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18.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Apr 14, 2020, 09:30
18.
Re: Morning Mobilization Apr 14, 2020, 09:30
Apr 14, 2020, 09:30
 
Another nursing home reporting 25% die-off (42 out of 163 dead). You can prevaricate over under- or over-reporting, but this amount of death should obviously seem abnormal. Again, if 25% of the US population over 80 dies, that will equal the average annual total US deaths from all causes. So I think this requires some explanation from the "it's just like the flu" believers (I thinkWaltC, Retired and Cutter). If it's just like the flu, why don't nursing homes lose a quarter of their patients every year, or even in their bad years?
17.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 24, 2020, 12:05
17.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 24, 2020, 12:05
Mar 24, 2020, 12:05
 
Retired wrote on Mar 24, 2020, 04:15:
Orogogus wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 23:45:
Retired wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 21:00:
Well, it is sample size. In the US the death rate is the same as flu. Worldwide, it is a lot higher. 1.2% vs 4.3% (If I remember the percentages I ran this AM.)

We don't know and will not know for a long time.

What kind of error bars do you imagine swinging from 1.2% to out past 20% for an n of 120? Even if you bump up the flu death rate to account for older subjects and existing conditions, I don't believe the flu randomly strikes the occasional nursing home to wipe out 28% of the patients in a month instead of the usual 3-6%. Either your premise is wrong or something else happened at this site to kill a lot of patients.

? Old ass people in a home who were already sick died. An infected person walked in, hugged and kissed people and people died from a very bad virus.

If I was infected, and walked into my 96 year old grandmother's care facility, and gave everyone some lovin and at lunch with them, touched shit and walked out. Yea, I bet they would all die! That happened before they know what was going on,.

This is exactly my point. Before this year we've never taken any significant precautions at nursing homes and care centers. People visited when they were sick, workers went in sick, they had parties and get-togethers, and the flu's been going around every year. But you haven't read about these sites experiencing a 28% die-off. 33 people dying in a month would be news, and normally I would expect such a facility to be investigated and shut down.

I asked what was different about this site that made it so much worse than normal. It didn't occur to me that people thought this was normal, that every year you see nursing homes lose a quarter of their patients. If that's the case, can you find a news article of an incident like this?

1997 study

Dr. Poland said a British study of 1,059 residents at 12 different centers for long-term care found that the death rate among patients dropped to 10 percent from 17 percent when health-care workers were required to receive annual flu shots.

This implies a 7 percent flu death rate, over a year (probably concentrated in a 3-month flu season) instead of a span of three weeks.
16.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 24, 2020, 04:15
16.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 24, 2020, 04:15
Mar 24, 2020, 04:15
 
Armengar wrote on Mar 24, 2020, 03:22:
Ironically enough, this virus is saving more lives. Road deaths in China are down to historically low values, so whilst the virus is killing the old and lame, it is saving productive members.

This is the stuff I am interested in......it will take years to figure out - but man, there is going to be some amazing studies done!
15.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 24, 2020, 04:15
15.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 24, 2020, 04:15
Mar 24, 2020, 04:15
 
Orogogus wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 23:45:
Retired wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 21:00:
Well, it is sample size. In the US the death rate is the same as flu. Worldwide, it is a lot higher. 1.2% vs 4.3% (If I remember the percentages I ran this AM.)

We don't know and will not know for a long time.

What kind of error bars do you imagine swinging from 1.2% to out past 20% for an n of 120? Even if you bump up the flu death rate to account for older subjects and existing conditions, I don't believe the flu randomly strikes the occasional nursing home to wipe out 28% of the patients in a month instead of the usual 3-6%. Either your premise is wrong or something else happened at this site to kill a lot of patients.

? Old ass people in a home who were already sick died. An infected person walked in, hugged and kissed people and people died from a very bad virus.

If I was infected, and walked into my 96 year old grandmother's care facility, and gave everyone some lovin and at lunch with them, touched shit and walked out. Yea, I bet they would all die! That happened before they know what was going on,.
14.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 24, 2020, 03:22
14.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 24, 2020, 03:22
Mar 24, 2020, 03:22
 
Ironically enough, this virus is saving more lives. Road deaths in China are down to historically low values, so whilst the virus is killing the old and lame, it is saving productive members.
Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
13.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 23:45
13.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 23:45
Mar 23, 2020, 23:45
 
Retired wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 21:00:
Well, it is sample size. In the US the death rate is the same as flu. Worldwide, it is a lot higher. 1.2% vs 4.3% (If I remember the percentages I ran this AM.)

