Thanks guys. Fun read. Great start to the day.
Now where did I put that gun?

Oh, while I agree that climate change, in the immediate fresh water accessibility (hello, Southwest), I can still control for some issues by getting dual citizenship, even if I can't control for all

The research shows the global heating to date will cause an absolute minimum sea-level rise of 27cm (10.6in) from Greenland alone as 110tn tonnes of ice melt.
...
“It is a very conservative rock-bottom minimum,” said Prof Jason Box from the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Geus), who led the research. “Realistically, we will see this figure more than double within this century.”
...
“The minimum of 27cm is the sea-level rise deficit that we have accrued to date and it’s going to get paid out, no matter what we do going forward,” said Dr William Colgan, also at Geus. “Whether it’s coming in 100 years or 150 years, it’s coming. And the sea-level rise we are committed to is growing at present, because of the climate trajectory we’re on.”

So, yeah -- coastal areas are goners. However, I don't see a total collapse coming in my lifetime. But hey, whatever -- even in a worst case scenario, I'm fine with it since there is nothing I can do to stop it and at most I'll only have to live with it for a couple of years.

Mr. Tact wrote on Aug 29, 2022, 13:02:
But I don't think it is necessarily inevitable, let alone imminent. But none of us know for sure one way or the other.

Except we do. This is just one data point but it is a reliable one that is current. A foot level sea level change, which is the best case scenario, is catastrophic on its own. Venice, Amsterdam, Hamburg, St. Petersburg, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and lower Manhattan would be significantly damaged if not wiped out completely. A three foot rise would cover most of Florida and every coastal city.

Think about that just from an economic standpoint. Long Beach, Houston, and New Orleans, the top three cargo ports for the US, would be completely unusable. That means shipments of goods and, most importantly, food would grind to a halt. That's not "it might be happening" it's "This is happening right now and there's not a goddamned thing we can do about it."

I'm not pessimistic, I'm a realist. I trust science 100% and this is what climate science is telling us. Data point after data point, sample after sample. This will occur in our lifetime because it is happening right now. The only thing we can't yet fully gauge is the worst possible outcome. But a one foot sea level rise is guaranteed, minimum.

Even though I believe things are going to get worse, I'm not as pessimistic as BoP. I think predicting the fall of life as we know it (especially here in the West) is not completely unreasonable, it might happen. But I don't think it is necessarily inevitable, let alone imminent. But none of us know for sure one way or the other. It is effectively unknowable since we can not accurately predict what decisions humans might make in the future. Where is Hari Seldon when you need him?

no one but you cares if you starve, freeze, burn, or dehydrate.

You forgot “if you get shot.”
But they do care and I have proof. Insert bajillion links of pols tweeting Thoughts and Prayers.

Emigrating to a different country is only going to delay the inevitable impact of what is forthcoming.

When the US falls (not if), it will have a domino effect. The economic effect alone will be catastrophic. Think of Europe after the fall of the Western Roman Empire. China will go next without its largest trade partner hoovering up its trade goods followed swiftly by western Europe which also imports loads of Chinese goods. When China goes, so does SE Asia. The Middle East is next because there's now not enough people buying oil to sustain their operations. How swiftly those dominoes fall depends entirely on how twitchy the leaders are and how they react. It won't be a doomsday prepper's wet dream instant collapse but it will be a collapse all the same. Whether it completes in our lifetime or not is debatable. Nonetheless, we will all feel the impacts of it. Hell, we're all feeling the impacts of the pre-show, as it were, today.

Pile on climate change where you have ever increasing shortages of water in some areas that grew far too comfortable with its continued existence and floods in areas that aren't remotely used to it, and now you also have a shortage of basic goods required for survival. Drought, wildfires, massive hurricanes and the like will become par normal year after year.

When all that happens, the first people up against the wall are foreigners. It's human nature to "other" as fast and hard as possible when things go sideways. There are thousands of examples in our history of it happening. It will happen again. You can't buy or emigrate your way out of the effects of failure, collapse, and change. You can delay it but not for the whole of your lifespan unless your lifespan terminates in a decade or less. That doesn't even consider the raiding and looting that will happen on a large scale.

I'm not giddily playing the doomsday prophet, either. It's just what the publicly available data points to. Also, given the decades of slow, ineffective action from government around the world, there's not a chance in Hell that we are going to use policy or science to avoid this. We may not even be able to mitigate it in the slightest, long term.

The best one can do is be as self-sufficient as possible and realize that, outside of yourself, no one gives a shit about you and no one but you cares if you starve, freeze, burn, or dehydrate.

Beamer wrote on Aug 29, 2022, 08:42:

Mr. Tact wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 21:59:
I figure I'll live another 20 years, give or take 5 years, and I doubt things will get significantly better in that time. It is far more likely things will get worse.

