Beamer wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 09:02:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 03:54:
"SUPERDATA. A NIELSEN COMPANY." If you don't know who they are well, you're in for a rude awakening.

Also, Nielsen is not infallible. I've worked with them extensively. Last in 2017, so I'm sure they've built up capabilities, but their estimates were generally 30% off from my actuality. It still made them useful, as I was using them for market sizing and competitive monitoring, and they were a data point for me, not gospel, but it always amazed me how much they were charging me for access to their data, then gave me estimates about my business that were so far off, making me realize how far off they must be for everyone else.

Well, since you worked with them and know their inner workings, I'll give that to you.

However, do realize that according to other industry analytical firms, Steam has a profitable trajectory. Statista has a report showing that in 2017, Valve made 4.3 billion. Forbes reports in 2018, Epic reportedly earned $3 billion. So even if you factor in some loss on Steam's side to EGS exclusives, numbers-wise Steam still made likely around a billion more than Epic. Steam has more concurrent and active monthly users than EGS. And, by far, Steam has more registered users than all the modern consoles combined include the Epic Games Store.

What I am saying is Epic is not going to meet or defeat Steam on numbers alone. Mathematically they can't. The ONLY way they will is if they go full-bore on hiring talent to the degree that allows them to get their store up to Steam's level within a year or two, and then push to make the store better than Steam. Epic has the funds so they can spare no expense. However, if they're focusing on exclusives, their store will ultimately fail.

Anyhow, that's my take of the situation. Thank you for your point of view.

Beamer wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 09:00:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:56:
...

1) They ARE pushing their store up to par. But until it is up to par, they're trying to ensure it has a user base

Because their store is not up to par, they shouldn't be engaging in anti-consumer tactics to be sustainable. In other words, they cannot succeed on merit alone. That's some underhanded BS. Anyone who supports Epic's anti-consumer exclusives is as shady as they are.

Beamer wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 09:00:
2) You can't waive a magic wand and make something up to par. Part of what is required is resources. Resources are hard. Getting good people isn't easy, despite what all the people not in hiring positions here keep saying. You want smart people, that fit your culture, know what they're doing, and hit the ground running. This isn't easy. And yes, Epic has quite a few, but they can't pull their best people off of Fortnite without accelerating the decline of Fortnite

I know their magic wand-waving requires resources. The thing is they have all the resources they need. In 2018, they made $3 BILLION in profit, and in 2017, they made over a billion, at least. Epic isn't strapped for cash. But their focus on purely on obtaining exclusives because their platform cannot compete against Valve's superior product today.

Beamer wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 09:00:
3) It also takes time. There's a finite limit. A coding problem doesn't necessarily move faster with 1000 coders than 100. It almost definitely doesn't move faster with 10,000 than 1,000, and especially 100,000 than 10,000. At some point, people need other people to finish things, and some pieces aren't modular enough to be built by multiple people. Some modules can't be started until others are finished

CD Projekt Red developed The Witcher 3 in about three years. Part of the reason they were able to do it was during the peak of production they had around 1,000 people working on the game. ONE THOUSAND PEOPLE all over the world so that the game could be in continuous development. CDPR has a minuscule fraction of Epic's profits, and yet they went full-bore on the talent required to get the product done. How many people do you suppose Epic has hired to work on their store? I guarantee it's not as much as CDPR's commitment to The Witcher 3.

Beamer wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 09:00:
What they're doing is a stop-gap. If they waited until the store was fully finished, they'd never get it out. If they didn't have exclusives, they wouldn't have customers.

If they were serious about bringing their store up to par, they would hire a deluge of talent. Instead, they burn through their funds on exclusives because exclusives are easier and sexier than updating the store.

Beamer wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 09:00:
I literally don't understand what you want them to do. What's your solution? One that makes sense in a business world.

See my last two points above. If CDPR could do that for The Witcher 3 with a fraction of the money, then there's no limits or restrictions for Epic. The only question to ask is what interests Epic more? A better storefront or anti-consumer exclusives. As I see it, they lean the later.

