Out of the Blue

We finished our catch up with Ozark, which we enjoyed greatly. It can be fun to actually be slow on the uptake of a show, as this allowed us to devour all three seasons at once. This is especially true in this case, as it had an extra year between seasons two and three. But now we're in the same boat as everyone else, and according to what I see online, season four is not expected until late 2021 or early 2022. Oh well... something to look forward to.

Obituary: Sir Stirling Moss: Motor racing legend dies aged 90 after long illness. Thanks David.
Obituary: Stanley Chera, New York real estate mogul and Trump friend, has died of coronavirus complications.

Links of the Ozarks
Thanks Ant and Neutronbeam.

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45.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 09:57
45.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 09:57
Apr 14, 2020, 09:57
 
Verno wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 09:39:
I've found several COVID-19 skeptics who seem to trot out the "we don't know much about the virus, its so new!" bit as an excuse for not taking it more seriously but seem to ignore that it works both ways. I linked this earlier in the thread regarding the potential long term organ damage, although it might be paywalled (archive.is is your friend).

Good article. The above archive link http://archive.today/eo6MA
A mask is not a political statement.
It's an IQ test.
It's a compassion test.
It's a decency test.
It's a social responsibility test.
Avatar 58135
44.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 09:39
Verno
 
44.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 09:39
Apr 14, 2020, 09:39
 Verno
 
I've found several COVID-19 skeptics who seem to trot out the "we don't know much about the virus, its so new!" bit as an excuse for not taking it more seriously but seem to ignore that it works both ways. I linked this earlier in the thread regarding the potential long term organ damage, although it might be paywalled (archive.is is your friend).

Playing: FF7R
Watching: The Last Dance
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43.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 08:26
43.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 08:26
Apr 14, 2020, 08:26
 
Simon Says wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 07:25:
So yes, it's a whole new, and mostly unknown still, beast at this point. Latest reports indicates it attacks the kidneys, the peripheral and central nervous systems and the heart as well as the lungs. SOURCE

Translated, paraphrased quote from a Brooklyn specialist from the above french article from the news TV station:

"Covid-19 is a also cardiovasculary disease provoking coagulation disorders ... ( as well as ) a very complex respiratory, kidney and neurological disease"
Yeah, I was reading an article just yesterday (I think it was on NPR) about some small evidence of a cardiac component to covid-19. Which if it proves to be accurate certainly ups the danger factor of the virus. However, this information was clearly in an preliminary status further study is needed and might conclude their isn't a cardiac component.

This comment was edited on Apr 14, 2020, 09:35.
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
42.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 07:25
42.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 07:25
Apr 14, 2020, 07:25
 
jdreyer wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 06:15:
WannaLogAlready wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 05:25:
Baristan wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 01:43:
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 22:35:
...
Disease . . .Infections . . . Deaths . .Rate
flu . . . 1,000,000,000 . . .500,000 . .0.1%
SARS . . . . . . .8,098 . . . . .774 . 15.0%
H1N1 . . .2,000,000,000 . . .284,000 . .0.2%
Ebola . . . . . .28,652 . . . 11,325 . 50.0%
MERS . . . . . . .2,000 . . . . .866 . 36.0%
CV19 . . .7,000,000,000 . 40,000,000 . .0.8% (No interventions)

...
None of the rate% numbers add up.

Flu = 500k/1b = 0.05%
SARS = 774/8098 = 9.56%
H1N1 = 284k/2b = 0.01%
Ebola = 11325/28652 = 39.5%
MERS = 866/2k = 43.3%
CV19 = 40m/7b = 0.57%

A mortality rate, not CFR, is a measure of the number of deaths in a population per unit of time.

Case fatality rate, CFR, is the number of dead among the number of diagnosed, being a proportion of incidence or risk, and not always taking into account the time from diseases onset to death.

Both are not rates, incidence rates, or ratios.

Case fatality ratio is used as case fatality rate, but are not the same.

Case fatality ratio is the comparison between two different case fatality rates, expressed as ratio, sometimes comparing different diseases.

Infection fatality rate, IFR, applies to infectious disease outbreaks, being the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals.

Is related to CFR, but accounting for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections, aka not tested.

So the IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are attributed to the infected and non infected.

TL;DR enough already



Thanks. Here's one of my source docs, which points on to many more source docs.

