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Out of the Blue

Happy New Year! We had a nice quiet time here, so nobody is suffering with any party regrets. Hopefully you're doing okay as well, or at least that your pet hangover cure does the trick. There were a lot of downs in the ups and downs of last year, so here's to a 2018 that has more ups than Michael Jordan!

New Year Links: Thanks Ant.
Play: Super Fighters.
Stories: New Year's Eve Hangover? Eat These Foods to Feel Better. With music to make hangovers worse.
Eight ways to avoid - or treat - a New Year's hangover.
"Last Jedi" At $1B Worldwide Box-Office.
Science: Why aliens are not contacting us if they know about humans? Explains astonishing 'Zoo Theory'.
FDA approves first shock wave device made to heal wounds. They already make the Lúcio joke.
Chocolate is on track to go extinct in 40 years.
Media: Not your grandparents' origami -- paper toys that DO.
Behold Chainsaw Proof Pants in Action.
Never kick the bull. What's that old saying about messing with the bull?
Follow-up: F-35 may see combat in 2018. TIE Fighter attack incoming?
New Year's Day Full Moon: Are 'Supermoons' Really That Super?
The Funnies: xkcd: Desert Golfing.

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32 Replies. 2 pages. Viewing page 1.
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32. Re: Morning Mobilization Jan 5, 2018, 00:23 jdreyer
 
Scottish Martial Arts wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 06:48:
jdreyer wrote on Jan 1, 2018, 15:03:
Which reminds me, I gotta find a good F-35 mod for ArmA 3.

I wonder if any of them simulate the augmented-reality helmet being too big for the cockpit.

My thought is, probably not. That kind of design and coding would require a pretty dedicated mod team a long time. On the other hand, ArmA 3 does have some of the most dedicated modders.
 
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31. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 3, 2018, 14:52 jdreyer
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Jan 3, 2018, 05:44:
It's not about sharing values though it'd be nice if they did, it's about the fact that no species behaves 100% monolithic so non-interference would never be the 100% agreed upon opinion.

This is an assumption not in evidence. We have no idea what rules an advanced alien culture might have and how they might enforce them.

And ants are also very different among their species lines, but ants don't build space-ships Neither does any other living thing on this planet aside from us.

Ants build cooperative civilizations, just like we do. Aliens could have an intelligence so far beyond ours that we are like ants to them. Ditto for their technology.

Basically, you can't beat the Fermi Paradox, the most likely scenario (currently) is that we are indeed the only intelligent sentient life-form that is space-faring in our galaxy and any alien life we may ever come across is probably the kind we uplift from slightly lesser species or create ourselves through various factors.

Sure, until proven otherwise, we're the only intelligent species in the universe. The problem with the Fermi paradox is that we're so technologically nascent that the ability to detect aliens is most likely beyond us. Another example is our solar system. We had to assume we were the only solar system with planets. We could theorize, but couldn't prove. Then we got the technology to detect exoplanets. No we know, there are lots of star systems with planetary bodies.

The bottom line is that we don't have enough information either way. Our technology is insufficient.
 
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30. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 3, 2018, 10:28 eRe4s3r
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Jan 3, 2018, 07:54:
eRe4s3r wrote on Jan 3, 2018, 01:45:
Mr. Tact wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 22:16:
I wouldn't care to say you are right or wrong eRe4s3r. However, if there are highly advanced, interstellar societies, it is possible they might be essentially run by AIs, similar to the way "Minds" basically run Iain Banks' fictional "Culture". Those AIs could make it very difficult to interfere with other societies by making effectively impossible to get there, since interstellar ships could/would all be controlled by AIs.

Just a possibility with no more evidentiary support than any other -- and admittedly probably an overly optimistic one.

That would be far scarier than being in a zoo
Yeah, well -- that is one of the criticisms of Banks' novels -- the Minds are too "good" or "nice". As presented their control is very benevolent, it seems unlikely we could get that lucky.

Well I have of course read Banks And god-like AGI's like that are imo the only way we will not wipe ourselves out through some stupid nonsense in the future. And at that point we are basically living in our own utopian zoo. Not a bad choice all things considered.
 
