Into the Black

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32.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 19:58
32.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 19:58
Mar 19, 2020, 19:58
 
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 19:45:
If you want to know what it might be like, watch The Road. They explain the apocalypse directly (as best they portray it, it's like a nuclear war, but without all the nuclear fallout), but they model what might happen. No food production, no electricity, no government, lots of guns, anarchy, etc. A widespread virulent aerosolized virus with a long incubation period and 60% mortality rate would get us close to that movie, although not quite as bleak.
That's been on my "maybe" list for a while now, I guess I'll bump it up to the "watch" list...
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
31.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 19:45
31.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 19:45
Mar 19, 2020, 19:45
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 17:25:
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 17:18:
As for the flu, there are lots of strains for which we have immunity, but the flu mutates easily. H1N1 is an example for which we don't have immunity. It has a fatality rate of 60%. If it were ever to aerosolize and become highly virulent, we would see a Spanish Flu redux, which could set civilization back decade, possibly even ending civilization as we know it.
This is something I'm interested to find out if someone has done significant research into. If there was a world wide pandemic which killed of X% of the population, what would be the likely results for various values of X. Sixty is pretty high, it seems likely first world living would take a major hit, possibly completely collapse. Find it hard to believe I would be kicking back in my home alone, living of stock market earnings after that.
If you want to know what it might be like, watch The Road. They explain the apocalypse directly (as best they portray it, it's like a nuclear war, but without all the nuclear fallout), but they model what might happen. No food production, no electricity, no government, lots of guns, anarchy, etc. A widespread virulent aerosolized virus with a long incubation period and 60% mortality rate would get us close to that movie, although not quite as bleak.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
30.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 17:25
30.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 17:25
Mar 19, 2020, 17:25
 
jdreyer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 17:18:
As for the flu, there are lots of strains for which we have immunity, but the flu mutates easily. H1N1 is an example for which we don't have immunity. It has a fatality rate of 60%. If it were ever to aerosolize and become highly virulent, we would see a Spanish Flu redux, which could set civilization back decade, possibly even ending civilization as we know it.
This is something I'm interested to find out if someone has done significant research into. If there was a world wide pandemic which killed of X% of the population, what would be the likely results for various values of X. Sixty is pretty high, it seems likely first world living would take a major hit, possibly completely collapse. Find it hard to believe I would be kicking back in my home alone, living of stock market earnings after that.
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
29.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 17:18
29.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 17:18
Mar 19, 2020, 17:18
 
Scottish Martial Arts wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 10:00:
Jonjonz wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 06:45:
it a flu that is only slightly more deadly than every other flu we have seen in this lifetime...

This is not the case.

Coronavirus is a new virus. None of us have immunity to it, and thus it is highly contagious. You and I and everyone else have had the flu in our lifetimes, and so our immune systems are capable of fighting it off. That's why the flu only spreads through part of the population during only the most virus-favorable seasonal conditions: flu has a hard time developing into an infection when the herd all has the antibodies to fight it off. No member of the human herd has such antibodies for corona virus.

Remember how when European colonists arrived in the New World, the native populations were decimated by disease? That's because Europeans brought germs with them, which they themselves were immune to, but which the natives had never experienced before. That is the situation the whole world faces right now.

Likewise, while we don't know the exact mortality rate of coronavirus, the best estimates place it between 10 and 40 times more deadly than the flu, i.e. 1-4% mortality rate.

Suppose that we nonchalantly treat coronavirus as "just the flu". Since no one has immunity, upwards of 70% of the population of the United States develops an infection. That is 229 million people infected with a disease with a 1-4% mortality rate. Consequently, we would be looking at 2.2 - 8.8 million people in the United States dying over the course of the coming months. That is mass death on a scale never seen before in the United States: think mass graves covered in quick lime.

The world economy is shutting down because the alternative is mass death comparable to the Second World War. That isn't the flu. That's a pandemic.

Solid post. I might nit pick a few things though. Coronavirus is novel, and we have no immunity to it until our body adapts to it, but that's not why it's contagious. It's contagious because it resides in the lungs and aerosolizes easily.

