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15. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 8, 2019, 10:07 Mr. Tact
 
Burrito of Peace wrote on Sep 8, 2019, 09:21:
While I do not wholly discount Blurry, and I am not an economist, some of his other predictions have been flatout wrong. As is the case with most economic predictions. So I generally takes what he has to say, along with an amalgamation of other indicators, as an gestalt of probability.
A totally reasonable thought process.

As I have complained before, economics is barely above voodoo as a science. As far as I know there is not a consensus opinion from economists whether the New Deal helped shorten the Depression or if it lengthened it. And pick any economic theory and you can find Nobel Prize winning economists who will argue both sides. They are essentially the equivalent of political windbags.
 
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14. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 8, 2019, 09:21 Burrito of Peace
 
RedEye9 wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 17:35:
But "If you can't afford to lose it, you can't afford to invest it", So you really won't be wiped out. Wink

Absolutely true. My entire finances won't be wiped out, just the fun money that we have chosen to invest. Should have been a bit clearer on that.

Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 17:36:
...then you are fucked...

We're going to get fucked one way or another within the coming decade. If the DNC can't get their shit together and Trumpster fire is re-elected, we're subject to more of his insane, uneducated economic "policies" which will cause a tanking of the global economy. If we somehow end up with a President that isn't Trumpster fire, we're going to see a slew of re-implementations of industry regulations which, in the short term, is going to cause a panic and a general, but slowly reversible, recession. The latter is the the best case scenario.

While I do not wholly discount Blurry, and I am not an economist, some of his other predictions have been flatout wrong. As is the case with most economic predictions. So I generally takes what he has to say, along with an amalgamation of other indicators, as an gestalt of probability.

 
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13. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 17:43 Mr. Tact
 
RedEye9 wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 17:35:
Blurry has a fund, invest with him
I don't know if he claims his investors can avoid this problem. That was my problem with the article actually, he didn't pontificate on what we should do to avoid the issue. Last I knew he was big into investing in water, don't know if that is still the case. I should probably do some research on it... although I suspect doing so would only leave me with more questions.
 
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12. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 17:36 Mr. Tact
 
Yes, we will. Look, I'm not saying he is right. I have no idea. He might be right, he might be wrong, it might be somewhere in between the two. However, he gets a lot credit for being one of the few people to see the mortgage crisis when nearly everyone else thought it was solid and safe. If he is right, we are fucked. And even if you think he was right, pretty much the only way you could protect yourself would be to go fully into Treasury Bonds or similar entities. Which if you do, and he is wrong, then you are fucked.

I've said for decades now that I thought I would live to see a financial fallout which would make the 1930s look like a day in the park. I've been pretty happy to be wrong about it. But if Burry is right, it might be the trigger to get that scenario...
 
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11. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 17:35 RedEye9
 
Burrito of Peace wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 17:25:
Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 16:49:
Burry's premise is even those well trained, honest advisers are getting it wrong.

We'll see if I get wiped out then, no?
But "If you can't afford to lose it, you can't afford to invest it", So you really won't be wiped out. Wink

Blurry has a fund, invest with him
 
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10. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 17:25 Burrito of Peace
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 16:49:
Burry's premise is even those well trained, honest advisers are getting it wrong.

We'll see if I get wiped out then, no?
 
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9. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 16:49 Mr. Tact
 
Burrito of Peace wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 15:32:
Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 11:22:
...if I take my money out, what do I do with it? Buy Treasury bonds with 1.5% - 2.5% interest?

Sit down with a financial adviser who does not have a product to sell outside of their time. Talk with them about your near, mid, and late-term goals. Be honest, realistic in your expectations, and listen to what they have to tell you. A good adviser will look at investment opportunities globally and give you a solid recommendation for your goals. Do your homework and avoid places like Edward Jones (as they often have want to sell you a fund or get kickbacks from steering investors in to those funds).

Next, find a broker who can trade internationally. Work with that broker to enact the plan your financial adviser gave you. When the market tanks, don't panic. It is going to tank and it is going to tank hard. Ride it out. Trying to pull your investments out at .20 on the dollar is stupid.

If you look at massive crash in 2008, you'll notice that in March of 2009, a massive bull market exploded. It was, with the right moves, possible to reap up to a 300% profit in your investments in a not particularly long length of time.

Just be smart. If you can't afford to lose it, you can't afford to invest it.
Actually, I did do that.

Most of my money is in two separate "Target Date" funds, one of which is targeted for 2020, so 55% of that money is already in bonds and other fixed income. But anything in an "equity" is really in a large fund, whether it is targeted over the S&P 500, international, growth stocks, large cap, small cap, whatever -- if Burry is correct the odds are all those funds are susceptible to a bubble burst of the type he is warning about...

If I was still working, I probably wouldn't really care. A crash would simply mean all the money I would continue to pour into my 401k and IRAs would eventually get a huge bonus for those deposits, but since I am retired I won't get that advantage... Burry's premise is even those well trained, honest advisers are getting it wrong.
 
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8. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 15:32 Burrito of Peace
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 11:22:
...if I take my money out, what do I do with it? Buy Treasury bonds with 1.5% - 2.5% interest?

