-20 hours in length, has denuvo on pc, requires a ray tracing card on PC and I think the consoles only got a digital release.

At least they got rid of the glory kill mechanic being totally necessary from Eternal... to replace it with Perry Doom gets a shield.

phinn wrote on May 21, 2025, 16:00:
I imagine the game pass subs are pretty substantial at this point so I don’t see it as a problem just quoting player counts. I’ll likely pick this one up on Steam eventually when it’s on sale.

I really wonder about this as I am of the thought that game pass type monthly subscriptions were still loss leaders to gain market share. It is for TV streaming services and games cost a pretty penny more than TV shows do these days I bet.

They have to sell what, 5-6 game pass subs to make up the revenue that would come from selling a game at full price. Also are there games that are, "leased" where they have to pay out to other publishers a cut of profits? I haven;t looked in to the economics recently but last i heard they are losing money big time.

Overon wrote on May 21, 2025, 17:39:

RogueSix wrote on May 21, 2025, 17:05:
I'm in full boycott mode as far as Micro$hit and their lame-ass PC garbage infestation with Xbox crap (including GamePass) is concerned but anyone who doesn't mind head-diving into that heap of rotten stinkin' dung has definitely gotten access to some nice swag recently. COE33, Oblivion Remastered and this one is not too shabby for a $1 sub.

As far as Steam player numbers are concerned, DOOM TDA has performed abysmally poor compared to other recent GamePass releases like the aforementioned COE33 and Oblivion Remastered.

A peak of 31K players is slightly advanced indie territory but nowhere even close to AAA numbers. Even Dragon Age Failguard had almost three times more players than DOOOOOOOM lulz .

The claim is that Doom The Dark Ages got to 3 million players 7x faster than Doom Eternal did. Can you actually address that instead of comparing it to other games and using other metrics?

What is there to address?

DOOM Eternal 105K player peak on Steam. DOOM TDA 31K player peak on Steam. Eternal had three times more peak players on Steam while TDA supposedly outperformed it by a factor of 7 as far as overall player numbers are concerned.

No one knows how M$ is collecting that info. Does it count already when someone has just initiated the download/install? Is there a time component or does everyone count who has launched the game even for just one second?

I'm not impressed by the GamePass numbers. That sub is like a "free" candy store and a blight on gaming by devaluing games. Tons of people randomly click on all the shit that looks/sounds familiar or popular, (maybe) play it for a few minutes and move on to the next one.

Everyone can see from the Steam numbers that the game is a massive flop as far as sales are concerned. The absence of M$ boasting about a rise in GamePass subscription numbers also tells us that it isn't a subscription booster. It obviously just got quite a bit of "drive-by" action from people who are subbed anyway ("free" candy for the taking).

That said, M$ certainly doesn't (need to) give a shit. Their net income last quarter was $25.8bn. They can easily afford a couple million more flops like DOOM TDA .

RogueSix wrote on May 21, 2025, 17:05:
I'm in full boycott mode as far as Micro$hit and their lame-ass PC garbage infestation with Xbox crap (including GamePass) is concerned but anyone who doesn't mind head-diving into that heap of rotten stinkin' dung has definitely gotten access to some nice swag recently. COE33, Oblivion Remastered and this one is not too shabby for a $1 sub.

As far as Steam player numbers are concerned, DOOM TDA has performed abysmally poor compared to other recent GamePass releases like the aforementioned COE33 and Oblivion Remastered.

A peak of 31K players is slightly advanced indie territory but nowhere even close to AAA numbers. Even Dragon Age Failguard had almost three times more players than DOOOOOOOM lulz .

The claim is that Doom The Dark Ages got to 3 million players 7x faster than Doom Eternal did. Can you actually address that instead of comparing it to other games and using other metrics?

It will actually sell good when it gets a significant sale I bet.
That's when I intend to buy.

I'm about 40% through it, playing on Game pass. It's very cool and I like it infinitely more than Eternal. The mech / dragon stuff... probably could have been cinematics but they are a nice change of pace.

I'm in full boycott mode as far as Micro$hit and their lame-ass PC garbage infestation with Xbox crap (including GamePass) is concerned but anyone who doesn't mind head-diving into that heap of rotten stinkin' dung has definitely gotten access to some nice swag recently. COE33, Oblivion Remastered and this one is not too shabby for a $1 sub.

As far as Steam player numbers are concerned, DOOM TDA has performed abysmally poor compared to other recent GamePass releases like the aforementioned COE33 and Oblivion Remastered.

A peak of 31K players is slightly advanced indie territory but nowhere even close to AAA numbers. Even Dragon Age Failguard had almost three times more players than DOOOOOOOM lulz .