As for the flu, there are lots of strains for which we have immunity, but the flu mutates easily. H1N1 is an example for which we don't have immunity. It has a fatality rate of 60%. If it were ever to aerosolize and become highly virulent, we would see a Spanish Flu redux, which could set civilization back decade, possibly even ending civilization as we know it.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
28.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 16:46
28.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 16:46
Mar 19, 2020, 16:46
 
Darks wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 09:56:
Cutter wrote on Mar 18, 2020, 19:37:
Uh yes, we are. First off, when this thing is done people will see it's not even as bad as common A and B strains. Second, it's not the bubonic plague. Third, after every catastrophe or near death experience everyone always says 'Oh this changes everything!' and a few weeks or months later everything's back to normal. People have short memories.

You really want to change things? Isolate China socially and economically and force them to change everything. Otherwise it'll be yet another pandemic from them sooner than later. They're the major problem on this planet today for too many reasons.

On China, I total agree. After this is all said and done, all eyes need to turn back on to China. Its high time the world finally puts them in their place and cuts them off economical and put an end to their reign. Time to cut that cord.
While a lot of the recent communicable diseases have come out of China, not all of them have. MERS originated in the Middle East, probably from camels. Ebola came from Africa. We need to prepare for epidemic/pandemics regardless.

That said, China needs to secure its shit.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
27.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 16:41
27.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 16:41
Mar 19, 2020, 16:41
 
Jonjonz wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 06:45:
Written by a true believer in authoritarian top down surveillance.

Get a grip, this is not "Contagion", it is not Yellow Fever, it is not the black plague, it a flu that is only slightly more deadly than every other flu we have seen in this lifetime, yet the "put the binders on me as fast as you can" subs of the world see this as their Orwellian wet dream.

The most concrete and productive thing to learn from this is "wet markets" need to go, so there are fewer and more spaced out epidemics.
It's not "slightly" more deadly. It's at least 10x more deadly than the flu, in a perfect healthcare environment. It has the potential to become much more deadly by overwhelming care providers, and suddenly a recoverable illness becomes a fatality. Then you're looking at Italy: 4% death rate instead of Korea's 1%.

All that said, I agree with you on "wet markets." China needs to secure that shit. Maybe the $1T hit their economy took will convince them.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
26.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 16:38
26.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 16:38
Mar 19, 2020, 16:38
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 09:33:
bigspender wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 07:10:
We can't let this happen again. No more animal agriculture please. Have veggie burger or impossible burger or whatever until clean lab grown meat is market ready, because this is really bad. Not the disease so much, but the rest of it sucks balls.
Troll, right? It has got to be a troll attempt.

The disease came from improper meat animal handling techniques. If the world became vegetarian, this problem would never have happened. Not sure where the troll is. It's just facts.
“We’ve reached the point of this polarized pandemic where our current plan for salvation is convincing certain recalcitrant men that wearing masks is the testosteroney thing to do.“
Avatar 22024
25.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 12:42
Beamer
 
25.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 12:42
Mar 19, 2020, 12:42
 Beamer
 
Scottish Martial Arts wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 11:21:
Beamer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 11:07:
How are you surviving? Any good takeout/delivery places you're taking advantage of? Tomorrow, King David Tacos is delivering 8 breakfast tacos and a pint of queso, which I'm damn excited about. Though, social distancing has me eating pretty terribly...

I'm holding up but this situation has been a challenge to put it mildly. The quality of life one experiences in NYC drops pretty precipitously when you no longer can enjoy all of its public spaces. I'm particularly missing exploring parts of the city I haven't seen yet (because I would need to get on a train to get to them), my gym, the theater, and the IFC Center. Working at home is similarly challenging, although I do seem to be gradually getting back to a productive state. At least there's Doom and Animal Crossing to look forward to.

I've actually been cooking a lot more in the past year, and it's thankfully been one of the activities I've been able to maintain under social distancing. But I do still order in from time to time. My favorite are probably:

* The Smith
* Mint Masala
* Bleecker Street Pizza
* The LIttle Taco House
* Galanga Thai Cooking

Edit: Also I should give Cowgirl another try. I ordered a chicken-fried steak from them a couple years ago, and was disappointed by its blandness. I do love Texican though and there are surprisingly few options for that in NYC. Same deal with Cajun food: it exists but not as prevalent as, say, Asian Fusion or New American.