Sit down with a financial adviser who does not have a product to sell outside of their time. Talk with them about your near, mid, and late-term goals. Be honest, realistic in your expectations, and listen to what they have to tell you. A good adviser will look at investment opportunities globally and give you a solid recommendation for your goals. Do your homework and avoid places like Edward Jones (as they often have want to sell you a fund or get kickbacks from steering investors in to those funds).

Next, find a broker who can trade internationally. Work with that broker to enact the plan your financial adviser gave you. When the market tanks, don't panic. It is going to tank and it is going to tank hard. Ride it out. Trying to pull your investments out at .20 on the dollar is stupid.

If you look at massive crash in 2008, you'll notice that in March of 2009, a massive bull market exploded. It was, with the right moves, possible to reap up to a 300% profit in your investments in a not particularly long length of time.

Just be smart. If you can't afford to lose it, you can't afford to invest it.
 
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7. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 11:27 RedEye9
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 7, 2019, 11:22:
I have to say, it was the first thing I've heard/read in a long time which actually caused me some concern about my current investments. The problem is even if I thought the Vanguard S&P 500 fund and all its cousins were a bubble -- if I take my money out, what do I do with it? Buy Treasury bonds with 1.5% - 2.5% interest?
Invest in crypto, surely this time it won't be a get rich quick scam.
 
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6. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 11:22 Mr. Tact
 
I have to say, it was the first thing I've heard/read in a long time which actually caused me some concern about my current investments. The problem is even if I thought the Vanguard S&P 500 fund and all its cousins were a bubble -- if I take my money out, what do I do with it? Buy Treasury bonds with 1.5% - 2.5% interest?  
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5. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 11:11 HorrorScope
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 6, 2019, 22:59:
Not sure that idea applies to cryptocurrency.

I did recently read a finance article which was pretty interesting. The other day Michael Burry (one of the guys who saw the mortgage market crash coming and made billions) was talking about how the investments everyone tells us to invest make, you know S&P 500 funds and such... are a bubble. My initial reaction to this was, "what the hell are you talking about?"

But he put forward the argument that so many trillions of dollars are in these funds now, that they have artificially inflated the value of those stocks across the board. Which makes some sense... and that hedge and fund managers are aware of this and are waiting and watching for the next crash/recession to start and when it does, the first thing they will do is pull their money out of those funds, which will of course haste/worsen the crash/recession... And normal Americans with 401ks and IRAs will watch our collective savings take a turn to the worse which will make 2007/2008 look like a bright sunny day...

Wonderful thoughts, eh?

It's the 100% truth to at least a fair level of what you said. Cousin to a pyramid scheme. The vampires take what they need and then let the rest bleed out and start all over.
 
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4. Early Crypto Sep 7, 2019, 00:38 Jagacademy
 
I invested my life savings into crypto in 2013. Spent 3 1/2 years religiously reading every new piece of information, every forum post, every news article, every argument for/against, etc. I just knew, KNEW, it was going to explode in value. (At one point I owned 5% of all NEM, which became a Top 10 marketcap coin)

In early 2017 I started an anti-depressant called Wellbutrin which over the course of two months made me hypomanic, resulting in terrible decision making. Ended up selling all my crypto for minimal profit in March, literally a week before it started it's exponential rise. The part that is so bizzare, and makes me question whether I am in some kind of Twilight Zone, is that in the back of my mind when I was selling I was telling myself "Just wait and see what the value is on Christmas Day, don't look at it until then." If I had listened to my intuition, I would have logged into $200 million.

Since then I've started drinking, suffer from bouts of suicidal tendancies, and will go into hysterics anytime I think about it.

So not everyone who invested early came out ahead, some of us are still haunted everyday.
 
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3. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 7, 2019, 00:21 Frijoles
 
They make it sound doom and gloom, which for a lot of people I'm sure it was. But the examples they give aren't very good. Take this one: $325,239 for 191.118 bitcoins. That puts the price at $1701 per coin. Bitcoin is trading at $10,329 today. That puts him at $17,577,588. Reckless? Sure. But that's a hell of a return. Or the other one, taking out $250k loan for Bitcoin at "dropped below $10,000". He's still in the positive. Not much, but better than nothing considering it dropped so far.

I spent a fair amount on coins during the craze. I took a loss on them, but it was fun watching it go up. And the amount I spent wasn't crazy. It's going to moon any day now. I can feel it.
 
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2. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 6, 2019, 22:59 Mr. Tact
 
Not sure that idea applies to cryptocurrency.

I did recently read a finance article which was pretty interesting. The other day Michael Burry (one of the guys who saw the mortgage market crash coming and made billions) was talking about how the investments everyone tells us to invest make, you know S&P 500 funds and such... are a bubble. My initial reaction to this was, "what the hell are you talking about?"

But he put forward the argument that so many trillions of dollars are in these funds now, that they have artificially inflated the value of those stocks across the board. Which makes some sense... and that hedge and fund managers are aware of this and are waiting and watching for the next crash/recession to start and when it does, the first thing they will do is pull their money out of those funds, which will of course haste/worsen the crash/recession... And normal Americans with 401ks and IRAs will watch our collective savings take a turn to the worse which will make 2007/2008 look like a bright sunny day...

Wonderful thoughts, eh?
 
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1. Re: Evening Metaverse Sep 6, 2019, 22:01 RedEye9
 
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"  
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