@Baristan: Some of the numbers were ranges, so I averaged. Some were estimates. I rounded others for clarity. The exact numbers weren't the point. The point is that this is so virulent that we've literally seen nothing like it since perhaps the Spanish flu, and we know how that turned out. It's just not comparable to anything else, which is what Cutter and WaltC keep trying to do. It's its own animal, and needs to be treated as such. And yeah, 40M strikes me as too low if 7B people get the disease, but that is what the report said. At those infection rates, poor countries with no healthcare infrastructure are going to be unable to treat most of their severe cases, which will end in death.

0.8% is unrealistically optimistic, current rate worldwide is 6.273% ( SOURCE ) and it would only get worse with a full scale rapid infection.

So that 40m, multiply it by almost 10 and you get a much more accurate estimate, only the direct deaths of course, not including the collaterals from having the healthcare systems of all the nations collapse ( people who would otherwise be saved from accidents, heart attacks, etc if the healthcare system hadn't been overwhelmed ).

And then you have the potential for mutations when you give it so many hosts rendering past immunity and vaccine immunity worthless, this opens a whole new can of worms with recurrence ( not a new wave, it's not the same thing ).

So yes, it's a whole new, and mostly unknown still, beast at this point. Latest reports indicates it attacks the kidneys, the peripheral and central nervous systems and the heart as well as the lungs. SOURCE

Translated, paraphrased quote from a Brooklyn specialist from the above french article from the news TV station:

"Covid-19 is a also cardiovasculary disease provoking coagulation disorders ... ( as well as ) a very complex respiratory, kidney and neurological disease"
41.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 06:15
41.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 06:15
Apr 14, 2020, 06:15
 
WannaLogAlready wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 05:25:
Baristan wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 01:43:
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 22:35:
...
Disease . . .Infections . . . Deaths . .Rate
flu . . . 1,000,000,000 . . .500,000 . .0.1%
SARS . . . . . . .8,098 . . . . .774 . 15.0%
H1N1 . . .2,000,000,000 . . .284,000 . .0.2%
Ebola . . . . . .28,652 . . . 11,325 . 50.0%
MERS . . . . . . .2,000 . . . . .866 . 36.0%
CV19 . . .7,000,000,000 . 40,000,000 . .0.8% (No interventions)

...
None of the rate% numbers add up.

Flu = 500k/1b = 0.05%
SARS = 774/8098 = 9.56%
H1N1 = 284k/2b = 0.01%
Ebola = 11325/28652 = 39.5%
MERS = 866/2k = 43.3%
CV19 = 40m/7b = 0.57%

A mortality rate, not CFR, is a measure of the number of deaths in a population per unit of time.

Case fatality rate, CFR, is the number of dead among the number of diagnosed, being a proportion of incidence or risk, and not always taking into account the time from diseases onset to death.

Both are not rates, incidence rates, or ratios.

Case fatality ratio is used as case fatality rate, but are not the same.

Case fatality ratio is the comparison between two different case fatality rates, expressed as ratio, sometimes comparing different diseases.

Infection fatality rate, IFR, applies to infectious disease outbreaks, being the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals.

Is related to CFR, but accounting for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections, aka not tested.

So the IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are attributed to the infected and non infected.

TL;DR enough already



Thanks. Here's one of my source docs, which points on to many more source docs.

@Baristan: Some of the numbers were ranges, so I averaged. Some were estimates. I rounded others for clarity. The exact numbers weren't the point. The point is that this is so virulent that we've literally seen nothing like it since perhaps the Spanish flu, and we know how that turned out. It's just not comparable to anything else, which is what Cutter and WaltC keep trying to do. It's its own animal, and needs to be treated as such. And yeah, 40M strikes me as too low if 7B people get the disease, but that is what the report said. At those infection rates, poor countries with no healthcare infrastructure are going to be unable to treat most of their severe cases, which will end in death.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
40.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 05:25
40.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 05:25
Apr 14, 2020, 05:25
 

Baristan wrote on Apr 14, 2020, 01:43:
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 22:35:
...
Disease . . .Infections . . . Deaths . .Rate
flu . . . 1,000,000,000 . . .500,000 . .0.1%
SARS . . . . . . .8,098 . . . . .774 . 15.0%
H1N1 . . .2,000,000,000 . . .284,000 . .0.2%
Ebola . . . . . .28,652 . . . 11,325 . 50.0%
MERS . . . . . . .2,000 . . . . .866 . 36.0%
CV19 . . .7,000,000,000 . 40,000,000 . .0.8% (No interventions)

...
None of the rate% numbers add up.