We do a lot of Mint Masala and Little Taco House.

Ok, on Cowgirl - it's a West Village institution, and I repeatedly see people claim that you know the old Village is gone when it's gone.

That said, much of the menu is somewhat terrible, and the rest is inconsistent. It's part of the charm. The chicken fried steak was the second thing I had there, and yes, if you close your eyes it tastes like literally nothing. Their sausage gravy is weirdly bland. The enchiladas were the first thing I had, and they're terrible (but better than Agave's, which are gross.) But some things are very good. The hanger steak is solid, the whiskey pork chops are solid, the burger varies between solid and quite good, and the specials are usually pretty good (especially the meatloaf.)
24.
 
Re: removed
Mar 19, 2020, 11:37
24.
Re: removed Mar 19, 2020, 11:37
Mar 19, 2020, 11:37
 
Eirikrautha wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 11:21:
Blue wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 10:56:
This is touchy stuff without name calling and character assassination... disagreeing with you does not make someone a shill.
OK. But he is an Epic "evangelist", and I dare say he'd admit to it. I still think believing the numbers coming out of China is ... unwise...

There are many "camps" in gaming... being more of a fan of Steam/the Epic Games Store, PC/console, PlayStation/Xbox doesn't make you a shill. It just represents your preferences.

And the references to China in this discussion are a little touchy already, with some of walking a fine line of xenophobia and bigotry. I think adults should be entitled to express their opinions on important topics, but let's try and keep it civil.
Stephen "Blue" Heaslip
Blue's News Publisher, Editor-in-Chief, El Presidente for Life
Avatar 2
23.
 
Re: removed
Mar 19, 2020, 11:21
23.
Re: removed Mar 19, 2020, 11:21
Mar 19, 2020, 11:21
 
Blue wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 10:56:
This is touchy stuff without name calling and character assassination... disagreeing with you does not make someone a shill.
OK. But he is an Epic "evangelist", and I dare say he'd admit to it. I still think believing the numbers coming out of China is ... unwise...
22.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 11:21
22.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 11:21
Mar 19, 2020, 11:21
 
Beamer wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 11:07:
How are you surviving? Any good takeout/delivery places you're taking advantage of? Tomorrow, King David Tacos is delivering 8 breakfast tacos and a pint of queso, which I'm damn excited about. Though, social distancing has me eating pretty terribly...

I'm holding up but this situation has been a challenge to put it mildly. The quality of life one experiences in NYC drops pretty precipitously when you no longer can enjoy all of its public spaces. I'm particularly missing exploring parts of the city I haven't seen yet (because I would need to get on a train to get to them), my gym, the theater, and the IFC Center. Working at home is similarly challenging, although I do seem to be gradually getting back to a productive state. At least there's Doom and Animal Crossing to look forward to.

I've actually been cooking a lot more in the past year, and it's thankfully been one of the activities I've been able to maintain under social distancing. But I do still order in from time to time. My favorite are probably:

* The Smith
* Mint Masala
* Bleecker Street Pizza
* The LIttle Taco House
* Galanga Thai Cooking

Edit: Also I should give Cowgirl another try. I ordered a chicken-fried steak from them a couple years ago, and was disappointed by its blandness. I do love Texican though and there are surprisingly few options for that in NYC. Same deal with Cajun food: it exists but not as prevalent as, say, Asian Fusion or New American.

This comment was edited on Mar 19, 2020, 11:35.
21.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 11:07
Beamer
 
21.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 11:07
Mar 19, 2020, 11:07
 Beamer
 
Scottish Martial Arts wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 10:00:
Jonjonz wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 06:45:
it a flu that is only slightly more deadly than every other flu we have seen in this lifetime...

This is not the case.