We don't know and will not know for a long time.

What kind of error bars do you imagine swinging from 1.2% to out past 20% for an n of 120? Even if you bump up the flu death rate to account for older subjects and existing conditions, I don't believe the flu randomly strikes the occasional nursing home to wipe out 28% of the patients in a month instead of the usual 3-6%. Either your premise is wrong or something else happened at this site to kill a lot of patients.
12.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 21:05
12.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 21:05
Mar 23, 2020, 21:05
 
Retired wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 21:00:
Orogogus wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 13:21:
Cutter wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 12:07:
Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time.

I think people arguing that this is just like the flu have talked about normal mortality vs deaths attributable specifically to the coronavirus, but I haven't seen any of this address the nursing center in Washington state. Life Care Center of Kirkland had 33 deaths out of 120 residents between 2/19-3/20, up from 3-7 in a typical month. Is there an analysis that explains why it was so high there, aside from age and pre-existing conditions? If a quarter of US 80+ year olds die, that will be a lot higher than than the ~1M that someone else felt to be unrealistic. That kind of mortality will be on par with what the US reports in a year from all deaths. So what, if anything, exacerbated the situation there?

Well, it is sample size. In the US the death rate is the same as flu. Worldwide, it is a lot higher. 1.2% vs 4.3% (If I remember the percentages I ran this AM.)

We don't know and will not know for a long time.

Yes, but again, in the US we don't know the actual death rate. Very few people have recovered from this. So people that want to diminish things keep dividing the amount dead into the amount infected, which is a false number. Many of those currently infected will still die, they just haven't yet. It's a morbid thing to think about, but you can only determine the death rate by comparing those that survived to those that died, and we have too few that have officially survived to do that.

Otherwise, it's like trying to determine what percentage of humans survive life. Currently, about 7% of all humans are alive. That doesn't mean there's a 93% death rate for living. It just means that some cases aren't resolved and shouldn't be used in a calculation.
11.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 21:00
11.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 21:00
Mar 23, 2020, 21:00
 
Orogogus wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 13:21:
Cutter wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 12:07:
Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time.

I think people arguing that this is just like the flu have talked about normal mortality vs deaths attributable specifically to the coronavirus, but I haven't seen any of this address the nursing center in Washington state. Life Care Center of Kirkland had 33 deaths out of 120 residents between 2/19-3/20, up from 3-7 in a typical month. Is there an analysis that explains why it was so high there, aside from age and pre-existing conditions? If a quarter of US 80+ year olds die, that will be a lot higher than than the ~1M that someone else felt to be unrealistic. That kind of mortality will be on par with what the US reports in a year from all deaths. So what, if anything, exacerbated the situation there?

Well, it is sample size. In the US the death rate is the same as flu. Worldwide, it is a lot higher. 1.2% vs 4.3% (If I remember the percentages I ran this AM.)

We don't know and will not know for a long time.
10.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 20:58
10.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 20:58
Mar 23, 2020, 20:58
 
Cutter wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 12:07:
Yeah, no. How the hell would that help? People will either turn their phones off or just leave them at home. And once gov't has the right to do it they'll never give it up.

I don't think this quarantine will work anyway. It'll do too much damage economically. We're probably better going the other way. Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time. Cuomo said yesterday they're projecting this could drag on for 9 months. That's simply untenable.

Some public places have some rules in place, it only so many people in the store, etc.

Most aren't. Go into a Costco or grocery store, hundreds of people.
9.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 18:18
9.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 18:18
Mar 23, 2020, 18:18
 
Beamer wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 13:55:
Orogogus wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 13:21:
Cutter wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 12:07:
Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time.

I think people arguing that this is just like the flu have talked about normal mortality vs deaths attributable specifically to the coronavirus, but I haven't seen any of this address the nursing center in Washington state. Life Care Center of Kirkland had 33 deaths out of 120 residents between 2/19-3/20, up from 3-7 in a typical month. Is there an analysis that explains why it was so high there, aside from age and pre-existing conditions? If a quarter of US 80+ year olds die, that will be a lot higher than than the ~1M that someone else felt to be unrealistic. That kind of mortality will be on par with what the US reports in a year from all deaths. So what, if anything, exacerbated the situation there?