Flu = 500k/1b = 0.05%
SARS = 774/8098 = 9.56%
H1N1 = 284k/2b = 0.01%
Ebola = 11325/28652 = 39.5%
MERS = 866/2k = 43.3%
CV19 = 40m/7b = 0.57%

A mortality rate, not CFR, is a measure of the number of deaths in a population per unit of time.

Case fatality rate, CFR, is the number of dead among the number of diagnosed, being a proportion of incidence or risk, and not always taking into account the time from diseases onset to death.

Both are not rates, incidence rates, or ratios.

Case fatality ratio is used as case fatality rate, but are not the same.

Case fatality ratio is the comparison between two different case fatality rates, expressed as ratio, sometimes comparing different diseases.

Infection fatality rate, IFR, applies to infectious disease outbreaks, being the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals.

Is related to CFR, but accounting for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections, aka not tested.

So the IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are attributed to the infected and non infected.

TL;DR enough already


39.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 04:55
39.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 04:55
Apr 14, 2020, 04:55
 

The comprehension and gullibility wars:

When you are too tired or somewhat drunk, or been suddenly awakened by a phone call, you will notice your lack of clarity, struggling to order your ideas.

Huge parts of the population, go their entire lives at various levels of that reduced mentation range.

So, let's not attribute to willfulness or malice, what simple stupidity explains.

Covid-19 kills more where,
1 The population is dense
2 The population is "dense"




38.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 01:43
38.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 01:43
Apr 14, 2020, 01:43
 
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 22:35:
...
Disease . . .Infections . . . Deaths . .Rate
flu . . . 1,000,000,000 . . .500,000 . .0.1%
SARS . . . . . . .8,098 . . . . .774 . 15.0%
H1N1 . . .2,000,000,000 . . .284,000 . .0.2%
Ebola . . . . . .28,652 . . . 11,325 . 50.0%
MERS . . . . . . .2,000 . . . . .866 . 36.0%
CV19 . . .7,000,000,000 . 40,000,000 . .0.8% (No interventions)

...
None of the rate% numbers add up.

Flu = 500k/1b = 0.05%
SARS = 774/8098 = 9.56%
H1N1 = 284k/2b = 0.01%
Ebola = 11325/28652 = 39.5%
MERS = 866/2k = 43.3%
CV19 = 40m/7b = 0.57%
37.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 14, 2020, 00:03
37.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 14, 2020, 00:03
Apr 14, 2020, 00:03
 
Beamer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 23:14:
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 22:36:
Mr. Tact wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 20:48:
Reading is hard...
"The photo shows a young royal Paul Atreides preparing to leave the comfortable life he knows on his native oceanic planet of Caladan for the desolate, dangerous mining planet known as Arrakis – a planet that his wealthy family will oversee extraction of the ‘spice’ which is vital to the galaxy."
I reject reality and substitute my own.
Rather than believe a sourced, cited article written by someone that has accountability, I choose to believe you, some rando on the internet, because what you're saying confirms my existing beliefs and requires neither thinking nor change from me.
Hey, now you're catching on!
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
36.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 23:14
Beamer
 
36.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 23:14
Apr 13, 2020, 23:14
 Beamer
 
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 22:36:
Mr. Tact wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 20:48:
Reading is hard...
"The photo shows a young royal Paul Atreides preparing to leave the comfortable life he knows on his native oceanic planet of Caladan for the desolate, dangerous mining planet known as Arrakis – a planet that his wealthy family will oversee extraction of the ‘spice’ which is vital to the galaxy."
I reject reality and substitute my own.
Rather than believe a sourced, cited article written by someone that has accountability, I choose to believe you, some rando on the internet, because what you're saying confirms my existing beliefs and requires neither thinking nor change from me.
35.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 22:36
35.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 22:36
Apr 13, 2020, 22:36
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 20:48:
Reading is hard...
"The photo shows a young royal Paul Atreides preparing to leave the comfortable life he knows on his native oceanic planet of Caladan for the desolate, dangerous mining planet known as Arrakis – a planet that his wealthy family will oversee extraction of the ‘spice’ which is vital to the galaxy."
I reject reality and substitute my own.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
34.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 22:35
34.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 22:35
Apr 13, 2020, 22:35
 