Kxmode wrote on Jun 25, 2019, 03:54:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 18:31:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:31:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
The only actual Epic Game Store exclusive is Fortnite on PC.

"Fortnite gets a boost from Season 9 but is still far off from its peak. Fortnite made $203 million across console, PC and mobile, up significantly from April but down 38% from May 2018. Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue."

So that fad is coming to an inevitable end and with it Epic's ability to lock down exclusives. They should be focusing all the Fortnite cash on making their platform as good as if not better than Steam.

Almost 2 years of been the most profitable/popular game on the planet? That's some 'fad' :P

Perhaps you missed the part where it read "but down 38% from May 2018." A 38% drop isn't trivial. If Epic were a publicly traded company, a 38% drop from a previous year would cause investors to sell off shares, especially considering Fortnite is Epic's golden cash cow and primary source of profitable income.

I didn't, because even if it had a 100% drop tomorrow it wouldn't change the facts or the past eg:

"Fortnite earned record $2.4bn in 2018, the 'most annual revenue of any game in history."

But i guess you missed the part where the game is still topping the highest grossing game lists, and that they are still making over 200 million dollars a month from ONE GAME. One game that has broken pretty much all records and made the company a fkn mint - enough to single handedly fund all their other projects including their store.

Most AAA games are popular for a month or two at best... Fortnite has been killing it for 2 years straight now.

Any AAA dev would kill to have this 'fad' as you call it.

"SUPERDATA. A NIELSEN COMPANY." If you don't know who they are well, you're in for a rude awakening.

Also, Nielsen is not infallible. I've worked with them extensively. Last in 2017, so I'm sure they've built up capabilities, but their estimates were generally 30% off from my actuality. It still made them useful, as I was using them for market sizing and competitive monitoring, and they were a data point for me, not gospel, but it always amazed me how much they were charging me for access to their data, then gave me estimates about my business that were so far off, making me realize how far off they must be for everyone else.

Kxmode wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:56:

StingingVelvet wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:43:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:31:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
...

...

...

They are absolutely in a race to get the Epic Store turned into a real competitor before their money bag runs out. Their client improvements seem to be coming too slow for how fast Fortnite might be fading, but they've got a ways to go yet.

I have a feeling Borderlands 3 will make or break their chances. Not only how well it sells compared to 2, but also how much more casual players hate the client they're forced to use (if they hate it).

The problem with their race is they're astroturfing loyalty by forcing people to buy from them instead of wanting to buy. This is all on Epic for blowing their money on exclusives instead of pushing hard to bring their store up to par with other platforms and then make it better than them. I want Steam to have good competition (still do) because it would force Valve to get off their laurels and do something. Competition is good. It drives innovation and so much more. But I don't like the kind of anti-consumer choice nonsense Epic is engaging in. All they do is incite contempt.

Time is not on Epic's side. In the end, they will lose and I won't shed a tear when their store implodes.

Something else worth noting. The footnote included this: "Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue." In other words, the money isn't coming from PC but consoles. Consoles go through generations. What happens when current gen consoles get replaced by new ones? Is Fortnite still going to be as popular? Will gamers be turned off because the graphics look "old gen?"

You're a dev, you should know better than this.

1) They ARE pushing their store up to par. But until it is up to par, they're trying to ensure it has a user base

2) You can't waive a magic wand and make something up to par. Part of what is required is resources. Resources are hard. Getting good people isn't easy, despite what all the people not in hiring positions here keep saying. You want smart people, that fit your culture, know what they're doing, and hit the ground running. This isn't easy. And yes, Epic has quite a few, but they can't pull their best people off of Fortnite without accelerating the decline of Fortnite

3) It also takes time. There's a finite limit. A coding problem doesn't necessarily move faster with 1000 coders than 100. It almost definitely doesn't move faster with 10,000 than 1,000, and especially 100,000 than 10,000. At some point, people need other people to finish things, and some pieces aren't modular enough to be built by multiple people. Some modules can't be started until others are finished


What they're doing is a stop-gap. If they waited until the store was fully finished, they'd never get it out. If they didn't have exclusives, they wouldn't have customers.

