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Out of the Blue

Happy spring to those of us in the Northern Hemisphere, as the vernal equinox is today at 11:50 pm EDT. If this seems soon, it's because it is, as the Farmers' Almanac notes it's the earliest vernal equinox in 124 years. Of course, this is the autumnal equinox in the southern hemisphere, so happy fall to those down under. Finally, happy new year for those who happen to follow the Assyrian, Hindu, and Persian/Iranian calendars.

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Watch Judi Dench's delightful message for managing these stressful times.
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36. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 21, 2020, 15:45  RedEye9 
 
Kxmode wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 18:56:
The Coronavirus Explained & What You Should Do by Kurzgesagt
Thanks
Everyone should watch this and forward to their friends, coworkers, relatives etc.
 
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35. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 21, 2020, 12:08  RedEye9 
 
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:59:
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:38:
Another covid counter
https://ncov2019.live

Pretty cool, but needs a "Number Tested" column.
Desktop version shows a confirmed column.

Politico is not updating enough to be useful.
John Hopkins shows Texas, US
Confirmed: 429
Deaths: 5
Recovered: 0
Active: 424

Politico is still showing yesterdays data of Positive 194
ncov2019 has Texas at 356

***edit***
I think i figured out the discrepancy. The numbers Texas reports "do not include residents of other states who were repatriated from China or a cruise ship on a U.S. government flight to JBSA-Lackland in San Antonio. "
That begs the question, who counts the repatriated -and- boat people?

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news/updates.shtm#coronavirus

This comment was edited on Mar 21, 2020, 12:41.
 
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34. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 22:55  RedEye9 
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:12:
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...
Not looking good for the big apple.
New York now the center of the US coronavirus crisis can it cope?
 
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33. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 21:53  jdreyer 
 
Kxmode wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 21:28:
Orogogus wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 18:23:
Retired wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:18:
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:12:
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...
That seems exponentially higher than what we currently "know" about what is going on. If China is claiming to be on the downturn, and they are at under 4k (which I don't believe and probably closer to 20k), we should expect to have thousands less deaths.

Italy is also at 4k deaths, with a population 23 times smaller than China's (and ~5 times smaller than the US), and it's still on the upswing. There's much made about how Italy has a relatively older population, but it's a difference of 2-6% in any age bracket compared to other countries, not an order of magnitude.

I wonder if that has to do with Italy's culture. They tend to be really family oriented, very social. Love to gather together. Which in many ways mirrors other societies like the United States, which has seen COVID-19 cases go from ~1,000 to ~14,000+ in a week.
Kiss on both cheeks, etc.
 
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32. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 21:28  Kxmode 
 
Orogogus wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 18:23:
Retired wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:18:
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:12:
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...
That seems exponentially higher than what we currently "know" about what is going on. If China is claiming to be on the downturn, and they are at under 4k (which I don't believe and probably closer to 20k), we should expect to have thousands less deaths.

Italy is also at 4k deaths, with a population 23 times smaller than China's (and ~5 times smaller than the US), and it's still on the upswing. There's much made about how Italy has a relatively older population, but it's a difference of 2-6% in any age bracket compared to other countries, not an order of magnitude.

I wonder if that has to do with Italy's culture. They tend to be really family oriented, very social. Love to gather together. Which in many ways mirrors other societies like the United States, which has seen COVID-19 cases go from ~1,000 to ~14,000+ in a week.
 
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William Shakespeare's "Star Wars" Act I, Scene 1: Aboard the rebel ship. / Enter C-3PO and R2-D2. / C-3PO: "Now is the summer of our happiness / Made winter by this sudden, fierce attack!" / R2-D2 Beep beep, Beep, beep, meep, squeak, beep, whee!
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31. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 21:25  Kxmode 
 
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 07:31:
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 23:22:
Kxmode wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 22:38:
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:38:
Another covid counter
https://ncov2019.live

I prefer this one.