WaltC wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 11:36:
SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and way back in '85, the infamous Hong-Kong flu, were immeasurably worse--be very, very glad that COVID-19 isn't a patch on those! If you had one of those, you never heard of people "self-quarantining" or recovering in a few days. You were very, very sick from the start if you were infected with one of these, no exceptions--these lethal flu strains all killed young people, too.
COVID-19 is a very different virus than those other ones. SARS and MERS shed virus late so you can quarantine people after they develop symptoms and before it has spread. COVID-19 sheds early, before symptoms show. COVID-19 sheds 1000x more virus than SARS and MERS, which is why it's so virulent. Individually, SARS, MERS, EBOLA are very lethal. COVID-19 is not very lethal for the individual, but is potentially lethal for society due to its virulency and destruction of the healthcare system and economy.

Disease . . .Infections . . . Deaths . .Rate
flu . . . 1,000,000,000 . . .500,000 . .0.1%
SARS . . . . . . .8,098 . . . . .774 . 15.0%
H1N1 . . .2,000,000,000 . . .284,000 . .0.2%
Ebola . . . . . .28,652 . . . 11,325 . 50.0%
MERS . . . . . . .2,000 . . . . .866 . 36.0%
CV19 . . .7,000,000,000 . 40,000,000 . .0.8% (No interventions)
(Source)

Remember, the UK decided to initially follow your advice, and take no special precautions against CV19. They are now of course, but due to their delay, they're expected to have the highest death toll in Europe. Countries which acted early, like Germany, are expected to have the lowest deaths.

(Common Flu strains kill young people every year--COVID-19 almost never does.) Lots of conditions are much worse than COVID-19--viral pneumonia, for instance, can kill a healthy man in his thirties with no underlying medical conditions in a few weeks. Covid-19 won't.
This is completely wrong. 20% of COVID19 deaths in the US are 44 or under.
(There's no quick recovery and "self-quarantining" with viral pneumonia, either--there is also no cure. If you get it you either survive or you don't. I was vaccinated this year for a viral pneumonia strain--hope I don't get exposed to a different strain!)
Viral pneumonia recovery rates in the over 65 cohort are very similar to COVID19 - about 85%. However, there's no vaccine for CV-19, unlike many of the other vectors for viral pneumonia.

No one is making light of COVID-19, but some *perspective* is missing here. The CDC has already reduced its projected US death toll from a high of two million to less than 40,000, last I read about it.
This is because mitigating interventions were implemented. If you remove them and send everyone back to work, restaurants, churches, etc. those numbers go up again.
As the country gets back to work and the irrational panic subsides, I don't doubt that heads will roll in the CDC.
Only because Trump enjoys firing people for disagreeing with him, even when he's wrong. And two to four million potential deaths is not "irrational panic." It's self-preservation.
The worst thing a country can do with an infection like this is panic. Had truckers and grocery stores simply stopped working to "stay at home" the country would already have recorded its first starvation fatalities! People should think about the fact that in this situation the shut down of the economy could easily have been worse than COVID-19 will ever be.
The stay at home orders exempt essential workers. By keeping home everyone else, the risk to these essential workers is reduced. That said, even with reduced risk, it's taking a toll. 41 grocery store workers have died with 100s tested positive. Meat processing plants are closing. Pretty soon we'll all be vegetarian. All of this *with mitigating interventions.* Imagine how much worse it would be if we had done nothing.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
33.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 20:48
33.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 20:48
Apr 13, 2020, 20:48
 
Reading is hard...
"The photo shows a young royal Paul Atreides preparing to leave the comfortable life he knows on his native oceanic planet of Caladan for the desolate, dangerous mining planet known as Arrakis – a planet that his wealthy family will oversee extraction of the ‘spice’ which is vital to the galaxy."
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
32.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 20:44
32.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 20:44
Apr 13, 2020, 20:44
 
First Photo: Timothee Chalamet In "Dune."

He looks like Neo.