I literally don't understand what you want them to do. What's your solution? One that makes sense in a business world.

Osc8r wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 18:31:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:31:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
The only actual Epic Game Store exclusive is Fortnite on PC.

"Fortnite gets a boost from Season 9 but is still far off from its peak. Fortnite made $203 million across console, PC and mobile, up significantly from April but down 38% from May 2018. Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue."

So that fad is coming to an inevitable end and with it Epic's ability to lock down exclusives. They should be focusing all the Fortnite cash on making their platform as good as if not better than Steam.

Almost 2 years of been the most profitable/popular game on the planet? That's some 'fad' :P

Perhaps you missed the part where it read "but down 38% from May 2018." A 38% drop isn't trivial. If Epic were a publicly traded company, a 38% drop from a previous year would cause investors to sell off shares, especially considering Fortnite is Epic's golden cash cow and primary source of profitable income.

I didn't, because even if it had a 100% drop tomorrow it wouldn't change the facts or the past eg:

"Fortnite earned record $2.4bn in 2018, the 'most annual revenue of any game in history."

But i guess you missed the part where the game is still topping the highest grossing game lists, and that they are still making over 200 million dollars a month from ONE GAME. One game that has broken pretty much all records and made the company a fkn mint - enough to single handedly fund all their other projects including their store.

Most AAA games are popular for a month or two at best... Fortnite has been killing it for 2 years straight now.

Any AAA dev would kill to have this 'fad' as you call it.

"SUPERDATA. A NIELSEN COMPANY." If you don't know who they are well, you're in for a rude awakening.

[duplicate entry]

Jerykk wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 05:17:

StingingVelvet wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:43:
I have a feeling Borderlands 3 will make or break their chances. Not only how well it sells compared to 2, but also how much more casual players hate the client they're forced to use (if they hate it).

I don't think Borderlands 3 will really prove anything. It's a highly-anticipated sequel in a popular franchise. It's going to sell well regardless of where it's sold.

The real question is whether or not games that aren't exclusive to EGS can still sell well on EGS. If the answer is no, then EGS will not be sustainable.

You know the mathematical answer to that question. However, here are the raw numbers to provide proof.

"Epic Games said during a GDC presentation today that there are now 85 million registered users of the Epic Games Store on PC" Source

Companies tout "registered" users all the time as if they're supposed to mean something. Registered users are meaningless. Steam has one billion accounts. Who cares how many registered accounts a platform has? What matters is active monthly users.

"Steam now has 90 million monthly users" Source

In other words, Steam has more monthly active users than EGS has registered users (although, in full disclosure, given the dates of the articles, it could be less now).

The bottom line is if the same game appeared on Steam and EGS, there's no way Epic could ever compete based on sheer numbers. That's why Epic went exclusive because they can't compete with Steam as a platform. It's not unlike a kid picking a fight and then running behind their dad for protection. In this case, Epic picked a fight with Steam with all their bombastic talk and then hid behind their exclusives. Valve called out Epic on their nonsense via a post on the Steam Metro Exodus store page:

"We think the decision to remove the game is unfair to Steam customers, especially after a long pre-sale period. We apologize to Steam customers that were expecting it to be available for sale through the February 15th release date, but we were only recently informed of the decision and given limited time to let everyone know."

EGS was seen by most, myself included, as a legit competition for Steam that would create a flat landscape where one platform pushes the other to innovate and visa verse. But once Epic went exclusive, the hatred toward them reached a boiling point. I've read people's comments where they've made it clear they won't support Epic, and if they had a choice to buy on a publisher's platform (like UPlay for Division 2), they will buy there. People aren't factoring in all the negativity towards EGS as a cause for their downfall.