Coronavirus is a new virus. None of us have immunity to it, and thus it is highly contagious. You and I and everyone else have had the flu in our lifetimes, and so our immune systems are capable of fighting it off. That's why the flu only spreads through part of the population during only the most virus-favorable seasonal conditions: flu has a hard time developing into an infection when the herd all has the antibodies to fight it off. No member of the human herd has such antibodies for corona virus.

Remember how when European colonists arrived in the New World, the native populations were decimated by disease? That's because Europeans brought germs with them, which they themselves were immune to, but which the natives had never experienced before. That is the situation the whole world faces right now.

Likewise, while we don't know the exact mortality rate of coronavirus, the best estimates place it between 10 and 40 times more deadly than the flu, i.e. 1-4% mortality rate.

Suppose that we nonchalantly treat coronavirus as "just the flu". Since no one has immunity, upwards of 70% of the population of the United States develops an infection. That is 229 million people infected with a disease with a 1-4% mortality rate. Consequently, we would be looking at 2.2 - 8.8 million people in the United States dying over the course of the coming months. That is mass death on a scale never seen before in the United States: think mass graves covered in quick lime.

The world economy is shutting down because the alternative is mass death comparable to the Second World War. That isn't the flu. That's a pandemic.

By the way, Baloboosta is doing a pretty solid delivery right now. I did pickup from them last night - good food, and cocktails by the pint.

Actually, that cocktail is in my fridge right now, and in my freezer, a pint of Cowgirl margarita (which is actually not a very good margarita, but man, I love Cowgirl.)

How are you surviving? Any good takeout/delivery places you're taking advantage of? Tomorrow, King David Tacos is delivering 8 breakfast tacos and a pint of queso, which I'm damn excited about. Though, social distancing has me eating pretty terribly...
20.
 
Re: removed
Mar 19, 2020, 10:56
20.
Re: removed Mar 19, 2020, 10:56
Mar 19, 2020, 10:56
 
This is touchy stuff without name calling and character assassination... disagreeing with you does not make someone a shill.
Stephen "Blue" Heaslip
Blue's News Publisher, Editor-in-Chief, El Presidente for Life
Avatar 2
19.
 
removed
Mar 19, 2020, 10:22
19.
removed Mar 19, 2020, 10:22
Mar 19, 2020, 10:22
 
* REMOVED *
This comment was deleted on Mar 19, 2020, 10:54.
18.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 10:21
Cutter
 
18.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 10:21
Mar 19, 2020, 10:21
 Cutter
 
Jonjonz wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 06:45:
Written by a true believer in authoritarian top down surveillance.

Get a grip, this is not "Contagion", it is not Yellow Fever, it is not the black plague, it a flu that is only slightly more deadly than every other flu we have seen in this lifetime, yet the "put the binders on me as fast as you can" subs of the world see this as their Orwellian wet dream.

The most concrete and productive thing to learn from this is "wet markets" need to go, so there are fewer and more spaced out epidemics.

No, it fucking isn't it. Read the science. They started off saying it was 5% more deadly and subsequently it's been dropping since than and is currently below 2% and falling still. When you're extrapolating data from such a small set obviously the numbers will skew upward. You won't really know until it hits peak. Yet all indicators are it's going to end up being far milder than common A and B strains. People need to stop lying and regurgitating this bullshit that it's deadlier when it clearly isn't. Unlike common flu strains most people won't even know they have it.

Hundreds of millions of people get the flu every year and global mortality rates are, on average, estimated to be 300,000 - 650,000 people who die each year to flu related complications. The US alone has 35 million cases this year and an estimated 25-50k dead from a B strain. C19? 230,000 cases and 9,300 dead - that's globally.

500,000,000/650,000
vs
230,000/9300

People need to get some fucking perspective.
"Well, he’s not a villain Summer, but he shouldn’t be your hero. He’s more like a demon, or a super fucked up god." - Morty Smith
Avatar 25394
17.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 10:05
Cutter
 
17.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 10:05
Mar 19, 2020, 10:05
 Cutter
 
I've had a few near death experiences with one in particular that really jolted me. I was all 'This is it, I'm really going to start living and make the most of life now!' That lasted all of a month maybe.