Also, what's up with all the water? Maybe that's one of the Hollywood modifications they made: Arrakis isn't a desert planet, but a water world! And the sand worms are actually giant whales whose ambergris is the spice! And the Fremen aren't desert warriors, but Pacific Island warriors like the Maori!
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
31.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 20:37
31.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 20:37
Apr 13, 2020, 20:37
 
Cutter wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 14:13:
CDC estimates for just the US flu for the last six months: 39,000,000-56,000,000 cases. Deaths: 24,000-62,000 - C19? 565,000 Deaths: 23000.
This is an apples to oranges comparison. No special mitigating factors are taken for the flu annually. We're taking extreme measures to combat COVID19, that's why the estimates are lower. I posted this apples to apples comparison the other day.
USA Stats:
2018-2019 Flu infections: 34M
2018-2019 Flu deaths: 35,000

COVID-19 effects in USA with no mitigating interventions taken (Stay at home, social distancing, etc.)
Total COVID-19 infections: 265M
Total COVID-19 deaths: 4M
Source.

Here's a summary.
80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles.
Not only horrific, but just as expensive.
Cutter wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 14:13:
The global economic depression we're staring down is though. Supply chains are starting to break down and not because of the virus itself.
Supply chains are already starting to break down, even with the strict mitigating transmission protocols. It would be 10x worse if we had done nothing, then there would truly be no TP:
Hundreds of workers at a South Dakota plant that supplies up to 5% of all pork in the US caught the coronavirus. Now the facility has become one of a number of meat-processing plants to close, and that's helping to spark fears of meat shortages.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
30.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 20:30
30.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 20:30
Apr 13, 2020, 20:30
 
@Cutter and @WaltC

The economy will tank regardless.

- Take no action, 265M people in the US get infected, 4M die (source). 10s of millions of workers are too sick to go to work. Millions more are permanently damaged, can no longer work, and go on Medicaid. 10s of millions stay home in fear regardless. Trillions spent on medical interventions. Remember how the stock market crashed on Feb 20 because Trump wasn't taking action? In addition to being expensive, this path is also chaotic and destabilizing, threatening social order, way of life, and our governance model.

OR

- Enforce shelter in place and other mitigating factors, spend trillions in aid to individuals and states. Illness and their costs are avoided. Millions of deaths are avoided. Millions of additional disabled workers avoided. Much of the economy continues to function. Exemptions are given to critical workers, keeping critical goods flowing while reducing risk.

Either way, the economy will tank. Better to keep people healthy and ready to restart the economy, than to kill 4M people, maim millions more, and trash the healthcare system. Remember that after WW2 our debt was double what it is today. There's lots of room to borrow and still be able to recover.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
29.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 19:47
29.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 19:47
Apr 13, 2020, 19:47
 
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 19:43:
Orogogus wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 19:35:
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 19:20:
Orogogus wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 13:16:
Well, I don't think the CDC has made public forecasts of total US COVID-19 mortality. In February they made internal projections with four different models, specifically based on the assumption that no action was taken, but this wasn't made public and only reported by the media secondhand. I'm not aware of the CDC making any official statement of projected deaths, but I could have missed it.

Not the CDC, but the Imperial College of London, the gold standard for this kind of this analysis, forecast 265M infections in the US, with 2.2M deaths, if no mitigating factors at all were taken. Once you thrown in a healthcare system that's overwhelmed and can't handle normally survivable conditions. That increases to 4M deaths.

Well, he said CDC, and moreover, he said heads would roll there. But it seems to be the modern playbook:

1. Make up crap that's wrong and easily looked up
2. Affect an outraged, indignant stance over the stuff you made up, maybe make some threats
3. Never admit error, no matter what
Right, I was supplying a public source for those confidential conclusions that the CDC came to, but wasn't able to publish publicly. I wonder why...

They weren't conclusions, they were models, and reports were that they had four different models, all based on no mitigation measures. The highest number from any of them was 1.7M.
28.
 
Re: Schaliegas: USSR Nuclear Gas Well Blowout.
Apr 13, 2020, 19:45
28.
Re: Schaliegas: USSR Nuclear Gas Well Blowout. Apr 13, 2020, 19:45
Apr 13, 2020, 19:45
 
Beamer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 16:12:
Yeah, my parents are really struggling with social distancing, but the truth is they're likely in this until a vaccine comes out. Catching this is likely a death sentence, more or less guaranteed for my 83 year old Dad.

Anyone immunocompromised is likely going to be indoors until 2021. And, while people love pointing out that most of the dead had other conditions, the most common is high blood pressure. Which, y'know, a third of the people on this board probably have, given that our average age is likely over 40.
For people who are used to going outside regularly, they should look into getting vitamin D supplements, since they won't be getting much sun.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
27.
 