You have three main factors:
- Epic is burning through its Fortnite profits to astroturf brand loyalty. Astroturfing isn't organic, and people only stick with EGS for as long as the freebies exist, or because they're forced to buy a game from EGS.
- A considerable drop in revenue from 2018 coming from consoles (Fortnite's number one money maker), which is likely to drop once nextgen consoles arrive or before if the popularity wanes.
- A high degree of negativity surrounding exclusives.

All these conditions exist now, and they will lead to a negative sum game.

This comment was edited on Jun 25, 2019, 03:52.

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:31:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
The only actual Epic Game Store exclusive is Fortnite on PC.

"Fortnite gets a boost from Season 9 but is still far off from its peak. Fortnite made $203 million across console, PC and mobile, up significantly from April but down 38% from May 2018. Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue."

So that fad is coming to an inevitable end and with it Epic's ability to lock down exclusives. They should be focusing all the Fortnite cash on making their platform as good as if not better than Steam.

Almost 2 years of been the most profitable/popular game on the planet? That's some 'fad' :P

Perhaps you missed the part where it read "but down 38% from May 2018." A 38% drop isn't trivial. If Epic were a publicly traded company, a 38% drop from a previous year would cause investors to sell off shares, especially considering Fortnite is Epic's golden cash cow and primary source of profitable income.

I didn't, because even if it had a 100% drop tomorrow it wouldn't change the facts or the past eg:

"Fortnite earned record $2.4bn in 2018, the 'most annual revenue of any game in history."

But i guess you missed the part where the game is still topping the highest grossing game lists, and that they are still making over 200 million dollars a month from ONE GAME. One game that has broken pretty much all records and made the company a fkn mint - enough to single handedly fund all their other projects including their store.

Most AAA games are popular for a month or two at best... Fortnite has been killing it for 2 years straight now.

Any AAA dev would kill to have this 'fad' as you call it.

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 21:02:

Verno wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:52:
Total War Three Kingdoms totally deserves it, fucking GREAT game. Creative Assembly nailed it, great campaign mode and the battles are still fun as hell. Haven't had this much fun with a CA title since Rome 2.

How's the story? Is it engrossing? I'm not much for the Total War side of the game, but if the story is awesome I'll play.

It is one of the most amusing periods of Chinese history, filled with drama and backstabbing. You should really go watch Red Cliff (2009) or read up on it first though. It's a huge mix of the fantastical and the historical. There are still statues of Guan Yu all over modern China today. The campaign mode lets you pick a warlord and essentially try to unite China.

StingingVelvet wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:43:
I have a feeling Borderlands 3 will make or break their chances. Not only how well it sells compared to 2, but also how much more casual players hate the client they're forced to use (if they hate it).

I don't think Borderlands 3 will really prove anything. It's a highly-anticipated sequel in a popular franchise. It's going to sell well regardless of where it's sold.

The real question is whether or not games that aren't exclusive to EGS can still sell well on EGS. If the answer is no, then EGS will not be sustainable.

StingingVelvet wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:43:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:31:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
...

...

...

They are absolutely in a race to get the Epic Store turned into a real competitor before their money bag runs out. Their client improvements seem to be coming too slow for how fast Fortnite might be fading, but they've got a ways to go yet.

I have a feeling Borderlands 3 will make or break their chances. Not only how well it sells compared to 2, but also how much more casual players hate the client they're forced to use (if they hate it).

The problem with their race is they're astroturfing loyalty by forcing people to buy from them instead of wanting to buy. This is all on Epic for blowing their money on exclusives instead of pushing hard to bring their store up to par with other platforms and then make it better than them. I want Steam to have good competition (still do) because it would force Valve to get off their laurels and do something. Competition is good. It drives innovation and so much more. But I don't like the kind of anti-consumer choice nonsense Epic is engaging in. All they do is incite contempt.

Time is not on Epic's side. In the end, they will lose and I won't shed a tear when their store implodes.

