VaranDragon wrote on Jul 7, 2021, 04:56:
Yeah, what make\model? Please do tell, I would buy a Tesla if\when they ever decide to make electrics cars affordable to most of the general populace. I can't justify paying double the price of a regular car of the same class.

I drive a Model 3 Long Range dual motor and write it off through work. It's a Tesla cliche but it is definitely the best car I've ever owned. It is not perfect by any means but the overall package is fantastic. I've paid next to nothing in maintenance. The cost of electricity has been roughly $300 a year give or take. You pay a lot up front but don't put as much into it over time. The key is keeping it for 5-7 years to fully offset the upfront cost. It is not the most luxurious interior but it's "good" and I really like the minimalist approach. It's fun to drive, like really fun. It's incredibly nimble and corners well due to the weight of the pack. In the winter it's a tank and it's also the safest car on the road in North America. Tesla is the only company with a good charging network, its years ahead of the competition. There's a lot to like about it. Autopilot makes commuting and long trips a dream. Once you drive electric you're never going back, don't test drive unless you're ready to buy because you will.

I think the SR+ is the real value proposition though, with the rebates it's pretty attractive and most people do not need 300+ miles in a single trip. You lose a few knickknacks like footwell lights but you get a much lower sticker price and can put the money towards more meaningful things. The larger battery is just not necessary for the average driver, even with degradation taken into account which is roughly 2-5% in the first year then 1% every year after that.

When I did a 6 year total cost of ownership comparison with 5 cars/SUVs, only the Toyota Corolla came out ahead. And my days of driving a Corolla are over

jdreyer wrote on Jul 7, 2021, 03:39:

Sepharo wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 15:03:
For the second year in a row I did a 5 hour trip (10 hours round trip) "up north" for the 4th of July holiday weekend.
Stopped for about 15 minutes of charging half way through the drive, allowed the automated system do all the steering, lane changes, and highway interchanges, no issues.
I'll never go back to a non-electric, non-self steering car. I look forward to them getting better in the near future.
Even since I got the car in March 2020 there have been huge improvements in what it is capable of... mostly around city streets like stopping (and going) at traffic lights etc. about the only thing it doesn't do is turns at intersections (although as mentioned it will do a highway interchange or exit ramp), and that full FSD beta that people have shown does do those city intersection turns.

What's that, Tesla Model 3?

Yeah Model 3 Dual Motor

The payment is pretty close to what my upgraded Taurus SHO was.
My requirements for over a decade have been:
-Fast
-Sedan
-Luxurious
-High tech
-Domestic

SHO used to meet all of those, then they stopped making it.
There were literally no other cars on the market meeting those requirements other than Tesla at this point.
So yeah, for nearly the same price I got a WAAAAY better car.
Faster and of course way smarter.
The electric part wasn't even on my list as you see... but not going to a gas station for about a year and a half now has been very nice.
I drove a non-electric twice in that period, just hopping in a relatives car in a situation where my car was blocked in a driveway during a party or whatever... it's insane how rumbly and squishy it feels. Literally feels defective, like you hit the gas or break and aren't even sure if it's working etc.

This comment was edited on Jul 7, 2021, 14:06.

Sepharo wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 15:03:
For the second year in a row I did a 5 hour trip (10 hours round trip) "up north" for the 4th of July holiday weekend.
Stopped for about 15 minutes of charging half way through the drive, allowed the automated system do all the steering, lane changes, and highway interchanges, no issues.
I'll never go back to a non-electric, non-self steering car. I look forward to them getting better in the near future.
Even since I got the car in March 2020 there have been huge improvements in what it is capable of... mostly around city streets like stopping (and going) at traffic lights etc. about the only thing it doesn't do is turns at intersections (although as mentioned it will do a highway interchange or exit ramp), and that full FSD beta that people have shown does do those city intersection turns.

Yeah, what make\model? Please do tell, I would buy a Tesla if\when they ever decide to make electrics cars affordable to most of the general populace. I can't justify paying double the price of a regular car of the same class.

Sepharo wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 15:03:
For the second year in a row I did a 5 hour trip (10 hours round trip) "up north" for the 4th of July holiday weekend.
Stopped for about 15 minutes of charging half way through the drive, allowed the automated system do all the steering, lane changes, and highway interchanges, no issues.
I'll never go back to a non-electric, non-self steering car. I look forward to them getting better in the near future.
Even since I got the car in March 2020 there have been huge improvements in what it is capable of... mostly around city streets like stopping (and going) at traffic lights etc. about the only thing it doesn't do is turns at intersections (although as mentioned it will do a highway interchange or exit ramp), and that full FSD beta that people have shown does do those city intersection turns.

What's that, Tesla Model 3?

Beamer wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 10:54:

I still think car ownership will be a thing of the past. It'll be hard for a lot of people to rationalize, but right now we pay $20k+ for something that spends 90% of its life sitting in a parking lot or driveway. It'll be easier for someone to own a large fleet that's constantly on the road, autonomously, and for us to be able to just ride hail.

