Jerykk wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 05:17:
StingingVelvet wrote on Jun 23, 2019, 01:43:
I have a feeling Borderlands 3 will make or break their chances. Not only how well it sells compared to 2, but also how much more casual players hate the client they're forced to use (if they hate it).
I don't think Borderlands 3 will really prove anything. It's a highly-anticipated sequel in a popular franchise. It's going to sell well regardless of where it's sold.
The real question is whether or not games that aren't exclusive to EGS can still sell well on EGS. If the answer is no, then EGS will not be sustainable.
You know the mathematical answer to that question. However, here are the raw numbers to provide proof.
"Epic Games said during a GDC presentation today that there are now 85 million registered users of the Epic Games Store on PC" Source
Companies tout "registered" users all the time as if they're supposed to mean something. Registered users are meaningless. Steam has one billion accounts
. Who cares how many registered accounts a platform has? What matters is active monthly users.
"Steam now has 90 million monthly users" Source
In other words, Steam has more monthly active users than EGS has registered users (although, in full disclosure, given the dates of the articles, it could be less now).
The bottom line is if the same game appeared on Steam and EGS, there's no way Epic could ever compete based on sheer numbers. That's why Epic went exclusive because they can't compete with Steam as a platform. It's not unlike a kid picking a fight and then running behind their dad for protection. In this case, Epic picked a fight with Steam with all their bombastic talk and then hid behind their exclusives. Valve called out Epic on their nonsense via a post on the Steam Metro Exodus
"We think the decision to remove the game is unfair to Steam customers, especially after a long pre-sale period. We apologize to Steam customers that were expecting it to be available for sale through the February 15th release date, but we were only recently informed of the decision and given limited time to let everyone know."
EGS was seen by most, myself included, as a legit competition for Steam that would create a flat landscape where one platform pushes the other to innovate and visa verse. But once Epic went exclusive, the hatred toward them reached a boiling point. I've read people's comments where they've made it clear they won't support Epic, and if they had a choice to buy on a publisher's platform (like UPlay for Division 2), they will buy there. People aren't factoring in all the negativity towards EGS as a cause for their downfall.
You have three main factors:
- Epic is burning through its Fortnite profits to astroturf brand loyalty. Astroturfing isn't organic, and people only stick with EGS for as long as the freebies exist, or because they're forced to buy a game from EGS.
- A considerable drop in revenue from 2018 coming from consoles (Fortnite's number one money maker), which is likely to drop once nextgen consoles arrive or before if the popularity wanes.
- A high degree of negativity surrounding exclusives.
All these conditions exist now, and they will lead to a negative sum game.This comment was edited on Jun 25, 2019, 03:52.
"Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times." - Those Who Remain by G. Michael Hopf