Grocery stores - around here at any rate - are starting to limit things, which is good and they should have done as soon as the US state of emergency was enacted. Supply chains - particularly for essentials - are strong and that won't change but most people don't seem to grasp that. Governments really need to hammer that point home and keep tell people to chill the fuck out. That's a far bigger problem than the virus.
"Well, he’s not a villain Summer, but he shouldn’t be your hero. He’s more like a demon, or a super fucked up god." - Morty Smith
Avatar 25394
16.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 10:00
16.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 10:00
Mar 19, 2020, 10:00
 
Jonjonz wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 06:45:
it a flu that is only slightly more deadly than every other flu we have seen in this lifetime...

This is not the case.

Coronavirus is a new virus. None of us have immunity to it, and thus it is highly contagious. You and I and everyone else have had the flu in our lifetimes, and so our immune systems are capable of fighting it off. That's why the flu only spreads through part of the population during only the most virus-favorable seasonal conditions: flu has a hard time developing into an infection when the herd all has the antibodies to fight it off. No member of the human herd has such antibodies for corona virus.

Remember how when European colonists arrived in the New World, the native populations were decimated by disease? That's because Europeans brought germs with them, which they themselves were immune to, but which the natives had never experienced before. That is the situation the whole world faces right now.

Likewise, while we don't know the exact mortality rate of coronavirus, the best estimates place it between 10 and 40 times more deadly than the flu, i.e. 1-4% mortality rate.

Suppose that we nonchalantly treat coronavirus as "just the flu". Since no one has immunity, upwards of 70% of the population of the United States develops an infection. That is 229 million people infected with a disease with a 1-4% mortality rate. Consequently, we would be looking at 2.2 - 8.8 million people in the United States dying over the course of the coming months. That is mass death on a scale never seen before in the United States: think mass graves covered in quick lime.

The world economy is shutting down because the alternative is mass death comparable to the Second World War. That isn't the flu. That's a pandemic.
15.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 09:56
Darks
 
15.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 09:56
Mar 19, 2020, 09:56
 Darks
 
Cutter wrote on Mar 18, 2020, 19:37:
Uh yes, we are. First off, when this thing is done people will see it's not even as bad as common A and B strains. Second, it's not the bubonic plague. Third, after every catastrophe or near death experience everyone always says 'Oh this changes everything!' and a few weeks or months later everything's back to normal. People have short memories.

You really want to change things? Isolate China socially and economically and force them to change everything. Otherwise it'll be yet another pandemic from them sooner than later. They're the major problem on this planet today for too many reasons.

On China, I total agree. After this is all said and done, all eyes need to turn back on to China. Its high time the world finally puts them in their place and cuts them off economical and put an end to their reign. Time to cut that cord.
Creator of the Neverwnter Nights Eye of the Beholder Series of Mods.

http://www.moddb.com/mods/eye-of-the-beholder-ii-ledgend-of-darkmoon
Avatar 20498
14.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 09:44
14.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 09:44
Mar 19, 2020, 09:44
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 09:33:
Troll, right? It has got to be a troll attempt.
Yes definitely trolling. One dead giveaway is the "it a flu" remark.

Interesting note. New cases in China have practically stopped. While deaths in Italy are nearing Chinese numbers. Anyone know the population of those 2 countries.


edit updated
60.48 million Italy 3,405
1.386 billion China 3,249

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
This comment was edited on Mar 19, 2020, 14:01.
A mask is not a political statement.
It's an IQ test.
It's a compassion test.
It's a decency test.
It's a social responsibility test.
Avatar 58135
13.
 
Re: Into the Black
Mar 19, 2020, 09:33
13.
Re: Into the Black Mar 19, 2020, 09:33
Mar 19, 2020, 09:33
 
bigspender wrote on Mar 19, 2020, 07:10:
We can't let this happen again. No more animal agriculture please. Have veggie burger or impossible burger or whatever until clean lab grown meat is market ready, because this is really bad. Not the disease so much, but the rest of it sucks balls.
Troll, right? It has got to be a troll attempt.
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies." -- Groucho Marx
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