Mr. Tact wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 19:20:

jdreyer wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 18:58:
...I'm sure he wouldn't get 50% by actual humans on Twitter.

Why not? 74m people voted for him in 2020, and I'm guessing a large majority of them still would.

Unless he is convicted of a crime (unlikely) or has a major stroke/heart attack/whatever I fully expect him to win the GOP nomination. And his chances of winning the general election could be as high as 50/50.

Most of the people who voted for him don't use Twitter.

Mr. Tact wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 21:33:

The Flying Penguin wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 20:00:
I'm not counting him out as he is as hard to get rid of as a cock roach, but Trump won in 2016 because of independents like me, moderate republicans who didn't know him, and maybe even a few moderate dems who despised Hilary and didn't vote at all or maybe even voted for him. It was the perfect storm. I can't see that happening again... unless maybe Hilary runs

12 million more voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. You are fooling yourself. It will be the same thing all over again. Checkout this opinion piece in Rolling Stone.

Almost 1/3 of Trump's 11.2 million increased votes likely came from a reduction in votes for conservative 3rd-party candidates when comparing 2016 to 2020. So figure about 7.7 million new votes from greater turnout.

By comparison, Biden got about 8% of his increase in votes over Hillary from a reduction in votes for liberal 3rd-party candidates when comparing 2016 to 2020. So figure about 14.2 million new votes from greater turnout.

Ultimately, Trump got 11.2 million votes more than in 2016 while Biden got 15.4 million more votes than Hillary did in 2016.

2020 was notably a big increase in voter turnout (about a 17% increase from 2016) but we saw similar in 2004 (16% increase) and 1992 (14% increase with enthusiasm for unusually strong 3rd-party candidates).

Typically, increases in total votes is middle single digits or even declines (2012, 1996, and 1988). Enthusiasm matters, as does incumbency, and partisanship. Consider that Herbert Hoover won just shy of 40% of the vote in 1932 when unemployment was 24%.

The Half Elf wrote on Nov 22, 2022, 02:49:
Did you actually read his response to why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twitter?
Fuck sake man at least read the reason.

I read it, so what? He let a bunch of other awful assholes back on the platform at the same time. Regardless of what he said, keeping Alex Jones off is just good business, no advertiser will use his platform period if he allows it. Should we give him internet points for doing the right thing one time, especially when it's quite convenient for him?

The Half Elf wrote on Nov 22, 2022, 02:49:

RedEye9 wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 11:51:
I see how it works now.
If you spread lies and conspiracies while claiming that you’re a billionaire, you get reinstated.
But if you spread lies and conspiracies and owe a billion in fines and restitution, you don’t get reinstated.
How is this free speechs.

Did you actually read his response to why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twitter?
Fuck sake man at least read the reason.

Yeah. Because of two things:
1) it actually impacts him personally, and as a libertarian he thinks everyone should be free to do anything, except on issues he's personally impacted, and he lacks empathy to see how other issues are similar
2) he's a hypocrite that forgets the time he used the impending death of children in a Thai cave to advance his own fame and fortune, only to try to ruin the life of the man who actually did save those children by making endless claims that the man was a pedophile and that he had a child wife, all of which Musk then cowardly lied about in court and claimed that "pedo guy" didn't mean pedophile and that the attacks on the age of the wife were unconnected

RedEye9 wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 11:51:
I see how it works now.
If you spread lies and conspiracies while claiming that you’re a billionaire, you get reinstated.
But if you spread lies and conspiracies and owe a billion in fines and restitution, you don’t get reinstated.
How is this free speechs.

Did you actually read his response to why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twitter?
Fuck sake man at least read the reason.

The Flying Penguin wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 20:00:
I'm not counting him out as he is as hard to get rid of as a cock roach, but Trump won in 2016 because of independents like me, moderate republicans who didn't know him, and maybe even a few moderate dems who despised Hilary and didn't vote at all or maybe even voted for him. It was the perfect storm. I can't see that happening again... unless maybe Hilary runs

12 million more voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. You are fooling yourself. It will be the same thing all over again. Checkout this opinion piece in Rolling Stone.

jdreyer wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 18:58:
Twitter boss Elon Musk keeps conspiracy theorist Alex Jones off platform.

There are stories that bots were mostly responsible for Trump's reinstatement poll going over 50%. The man couldn't get the popular vote twice, I'm sure he wouldn't get 50% by actual humans on Twitter.

FWIW - and ignoring the fact that there have been variously strong or negligible 3rd-party candidates in some elections over the past few decades - Trump maintained one of the poorest showings of percentage of popular vote for the past 11 Presidential elections - earning 46.1% in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020.

