replying to CJ:
We're talking about different things.
Saying stuff like: "Implementing ray-tracing should be relatively little work for the actual devs" is completely missing my point. You're taking about the thin coat of varnish, I'm talking about real ray-traced games.
Look at the comparison screenshots for Metro: Exodus with "RTX on ultra" vs. "RTX off". They're virtually identical. Even in direct A-to-B tests most people wouldn't be able to tell which is which.
Now why is that?
Because the lead platform for the game are consoles, with non-RTX (normal) PCs trailing a bit behind. The game is designed from the ground up to look great on non-RTX platforms. That's why even Metro (arguably most advanced use of RTX we've seen to date) looks utterly unimpressive with RTX cranked up to max compared to how the base game already looks.
Only if the developers built the game from day 1 with RTX in mind, and frankly ONLY RTX in mind, will we see anything half-impressive from this tech. And they simply aren't going to do that. They won't sink 50M into development and another 50M into marketing for a product that targets a pool of 200,000 potential buyers, they will target the 100,000,000 PC and console users that aren't using RTX. Like I said, it would be irresponsible for them to do otherwise.
This has nothing to do with the PC being a decently big platform or not... 99% of PC gamers don't have RTX-capable hardware, and the PC platform is 3rd in importance when it comes to sales after Playstation and Xbox for AAA games. The games you'll find on uPlay aren't designed with the PC as the lead platform, they're all built primarily for consoles with very few exceptions, and when PC is the lead platform ie. Anno, RTX will be an afterthought to the less than 1% of users, just like it is in BFV and Metro.
The games will need to be BUILT for RTX for them to come anywhere close to this dream of a raytraced future that we've all been sold on. Think of an nvidia RTX demo, it was built for RTX it looks COMPLETELY different. THIS is what I'm talking about. And we aren't going to see AAA games that look like THAT for a decade.
The 2021 console generation will have DX12, but it won't have dedicated raytracing hardware, it will use GPGPU cores to accomplish some raytracing in a very limited fashion, probably to check the marketing tickboxes, but there's no way in hell they will be able to do anything close to what you're expecting. The 2021 generation will see art assets, and LOD shift to 4k as the new target resolution, and that will take every bit of processing power a mid-level AMD APU can muster.
The real revolution will be IMO the next next generation of consoles circa 2029 or so, where there is enough processing power to spare for raytracing on consoles.
If consoles can't do it, don't expect any miracles from the PC ports we all enjoy. It'll be nothing more than a thin coat of varnish.
For your transgressions you shall be labeled a shill, called an idiot and anytime you mention facts or disagree with a tribe member you will henceforth be known as a troll. The best you can hope for is that the labels won't haunt your offspring. -RedEye9