Italy released that somewhere around 99% of their fatalities had existing conditions. In fact, 75% had high blood pressure. Which, sure, 100M Americans have high blood pressure - about 40% over 20, so...

I think the age skew is what turned around the right wing attitude in the US. Tucker Carlson probably realized early on, and other Republicans later, that the 65+ demographic is one of their strongest, highest turnout voter bases. Could the deaths of a few million voters sway US elections? Especially if Fox News encourages its audience to ignore precautions? I'm just surprised so many of them were parroting the "It's only a problem if you're old" line for so long.
8.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 15:50
8.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 15:50
Mar 23, 2020, 15:50
 
{PH}88fingers wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 14:40:
"My phone, which is satellite-tracked by the Taiwan gov to enforce quarantine, ran out of battery at 7:30 AM. By 8:15, four different units called me. By 8:20, the police were knocking at my door."

unquote
It works if you work it.
- At this point, Windows is the OS equivalent of Stockholm Syndrome. -
Burrito of Peace
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7.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 14:40
7.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 14:40
Mar 23, 2020, 14:40
 
"My phone, which is satellite-tracked by the Taiwan gov to enforce quarantine, ran out of battery at 7:30 AM. By 8:15, four different units called me. By 8:20, the police were knocking at my door."

unquote
6.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 13:55
6.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 13:55
Mar 23, 2020, 13:55
 
Orogogus wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 13:21:
Cutter wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 12:07:
Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time.

I think people arguing that this is just like the flu have talked about normal mortality vs deaths attributable specifically to the coronavirus, but I haven't seen any of this address the nursing center in Washington state. Life Care Center of Kirkland had 33 deaths out of 120 residents between 2/19-3/20, up from 3-7 in a typical month. Is there an analysis that explains why it was so high there, aside from age and pre-existing conditions? If a quarter of US 80+ year olds die, that will be a lot higher than than the ~1M that someone else felt to be unrealistic. That kind of mortality will be on par with what the US reports in a year from all deaths. So what, if anything, exacerbated the situation there?

Italy released that somewhere around 99% of their fatalities had existing conditions. In fact, 75% had high blood pressure. Which, sure, 100M Americans have high blood pressure - about 40% over 20, so...
5.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 13:54
5.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 13:54
Mar 23, 2020, 13:54
 
Somehow, everyone has realized this isn't a flu strain, yet Cutter keeps repeating it.

It's like he has no interest in science. He knows what he knows, and new information that contradicts his pre-established notions just gets dismissed. To him, this is a normal flu. To literally any medical professional, this is an extremely unique and dangerous virus.
4.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 13:21
4.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 13:21
Mar 23, 2020, 13:21
 
Cutter wrote on Mar 23, 2020, 12:07:
Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time.

I think people arguing that this is just like the flu have talked about normal mortality vs deaths attributable specifically to the coronavirus, but I haven't seen any of this address the nursing center in Washington state. Life Care Center of Kirkland had 33 deaths out of 120 residents between 2/19-3/20, up from 3-7 in a typical month. Is there an analysis that explains why it was so high there, aside from age and pre-existing conditions? If a quarter of US 80+ year olds die, that will be a lot higher than than the ~1M that someone else felt to be unrealistic. That kind of mortality will be on par with what the US reports in a year from all deaths. So what, if anything, exacerbated the situation there?
3.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 12:07
3.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 12:07
Mar 23, 2020, 12:07
 
Yeah, no. How the hell would that help? People will either turn their phones off or just leave them at home. And once gov't has the right to do it they'll never give it up.

I don't think this quarantine will work anyway. It'll do too much damage economically. We're probably better going the other way. Return to normal and let it peak and pass just like other flu strains and cross your fingers they find a vaccine in the mean time. Cuomo said yesterday they're projecting this could drag on for 9 months. That's simply untenable.
"Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice skate up hill." - Blade
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2.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 11:55
2.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 11:55
Mar 23, 2020, 11:55
 
1984
Get your games from GOG DAMMIT!
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1.
 
Re: Morning Mobilization
Mar 23, 2020, 11:08
1.
Re: Morning Mobilization Mar 23, 2020, 11:08
Mar 23, 2020, 11:08
 
Ahh there we go tracking people's smartphones, things around that virus starts to show up........a bat virus yea sure ok
18 Replies. 1 pages. Viewing page 1.
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