I think I've said it here before, but I've been working my ass off to get EU citizenship this summer. We keep seeing stories about the megarich doing so as their plan B. I see no reason not to have the same plan B.

I hear that - this country has been going downhill for a long time while countries in the EU have been excelling in pretty much every area. It's like this country is comprised of 30% staunch wingnuts on either side of a shitty, corrupted, two-party system and then you have 40% who just don't know what to do and vote for "the lesser evil", lol (those percentages are just wild speculation from observation). I don't think I'd move to the EU, though. South America has been calling my name for years to live by the ocean.

Beamer wrote on Aug 29, 2022, 08:42:
I think I've said it here before, but I've been working my ass off to get EU citizenship this summer. We keep seeing stories about the megarich doing so as their plan B. I see no reason not to have the same plan B.

As a retired person who isn't "rich" I'm guessing even if I wanted to try for that I probably couldn't manage it. And as much as I think US politics are completely inane and insane I don't think the UK or EU are doing significantly better. They do better on health in most of the EU, but they have their own problems with rising nationalism and far right extremists.

But being the lazy bum I am, even it I could I doubt I would. It would simply be too much effort, especially if learning a second language was necessary. Plus as a "get off my lawn" old fogie I am fairly set in my ways and would miss my current conveniences. All that said, if someone has the will and ability to make that move, it would not be an unreasonable thing to do. I hope things work out for you Beamer and you are able to relocate to wherever suits you.

anonymous anonymous wrote on Aug 29, 2022, 00:05:
You people on the Left really need to push back your divisive and authoritarian rhetoric, if you expect the USA to survive the next few decades.

Ah yes, the people on the left with their silly trusted institutions and government services. They're the ones with the divisive and authoritarian rhetoric, not the entire Republican party at this point

If the US blows up in the next two decades, it will be the direct fault of the republican party and it's embracement of populist dictators in the making. No respect for the rule of law, no respect for democracy, no respect for their fellow citizen. The Republican Party is completely bankrupt of principles, morality and frankly sanity at this stage.

Mr. Tact wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 21:59:
I figure I'll live another 20 years, give or take 5 years, and I doubt things will get significantly better in that time. It is far more likely things will get worse.

I think I've said it here before, but I've been working my ass off to get EU citizenship this summer. We keep seeing stories about the megarich doing so as their plan B. I see no reason not to have the same plan B.

Obviously written by some hipster raised on social media who just can't fathom that social media has set civilization back a hundred years or more. Someone who never experienced a time when things only went into print or broadcast if they were vetted and the publisher/broadcaster was liable if they printed falsehoods or liable.

Social media nurtures stupid, fearful, and hateful ideas while obscuring factual, positive and cooperative ideas. Do the math.

anonymous anonymous wrote on Aug 29, 2022, 00:05:
What? Big government and progressives are not to be criticized? People who don't agree with you are extremists and Nazis?

This is disingenuous bullshit and you know it. Go to any popular conservative forum and it's all conspiracy theories and ranting about laptops and grooming and whatever else. You can criticize all you want, but if you have to recycle anti-Semitic conspiracy theories to do so, then you can't, or rather, shouldn't.

Didn't the governor of New York publicly admonish MAGA people and told them to leave the state? Doesn't that seem insane to you, since that would cost the state a ton of tax revenue that may not be simple to recover?

Did they all leave the state? Did any real person think they would?

Is that what you all really want, the country to split completely into red and blue sections? LOL that the USA would survive if that would even be possible.

The USA isn't a country worth saving if we keep going like we are. The existence of a particular nation with particular borders isn't something to get weepy over. History is filled with empires that rise and fall, and the US as it currently exists is in its waning years. Why would conservatives, who want to run their states like its 1822 instead of 2022, want the country to continue anyway? The Constitution and all those regulations and civil rights laws just get in the way anyway.

You people on the Left really need to push back your divisive and authoritarian rhetoric, if you expect the USA to survive the next few decades.

Oh yeah. It's a good thing the right wingers aren't pushing anything divisive or authoritarian, yeah? The Republican party hasn't chased out any conservative who doesn't worship Trump and back his election lies either I suppose? Conservatives aren't drinking QAnon koolaid at a rate of some 40%?

Saboth wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 18:15:
"As a society, we need to discuss if our communities should have fewer people exposed to extremist groups, even if those who do engage become ever more isolated and radicalised" No, it's not really up for discussion. You don't allow extremists, terrorists, Nazis and the like free roam through your society. We've allowed Fox, Newsmax, OAN, Rush and the like free reign to radicalize 30-40% of our population against the government, educators, progressives, doctors, scientists, and they have pushed the idea that violent insurrection is a viable alternative to democracy. Now we have Hitler wannabees stealing our nation's top-secret information to use against the country or to sell, and a large portion of the population is so brainwashed they think *law enforcement* is in the wrong for going after this disgraced criminal.