Re: Out of the Blue
Apr 13, 2020, 19:43
27.
Re: Out of the Blue Apr 13, 2020, 19:43
Apr 13, 2020, 19:43
 
Orogogus wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 19:35:
jdreyer wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 19:20:
Orogogus wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 13:16:
Well, I don't think the CDC has made public forecasts of total US COVID-19 mortality. In February they made internal projections with four different models, specifically based on the assumption that no action was taken, but this wasn't made public and only reported by the media secondhand. I'm not aware of the CDC making any official statement of projected deaths, but I could have missed it.

Not the CDC, but the Imperial College of London, the gold standard for this kind of this analysis, forecast 265M infections in the US, with 2.2M deaths, if no mitigating factors at all were taken. Once you thrown in a healthcare system that's overwhelmed and can't handle normally survivable conditions. That increases to 4M deaths.

Well, he said CDC, and moreover, he said heads would roll there. But it seems to be the modern playbook:

1. Make up crap that's wrong and easily looked up
2. Affect an outraged, indignant stance over the stuff you made up, maybe make some threats
3. Never admit error, no matter what
Right, I was supplying a public source for those confidential conclusions that the CDC came to, but wasn't able to publish publicly. I wonder why...
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
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26.
 
Re: Schaliegas: USSR Nuclear Gas Well Blowout.
Apr 13, 2020, 19:39
26.
Re: Schaliegas: USSR Nuclear Gas Well Blowout. Apr 13, 2020, 19:39
Apr 13, 2020, 19:39
 
Burrito of Peace wrote on Apr 13, 2020, 15:46:
To put a human face on this:

Like Blue, I know personally people who have died of COVID-19. Three students, two of whom I directly mentored. The third worked for me in a work-study capacity. In addition, two faculty members have passed. One I used to go to lunch with regularly. He was an amazing man who, even in his 80s, was spry and physically active. He also had a razor sharp mind who was more current on developing technology than even myself at times. He served in the Vietnam War, receiving a Purple Heart and Bronze Star. He taught for 45 years and, in that time, had three children, 8 grandchildren, and 2 great-grandchildren (with three more on the way). He was one of the most sought after professors in Computer Science. The flu didn't take him down, COVID-19 did.

All five people caught it in the same building before we truly understood how virulent it is and how far reaching it is. Meanwhile, we have had flu rip through the campus every year. Zero fatalities.

On an extremely personal level, I am deeply concerned. My wife has Sjogren's Syndrome. To combat the ravaging effects of that disease, she has to take medication that places her immune system's response at a near total standstill. COVID-19 will absolutely kill her if she becomes infected with it. Her immunologist and our family doctor reached out to her to tell her to stay quarantined as much as possible. She can handle the flu even though she gets the flu shot every single year like clockwork. She has survived the flu. She will not survive COVID-19.

People whom are far healthier than Mrs. Burrito are dying within days of infection. Days. People who are younger, healthier, and have functioning immune systems.

I also worry about my parents. One has COPD and diabetes and the other has massive heart disease and kidney disease issues. They, too, would be killed by COVID-19.

Therefore, when people like WaltC and Cutter ignorantly and stupidly bleat out "It's just like the flu" or "It's not as bad as the flu", I want to punch them in the dick as hard as I can and continue punching until my arm gives out.

Such stupid, ignorant, scientifically illiterate bullshit is dangerous and does risk the lives of not just individuals but whole communities.

RedEye has posted several links showing how very much it is not like the flu and how much more dangerous than the flu it is. To continue to state otherwise, in the face of scientific fact, is willful, dangerous, and reckless stupidity.
Yup, let me repost this from the other day:

They're both illnesses caused by viruses, but the differences end there.

1) "The flu" is caused by dozens of different viruses.
- - COVID19 is caused by a single virus.

2) We have a vaccine for the flu. The vaccine protects somewhat even if the vaccine virus strain is guessed wrong.
- - There is no vaccine for COVID19.

3) Our healthcare system is designed to handle the load from the annual flu epidemic.
- - It is not designed or stocked to handle the patient influx from the COVID19 pandemic.

4) The flu infects 35M annually in the US with no mitigation factors.
- - COVID19 is projected to infect 265M in the US if no mitigation factors are taken.

5) The flu kills around 40K annually in the US with no mitigation factors.
- - COVID19 is projected to kill 4M in the US if there are no mitigation protocols. (Source)

6) We have immunity to many strains of the flu, various strains having been around for decades.
- - There is no immunity to COVID19. It's brand new..
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
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