That's how I see it. Without a driver's salary, a ride delivery should fall to half or a third of what it is today per mile. It wouldn't make sense for most people to own a vehicle privately, especially in the city.

There are issues. Sometimes you're on a shopping trip with multiple stops, so what happens to the items you buy but can't carry into the next place? I don't know. Maybe, with smart routing, that car only does small, nearby trips, with your stuff locked in a compartment, and you use the same car for the next trip. Maybe that car goes home and everyone has special locked bins it can auto-empty into. Sounds solvable.

You wouldn't take your purchases with you, silly. A completely separate drone delivers it to your abode whilst you continue shopping.

I'll take the self-driving cars and self-made billionaires over manually driven cars and trust fund babies, thanks.

For the second year in a row I did a 5 hour trip (10 hours round trip) "up north" for the 4th of July holiday weekend.
Stopped for about 15 minutes of charging half way through the drive, allowed the automated system do all the steering, lane changes, and highway interchanges, no issues.
I'll never go back to a non-electric, non-self steering car. I look forward to them getting better in the near future.
Even since I got the car in March 2020 there have been huge improvements in what it is capable of... mostly around city streets like stopping (and going) at traffic lights etc. about the only thing it doesn't do is turns at intersections (although as mentioned it will do a highway interchange or exit ramp), and that full FSD beta that people have shown does do those city intersection turns.

Hackers can bribe my employer with ransomware, steal 'my' personal data from a large company, mimic my social media accounts, plunder my gaming inventory, and use my smart fridge to creep on me...

...but they won't hack my car and crash it, because I'll never give up the freedom of driving my own damn car, with my own damn hands and feet, and take it wherever I damn well please

Beamer wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 10:54:
I still think car ownership will be a thing of the past. It'll be hard for a lot of people to rationalize, but right now we pay $20k+ for something that spends 90% of its life sitting in a parking lot or driveway.

This assumes we are able to actually do things that help society overall and not care about capitalistic wants. Yes this is right if we live in that world, but as we know we are far from that still, that said there is a younger generation pushing for it, we'll see how long they can withstand the resistance. But there will be the anti-vax type crowd. I want my car, gas car, want to drive it when and where I want to, fuck you crowd. You will have the people that make a lot of money off cars from car mfg's to service to after market, they will lobby and win a lot.

What we will see is in Europe some countries pulling this off, they are working towards that socialistic ideal, which is still a mix of socialism and capitalism which we have today, just more toward socialism there. Logically it makes sense, but greed is real.

Germany: Unions, working towards 100% renewable, medical for all, real consumer protections, things America led in and then forgot about. Some other countries have similar perks, one maybe even has UBI now. It's happening in Europe, they seem way more apt using if it's better for more then do it, we'll get to watch and review.

DrSquick wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 23:33:
I absolutely agree that self-driving vehicles are inevitable, and I think the data shows they are already 10x better at avoiding crashes than humans. But I think we are a long ways away from wide adoption, and I don't know the solution. Even presented with concrete data that "self driving vehicles reduce your risk of a crash 10x" my wife still believes she is better than a self driving vehicle and absolutely will not consider one. For some reason, the average person ignores the 12.4/100k annual death rate for vehicle crashes and focuses on the dozen (or less) that automated cars have.

I totally agree that the technology needs to improve and will improve, but there will never be a time in the next hundred years that there are zero automated car deaths. The bar should be fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles, which was 1.1 in 2019. But for every 500 million miles an automated car drives, all that people will remember is the 1 person that died. In every other area we'd say an 80% reduction in deaths is an incredible achievement. But in automated cars, people seem ready to throw the whole technology out.

Sounds like the anti-vax crowd all over again and I don't disagree, doesn't mean the exact same people, just the same shades of thought process.

To me there are so many weather/road situations out there, it just has to be daunting trying to program for them all. I have a place that has 3 roundabouts damn near connected to one another I still don't entirely grasp the situation from a First person view and the first time was like I'm just driving this and hoping for the best. Construction situations that defy logic, ice, oh yeah around steep mountain bends a real test of faith there!

theyarecomingforyou wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 15:43:

WaltSee wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 12:48:
Hah-hah, nice comment, Blue...;) One of the oddest things I've come across in recent years is a belief that the dollar-store computers used to "self-drive" automobiles are better drivers than human beings.

They don't have to be better than the average driver. They just have to be better than all the drunk, tired, distracted, selfish, angry, lazy and drugged up drivers on the road that are wreaking havoc with people's lives. And there's no disputing that computers have much faster reaction times than humans and benefit from complete vision of their entire surroundings.

Self-driving vehicles are inevitable. It really is only a matter of time. And yes, there will still be a lot of edge cases to address for decades and decades to come.

I do agree with what you say in a way, but they have to be a lot better because it is new it will be tested in courts like you cannot believe (you can) because that is where we are at these days, sometimes for good reasons and sometimes not. If they aren't a lot better liability and insurance will do this in.

