MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Sep 10, 2021, 14:55:
Too inconvenient and too expensive... well maybe, I guess, depends on the definition of average person, but I think we'll see a pretty rapid shift to electric in our lifetimes, maybe even within the next 5-10 years. We'll probably see the start of that in the US when Ford releases their Lightning truck... next year?
I based my expensive statement on the median American income for 2020 which was $68,400.00. However, that median is largely based on a two income household so we divide it in half to get the median income per person which is $34,200.00. An $80K Tesla is well out of reach of the median average income. Even replacing the batteries on, say, a Toyota Prius is between $3,000 to $8,000 depending where a person goes to get the work done. Again, that kind of upfront lump sum is going to be a hard, if not impossible, pill for someone making less than $35K annually to swallow.
Oh, the "Lightning" that isn't. I have to be transparent here. I am the besmitten owner of a 2nd gen Lightning. I'm not particularly fond of Ford slapping the name on what is an EF-150 with nothing about it that lives up to the Lightning marque.
But let's take a look at the technical merits of the forthcoming 3rd gen Lightning. The specs are here
, straight from Ford. The extended battery allegedly gives you a 300 mile range. However, in the fine print it says "Actual range varies with conditions such as external environment, vehicle use, vehicle maintenance, lithium-ion battery age and state of health." That means you are definitely not
getting 300 miles when you're either towing something or you have a load in its pathetic little bed.
Even the charging time is "target" and not "actual". But, even so, let's go with Ford's numbers. The highest charging rate you are likely to find that you can install at your home (with a separate 50A drop from the power company just for the charger) is 48A. At that rate, it will take you 13 hours to fully charge the truck for another 300 miles. 13 hours!
But let's say you get lucky and there are a plethora of 150kW DCFC (Direct Current Fast Charging) stations even all the way out in bumfuck Marfa,Texas. You'll still be waiting 41 minutes for a full charge for another 300 miles.
Let's also say you wanted to drive from my house to Big Bend National Park to spend a week there (dog knows why in the middle of the summer, but just roll with it). That's a distance of ~470miles. Maybe you want to go camping, maybe you want to go trail riding on your horse. So you're towing. Let's be super conservative and say you only see a 33% decrease in battery performance for that trip. So now you're down to 200 miles. That's two stops for charging and an additional 2 hours added to the drive time. That's assuming those 150kW DCFC chargers are in abundance, which they're not.
Now we're back in reality and the numbers, even Ford's fudged "target" numbers, make this truck a non-starter for anyone who uses a truck as an actual truck and not as a garage queen status symbol.
Like I said, electric vehicles just aren't realistic for the average person for a variety of purposes if you live somewhere other than a densely populated urban environment with chargers in abundance. They're too expensive when TCO is factored in (and you should for any vehicle) and too inconvenient when you can drive an ICE powered vehicle to a gas station, which are ubiquitous, fill up in ten minutes, and be on your way.
"Lock the doors. Kill the light. No one's coming...home tonight. It's getting colder."
If you would like help or further details on a technical discussion we're having, email me at bnhelp (at sign) keepusiel.net .