When RedEye says "Another one" he means in addition to the Johns Hopkins one.

I like this one, it shows how many tested in each US state.
The first time I linked the John Hopkins map was Feb 3, 2020. The politico version is damn good, just noticed it yesterday.

Whoops. My mistake and apologies, Redeye.
 
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William Shakespeare's "Star Wars" Act I, Scene 1: Aboard the rebel ship. / Enter C-3PO and R2-D2. / C-3PO: "Now is the summer of our happiness / Made winter by this sudden, fierce attack!" / R2-D2 Beep beep, Beep, beep, meep, squeak, beep, whee!
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30. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 18:31  Beamer 
 
Orogogus wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 18:23:
Retired wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:18:
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:12:
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...
That seems exponentially higher than what we currently "know" about what is going on. If China is claiming to be on the downturn, and they are at under 4k (which I don't believe and probably closer to 20k), we should expect to have thousands less deaths.

Italy is also at 4k deaths, with a population 23 times smaller than China's (and ~5 times smaller than the US), and it's still on the upswing. There's much made about how Italy has a relatively older population, but it's a difference of 2-6% in any age bracket compared to other countries, not an order of magnitude.

We're also an old nation.

Of note, it was on the 18th that we passed 100 deaths in the US. As of me typing this, there are 227. We've also surpassed the infected growth rate of Italy. We're on pace to hit 40,000 infected by the 28th. Italy is beyond that now. In fact, they have 40,000 active infections. 48,000 total, with 4,000 recovered and 4,000 dead. Obviously, it's much easier to tell who has died vs fully recovered, but they're at a 50/50 resolution at the moment (this, of course, will drop significantly.)
 



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29. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 18:23 Orogogus
 
Retired wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:18:
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:12:
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...
That seems exponentially higher than what we currently "know" about what is going on. If China is claiming to be on the downturn, and they are at under 4k (which I don't believe and probably closer to 20k), we should expect to have thousands less deaths.

Italy is also at 4k deaths, with a population 23 times smaller than China's (and ~5 times smaller than the US), and it's still on the upswing. There's much made about how Italy has a relatively older population, but it's a difference of 2-6% in any age bracket compared to other countries, not an order of magnitude.
 
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28. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 16:25  Mr. Tact 
 
Some good advice: https://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/quarantine-tips-from-my-cat

 



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27. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 09:21  RedEye9 
 
That man who got his town quarantined obviously never watched Contagion. Wink Prayer and Abstinence works, and no adultery  
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26. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 09:21  Mr. Tact 
 
That is true, however our government doesn't have quite as much control over the population as China does. I hope you are right, Bats.  



"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
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25. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 09:18 Retired
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 09:12:
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...
That seems exponentially higher than what we currently "know" about what is going on. If China is claiming to be on the downturn, and they are at under 4k (which I don't believe and probably closer to 20k), we should expect to have thousands less deaths.
 
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24. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 09:12  Mr. Tact 
 
Was just reading an article in the NYT where one doctor suggested the best-case scenario for the US was 1.1 miliion dead. Which seems a bit grim. Only time will tell if he is an alarmist or is being conservative. My personal guess would be 10s of thousands at a minimum, simply based on the number of deaths of normal flu, and this being by most indications a worse situation. I have no guesses for a worst-case scenario...  



"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
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23. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 08:06  jdreyer 
 
WannaLogAlready wrote on Mar 20, 2020, 07:02:
Meanwhile, in Italy

"In a measure of how the fortunes of East and West have shifted, a Chinese Red Cross official heading an aid delegation to Milan castigated Italians for failing to take their national lockdown seriously.

Sun Shuopeng said he was shocked to see so many people walking around, using public transportation and eating out in hotels."

See any similarities ?

Also, consider that China is an unique case.

Save North Korea, the truly harsh and unrelenting measures enforcing the quarantines in their regime that gave so good results, are unapplicable in the the rest of the world.