What? Big government and progressives are not to be criticized? People who don't agree with you are extremists and Nazis?

Didn't the governor of New York publicly admonish MAGA people and told them to leave the state? Doesn't that seem insane to you, since that would cost the state a ton of tax revenue that may not be simple to recover?

Is that what you all really want, the country to split completely into red and blue sections? LOL that the USA would survive if that would even be possible.

You people on the Left really need to push back your divisive and authoritarian rhetoric, if you expect the USA to survive the next few decades.

Beamer wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 21:38:

heroin wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 21:11:
Andrew Tate is such a stupid-ass guido wannabe - but I don't think he should have been de-platformed.

I mean, he had videos calling women "property," and encouraging men to focus on teenage girls because they're easier to manipulate and control than ones in their 20s.

At what point is a company allowed to say they don't want to amplify that message?

And he still has plenty of platforms, including one where he charges young men to hear him speak

never heard of him
A quick Google search reveals that he won't be missed.
Oh well.

Excellent points, BoP. Although I have to say, the US founding fathers were fairly clear and articulate in the Declaration of Independence about what their grievances against the Crown were. Kind of difficult to think of the authors of that document as extremists. But I'm sure you are right and they were considered as such then. If anyone on the far right could clearly articulate what their "problem" with the government was, I'd certainly listen to them at the very least. Of course these days very few people on the right or left can clearly express the logical reasons for supporting their positions. Usually the best they can manage is to parrot the talking points from their various favorite media outlets.

Personally, I've pretty much given up. I figure I'll live another 20 years, give or take 5 years, and I doubt things will get significantly better in that time. It is far more likely things will get worse. And that's before you consider what Mother Nature has in store for us after we have fucked with her for so long. So, my plan is pretty much to sit back and watch the shit show cause I honestly don't think there is anything I can do about it. I have hope humanity will find a way through, but even if I had the ability to collect on a 100 year bet on it -- I'm not sure I would want to risk my money on it.

heroin wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 21:11:
Andrew Tate is such a stupid-ass guido wannabe - but I don't think he should have been de-platformed.

I mean, he had videos calling women "property," and encouraging men to focus on teenage girls because they're easier to manipulate and control than ones in their 20s.

At what point is a company allowed to say they don't want to amplify that message?

And he still has plenty of platforms, including one where he charges young men to hear him speak

Andrew Tate is such a stupid-ass guido wannabe - but I don't think he should have been de-platformed.

What counts as "extremism"? Anything we don't like? Anything that ardently challenges the status quo? Are we going to simply rely on Justice Stewart's "I know it when I see it" belief?

The Founding Fathers were undoubtedly considered extremists and their views extremism (by modern standards) by the royalists in both their local towns and the colonies as whole. Yet, from that came the United States. Although non-violent, civil rights activists of the 60s were undoubtedly considered extremists by the governments of the southern states due to their disruptive actions and speech.

What of me? I am ferociously vehement in my protection of my digital privacy from both human and systemic intrusion. I openly advocate for others to do the same and often recommend or promote tools that allow them to do so. I also openly advocate for encryption. In the view of certain TLA government agencies within the US and other governments around the world, that would undoubtedly qualify as extremism.

Objectively, I think it is fair to say we do not want behaviors or speech specifically designed to violate the rights and liberties of other people. I'm definitely onboard with that as I believe that falls well within the purview of negative rights which are well codified.

However, I don't think we can say "all extremism is bad". Beyond being almost childishly simplistic, it's also an incredibly slippery slope. Most especially when the law is concerned. Laws themselves are fine, it's the agencies that are enforcing them whose interpretations we need to be the most mindful and restrictive of. We know from experience that federal, state, and local agencies tend to be overly broad in their interpretation of laws so they have a wide latitude to punish, harass, and otherwise discomfit groups and peoples they find irritating, annoying, or that embarrass them. Anyone remember Aaron Swartz, for example?

Thus, I think we need to be extremely careful in how we define "extremism" and what, exactly, that entails and we also need to have very clear, well defined limits on how that definition takes form and how it is adjudicated.

Saboth wrote on Aug 28, 2022, 18:15:
"As a society, we need to discuss if our communities should have fewer people exposed to extremist groups, even if those who do engage become ever more isolated and radicalised" No, it's not really up for discussion. You don't allow extremists, terrorists, Nazis and the like free roam through your society. We've allowed Fox, Newsmax, OAN, Rush and the like free reign to radicalize 30-40% of our population against the government, educators, progressives, doctors, scientists, and they have pushed the idea that violent insurrection is a viable alternative to democracy. Now we have Hitler wannabees stealing our nation's top-secret information to use against the country or to sell, and a large portion of the population is so brainwashed they think *law enforcement* is in the wrong for going after this disgraced criminal.

I have no notes. This is great