Something else worth noting. The footnote included this: "Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue." In other words, the money isn't coming from PC but consoles. Consoles go through generations. What happens when current gen consoles get replaced by new ones? Is Fortnite still going to be as popular? Will gamers be turned off because the graphics look "old gen?"

This comment was edited on Jun 23, 2019, 02:14.

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:31:

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
The only actual Epic Game Store exclusive is Fortnite on PC.

"Fortnite gets a boost from Season 9 but is still far off from its peak. Fortnite made $203 million across console, PC and mobile, up significantly from April but down 38% from May 2018. Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue."

So that fad is coming to an inevitable end and with it Epic's ability to lock down exclusives. They should be focusing all the Fortnite cash on making their platform as good as if not better than Steam.

Almost 2 years of been the most profitable/popular game on the planet? That's some 'fad' :P

Perhaps you missed the part where it read "but down 38% from May 2018." A 38% drop isn't trivial. If Epic were a publicly traded company, a 38% drop from a previous year would cause investors to sell off shares, especially considering Fortnite is Epic's golden cash cow and primary source of profitable income.

They are absolutely in a race to get the Epic Store turned into a real competitor before their money bag runs out. Their client improvements seem to be coming too slow for how fast Fortnite might be fading, but they've got a ways to go yet.

I have a feeling Borderlands 3 will make or break their chances. Not only how well it sells compared to 2, but also how much more casual players hate the client they're forced to use (if they hate it).

Verno wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 20:52:
Total War Three Kingdoms totally deserves it, fucking GREAT game. Creative Assembly nailed it, great campaign mode and the battles are still fun as hell. Haven't had this much fun with a CA title since Rome 2.

How's the story? Is it engrossing? I'm not much for the Total War side of the game, but if the story is awesome I'll play.

Total War Three Kingdoms totally deserves it, fucking GREAT game. Creative Assembly nailed it, great campaign mode and the battles are still fun as hell. Haven't had this much fun with a CA title since Rome 2.

Osc8r wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 17:32:

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
The only actual Epic Game Store exclusive is Fortnite on PC.

"Fortnite gets a boost from Season 9 but is still far off from its peak. Fortnite made $203 million across console, PC and mobile, up significantly from April but down 38% from May 2018. Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue."

So that fad is coming to an inevitable end and with it Epic's ability to lock down exclusives. They should be focusing all the Fortnite cash on making their platform as good as if not better than Steam.

Almost 2 years of been the most profitable/popular game on the planet? That's some 'fad' :P

Perhaps you missed the part where it read "but down 38% from May 2018." A 38% drop isn't trivial. If Epic were a publicly traded company, a 38% drop from a previous year would cause investors to sell off shares, especially considering Fortnite is Epic's golden cash cow and primary source of profitable income.

Why list no have Mac sales, this is shit.

I never heard of crossfire, so I just watch a video. Is that a game made in 1999? It looks janky as hell.

Then I checked out Dungeon Fighter Online, looks like a Genesis game?

Whatever greases you bootyhole, I guess

Some sad, sad shit on that list. Scratch that. The whole list is sad. And shit.

They must be making a lot of money on microtransactions with NBA 2K19. It was only $3 (95% off) for all consoles during E3, so they're just trying to get more people in the door. Maybe they'll just go full F2P with it soon.

Kxmode wrote on Jun 22, 2019, 15:21:
The only actual Epic Game Store exclusive is Fortnite on PC.

"Fortnite gets a boost from Season 9 but is still far off from its peak. Fortnite made $203 million across console, PC and mobile, up significantly from April but down 38% from May 2018. Console continues to contribute the largest share of players and revenue."

So that fad is coming to an inevitable end and with it Epic's ability to lock down exclusives. They should be focusing all the Fortnite cash on making their platform as good as if not better than Steam.

Almost 2 years of been the most profitable/popular game on the planet? That's some 'fad'

Looks like the MOBA 'fad' is still doing pretty well too...

WTB the next fad.