And few countries if any have evidenced the massive social focus and prompt early measures of South Korea.

So it follows the rest of the world should fare worse.
The question is how much.

For example USA has repeatedly shown that sizeable parts of the poblation tends to not give a f**k over social consequences.

Our family has been holed up all week. I went out to do some shopping.today, and was shocked to see the park full of people playing pickle ball, basketball, etc. The basketball was especially shocking given how the pros cancelled their season and how these players were all over each other. Even with the dire warnings, Americans think they're invincible.
 
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22. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 07:31  RedEye9 
 
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 23:22:
Kxmode wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 22:38:
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:38:
Another covid counter
https://ncov2019.live

I prefer this one.

When RedEye says "Another one" he means in addition to the Johns Hopkins one.

I like this one, it shows how many tested in each US state.
The first time I linked the John Hopkins map was Feb 3, 2020. The politico version is damn good, just noticed it yesterday.
 
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21. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 20, 2020, 07:02 WannaLogAlready
 

Meanwhile, in Italy

"In a measure of how the fortunes of East and West have shifted, a Chinese Red Cross official heading an aid delegation to Milan castigated Italians for failing to take their national lockdown seriously.

Sun Shuopeng said he was shocked to see so many people walking around, using public transportation and eating out in hotels."

See any similarities ?

Also, consider that China is an unique case.

Save North Korea, the truly harsh and unrelenting measures enforcing the quarantines in their regime that gave so good results, are unapplicable in the the rest of the world.

And few countries if any have evidenced the massive social focus and prompt early measures of South Korea.

So it follows the rest of the world should fare worse.
The question is how much.

For example USA has repeatedly shown that sizeable parts of the poblation tends to not give a f**k over social consequences.

 
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20. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 19, 2020, 23:22  jdreyer 
 
Kxmode wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 22:38:
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:38:
Another covid counter
https://ncov2019.live

I prefer this one.

When RedEye says "Another one" he means in addition to the Johns Hopkins one.

I like this one, it shows how many tested in each US state.
 
Avatar 22024
 



"Blizzard fucked up what should have been the easiest pile of free money ever." - NKD
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19. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 19, 2020, 22:38  Kxmode 
 
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:38:
Another covid counter
https://ncov2019.live

I prefer this one.
 
Avatar 18786
 



William Shakespeare's "Star Wars" Act I, Scene 1: Aboard the rebel ship. / Enter C-3PO and R2-D2. / C-3PO: "Now is the summer of our happiness / Made winter by this sudden, fierce attack!" / R2-D2 Beep beep, Beep, beep, meep, squeak, beep, whee!
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18. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 19, 2020, 22:30  Kxmode 
 
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:05:
Kxmode wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 20:03:
I'm in a city that is is going to be in lock down from midnight 3/20 until midnight 4/7.

Better get any last minute shopping done. That starts in six hours for you.

I'm good on supplies. I have enough to last until April. Toilet paper is okay, I think.

People can still go out for essential needs like groceries, medicine, and medical appointments. Essential services like employees who work at essential jobs, HVAC folks, they can still do their job.

When going out the rules still apply: 1. wash hands, 2. 3-6 ft of distance, 3. don't touch face. and so forth. The elderly are given early morning times between 7-9am to shop. Only they can shop.
 
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William Shakespeare's "Star Wars" Act I, Scene 1: Aboard the rebel ship. / Enter C-3PO and R2-D2. / C-3PO: "Now is the summer of our happiness / Made winter by this sudden, fierce attack!" / R2-D2 Beep beep, Beep, beep, meep, squeak, beep, whee!
Reply Quote Edit Delete Report
 

17. Re: Out of the Blue Mar 19, 2020, 21:59  jdreyer 
 
RedEye9 wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 21:38:
Another covid counter
https://ncov2019.live

Pretty cool, but needs a "Number Tested" column.
 
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"Blizzard fucked up what should have been the easiest pile of free money ever." - NKD
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