All I know if this gets any type of acceptance and numbers on the road, we are going to see some situations that are going to be mind blowing. Goes back to "to err is human, but it takes a computer to really foul things up". Like the taxi video where the guy becomes a prisoner to a rouge self driving taxi and tapes it all. I'm not saying life and death situations, just situations you would never think of, but here we are!

RedEye9 wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 10:35:
Self-driving fully autonomous cars cannot protect themselves from vehicles piloted by simians.

From your link.

Nevertheless, Tesla claims that their self-driving cars are four times better than normal cars; while in Autopilot mode, there is an estimated 1 fatality per 320 million miles driven. Source: Vox

How many self-driving cars have crashed thus far?
While there is no recent data on this issue, it’s worth noting that in 2014 alone, California had 88 accidents involving AVs; the drivers were responsible for 81 of these. What’s more, there were 62 accidents where the car was in a fully autonomous mode — only one of these AVs was at fault.

Source: Business Insider

Self-driving cars, sensors, software and AI are continuously improving
while we stay the same and some cases get worse.
The quicker we can get humans out from behind the wheel the safer the roads will be.

I still think car ownership will be a thing of the past. It'll be hard for a lot of people to rationalize, but right now we pay $20k+ for something that spends 90% of its life sitting in a parking lot or driveway. It'll be easier for someone to own a large fleet that's constantly on the road, autonomously, and for us to be able to just ride hail.

There are issues. Sometimes you're on a shopping trip with multiple stops, so what happens to the items you buy but can't carry into the next place? I don't know. Maybe, with smart routing, that car only does small, nearby trips, with your stuff locked in a compartment, and you use the same car for the next trip. Maybe that car goes home and everyone has special locked bins it can auto-empty into. Sounds solvable.

Self-driving fully autonomous cars cannot protect themselves from vehicles piloted by simians.

From your link.

Nevertheless, Tesla claims that their self-driving cars are four times better than normal cars; while in Autopilot mode, there is an estimated 1 fatality per 320 million miles driven. Source: Vox

How many self-driving cars have crashed thus far?
While there is no recent data on this issue, it’s worth noting that in 2014 alone, California had 88 accidents involving AVs; the drivers were responsible for 81 of these. What’s more, there were 62 accidents where the car was in a fully autonomous mode — only one of these AVs was at fault.

Source: Business Insider

Self-driving cars, sensors, software and AI are continuously improving
while we stay the same and some cases get worse.
The quicker we can get humans out from behind the wheel the safer the roads will be.

Death rates are about neck and neck right now human driven vs self-driven. It can only get better.

Human driven: 1.1 per 100 millions miles ( Source )
Self-driven: 1 per 100 million miles ( Source )

VaranDragon wrote on Jul 6, 2021, 04:53:

Beamer wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 22:53:
But Musk is totally a pedo guy. No getting around it.

He's what now?

It's a tongue in cheek reference to Elon calling a rescue diver a pedo.
The diver made fun of Elon's rescue tube during the Thai cave rescue.

Before you will ever see self driving cars that are not death traps, you will have to see lawn mowers that can mow anyone's lawn without special guides, programming specific to each yard, tethers, etc.

Until then lawn service trucks will always make up a substantial portion of local traffic and self driving cars will remain a come on.

jdreyer wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 20:34:

Armengar wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 16:54:
the atmosphere on mars is the least concern. the shit magnetic field and harsh radiation are the problems. having an atmosohere might make things a little better but in reality fancy shelters will be needed for more permanent habitation.

Right, without a magnetic field, how will you keep the atmosphere from being blown away by the solar winds as it was in the past? Perhaps humans can replace the atmosphere as quickly as it disappears, but it's got to come from somewhere.
And yeah, due to the radiation, most of your life on mars will be spent underground.

At 1000mbar with ~82% nitrogen and 18% oxygen atmosphere loss would be minimal in the whole scale of things, but if you wanted to completely avoid it, maybe as first thing since radiation sucks.. you simply build a radiation shield in geo-stationary orbit around Mars to prevent the solar winds from hitting da planet. As I said in my other post, if you can bring 30 billion tons of Nitrogen to Mars you literally can build whatever you want in space already, way before you bring all that Nitrogen there. Since you know, it's non trivial to mine Nitrogen from the gas giant moons and then ferry it back to Mars and seed it evenly.. and catch a few thousand ice asteroids and bring em back. Since you probably wanna raise the sea level on Mars unless you like 8km high cliffs.

And FYI, once the super heavy launcher from Space X is a thing building that will be trivial. Everything else about it is harder, and probably needs really high end automation.

If you wanted to be really fancy you could build this shield in a geostationary solar orbit so that Mars is always in it's radiation shadow (funny side-effect, it could be WAY smaller and it would still be super bright on Mars), but that really is NOT trivial

Beamer wrote on Jul 5, 2021, 22:53:
But Musk is totally a pedo guy. No getting around it.

He's what now?

I'll take the self-driving cars and self-made billionaires over manually driven cars and trust fund babies, thanks.