That places him behind 13 others in races - Mitt Romney (2012), Dubya (2000 and 2004), Hillary (2016), Al Gore (2000), Bill Clinton (1996), Reagan (1980 and 1984), Obama (2008 and 2012), H.W. Bush (1988), and Biden (2020). 7 of the past 11 elections have yielded a winner with over 50% of the popular vote. Reagan did it twice (1980 and 1984), H.W. Bush did it (1988), Dubya did it once (2004), Obama did it twice (2008 and 2012), and Biden did it (2020).

Only 7 candidates finished with a smaller percentage of votes than Trump, and 2 of them (1992) were due to Ross Perot's unusually high 18.9% as a 3rd-party candidate. McCain and Dukakis tied at 45.7%, Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43% (when Ross Perot won 18.9% as the strongest 3rd-party candidate in decades), Carter at 41% in 1980, Dole at 40.7% in 1996, Mondale at 40.6% in 1984, and H.W. Bush in 1992 at 37.5% (again, the year when Ross Perot won 18.9% in his 3rd-party run).

Mr. Tact wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 19:20:

jdreyer wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 18:58:
...I'm sure he wouldn't get 50% by actual humans on Twitter.

Why not? 74m people voted for him in 2020, and I'm guessing a large majority of them still would.

Unless he is convicted of a crime (unlikely) or has a major stroke/heart attack/whatever I fully expect him to win the GOP nomination. And his chances of winning the general election could be as high as 50/50.

I'm not counting him out as he is as hard to get rid of as a cock roach, but Trump won in 2016 because of independents like me, moderate republicans who didn't know him, and maybe even a few moderate dems who despised Hilary and didn't vote at all or maybe even voted for him. It was the perfect storm. I can't see that happening again... unless maybe Hilary runs

jdreyer wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 18:58:
Twitter boss Elon Musk keeps conspiracy theorist Alex Jones off platform.

There are stories that bots were mostly responsible for Trump's reinstatement poll going over 50%. The man couldn't get the popular vote twice, I'm sure he wouldn't get 50% by actual humans on Twitter.

Musk: Twitter is just infested with bots, I'll clean it up.

Also Musk, after not cleaning up the bots: I'm gonna use public polls, on the internet, to decide who gets to use Twitter!

jdreyer wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 18:58:
...I'm sure he wouldn't get 50% by actual humans on Twitter.

Why not? 74m people voted for him in 2020, and I'm guessing a large majority of them still would.

Unless he is convicted of a crime (unlikely) or has a major stroke/heart attack/whatever I fully expect him to win the GOP nomination. And his chances of winning the general election could be as high as 50/50.

Twitter boss Elon Musk keeps conspiracy theorist Alex Jones off platform.

There are stories that bots were mostly responsible for Trump's reinstatement poll going over 50%. The man couldn't get the popular vote twice, I'm sure he wouldn't get 50% by actual humans on Twitter.

RedEye9 wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 14:18:
Sandy Hook families sued Alex Jones.
Then he started moving money around.
Records show Jones transferred millions from his media company to firms that he or his family members controlled
gifted washington post article https://wapo.st/3tTdbqI

This year, Jones started paying his personal trainer $100,000 a week to help ship supplements and other merchandise, a Free Speech Systems attorney said in court. A company managed by Jones’s sister and listed as a “supplier or vendor” was paid $240,000, financial records show.

Yeah, he's been less than subtle, which is why a judge froze his accounts. You'd think with the kind of money he was trying to hide, he would have hired someone who was actually good at hiding it. They'll follow the rather large and obvious paper trail he's left behind. The attorneys representing the plaintiffs are taking this quite personally and have vowed to find any money he's tried to hide. One can only hope there's some tax crime involved he will also face charges for.

Sandy Hook families sued Alex Jones.
Then he started moving money around.
Records show Jones transferred millions from his media company to firms that he or his family members controlled
gifted washington post article https://wapo.st/3tTdbqI

This year, Jones started paying his personal trainer $100,000 a week to help ship supplements and other merchandise, a Free Speech Systems attorney said in court. A company managed by Jones’s sister and listed as a “supplier or vendor” was paid $240,000, financial records show.

RedEye9 wrote on Nov 21, 2022, 11:51:
I see how it works now.
If you spread lies and conspiracies while claiming that you’re a billionaire, you get reinstated.
But if you spread lies and conspiracies and owe a billion in fines and restitution, you don’t get reinstated.
How is this free speechs.

That's cynical and way wrong! /s

It's actually: if you spread hate in a way that personally impacts Musk, then you're bad and banned, but if you do it in a way that doesn't directly impact him, you're welcome back.
It's the conservative way. How often do you hear a conservative say they didn't care about abortion until they had an unplanned pregnancy they weren't ready for, or didn't care about LGBTQ until their child came out, or some similar variation?

I see how it works now.
If you spread lies and conspiracies while claiming that you’re a billionaire, you get reinstated.
But if you spread lies and conspiracies and owe a billion in fines and restitution, you don’t get reinstated.
How is this free speechs.