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29. Re: Out of the Blue Jan 3, 2018, 09:28 Mr. Tact
 
Oh, and remember: "The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you." - Neil deGrasse Tyson

 
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28. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 3, 2018, 07:54 Mr. Tact
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Jan 3, 2018, 01:45:
Mr. Tact wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 22:16:
I wouldn't care to say you are right or wrong eRe4s3r. However, if there are highly advanced, interstellar societies, it is possible they might be essentially run by AIs, similar to the way "Minds" basically run Iain Banks' fictional "Culture". Those AIs could make it very difficult to interfere with other societies by making effectively impossible to get there, since interstellar ships could/would all be controlled by AIs.

Just a possibility with no more evidentiary support than any other -- and admittedly probably an overly optimistic one.

That would be far scarier than being in a zoo
Yeah, well -- that is one of the criticisms of Banks' novels -- the Minds are too "good" or "nice". As presented their control is very benevolent, it seems unlikely we could get that lucky.
 
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27. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 3, 2018, 05:44 eRe4s3r
 
jdreyer wrote on Jan 3, 2018, 01:42:
eRe4s3r wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 21:54:
jdreyer wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 13:57:
*snip*

The problem with that theory is that it makes no sense. An alien society with technology above ours faces very real ethical questions to stop deaths sicknesses and wars, give us fusion power at least, stop us from killing the planet etc. Interference vs no interference isn't something you can decide on a whim. Imagine if we faced this proposition and you know what we would do, we would interfere. Star Trek prime directive is a big amount of useless text in the face of suffering and empathy.

It's misguided to assume an alien culture shares our values. Who knows what they are thinking. They could be completely agnostic, for example. Do you pay attention to the ants in your yard when you fix the fence?

It's not about sharing values though it'd be nice if they did, it's about the fact that no species behaves 100% monolithic so non-interference would never be the 100% agreed upon opinion. Unless they are an advanced AI or entirely digital, but then a zoo theory makes even less sense, they'd try to integrate us into a digital world. And ants are also very different among their species lines, but ants don't build space-ships Neither does any other living thing on this planet aside from us. Any advanced species would definitely regard space-ships as a sign of high intelligence.... if they got their own space-ships their society must contain scientists and curious individuals after all, and curiosity will never stop at a "you may not pass" sign.

Basically, you can't beat the Fermi Paradox, the most likely scenario (currently) is that we are indeed the only intelligent sentient life-form that is space-faring in our galaxy and any alien life we may ever come across is probably the kind we uplift from slightly lesser species or create ourselves through various factors.

Again, i'd advise you to read up on futurism and the fermi paradox. The read is heavily depressing if you believe in encountering aliens anytime in the next million years. Btw. Being the only one around that is sentient does not mean that we are unique as sentient beings, only that we have a unique time-slot all for us

Note: This does not mean there is no sentient life in this galaxy, just that it didn't get to the evolutionary level needed for advanced technologies either because of habitat (ocean dwellers are the losers in this, no advanced chemistry in water possible) etc.
 
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26. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 3, 2018, 01:45 eRe4s3r
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 22:16:
I wouldn't care to say you are right or wrong eRe4s3r. However, if there are highly advanced, interstellar societies, it is possible they might be essentially run by AIs, similar to the way "Minds" basically run Iain Banks' fictional "Culture". Those AIs could make it very difficult to interfere with other societies by making effectively impossible to get there, since interstellar ships could/would all be controlled by AIs.

Just a possibility with no more evidentiary support than any other -- and admittedly probably an overly optimistic one.

That would be far scarier than being in a zoo
 
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25. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 3, 2018, 01:42 jdreyer
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 21:54:
jdreyer wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 13:57:
*snip*

The problem with that theory is that it makes no sense. An alien society with technology above ours faces very real ethical questions to stop deaths sicknesses and wars, give us fusion power at least, stop us from killing the planet etc. Interference vs no interference isn't something you can decide on a whim. Imagine if we faced this proposition and you know what we would do, we would interfere. Star Trek prime directive is a big amount of useless text in the face of suffering and empathy.

It's misguided to assume an alien culture shares our values. Who knows what they are thinking. They could be completely agnostic, for example. Do you pay attention to the ants in your yard when you fix the fence?

But more importantly, no alien species could have detected us beyond a distance that we can very easily detect anything in. And it'd be a pretty far stretch to assume that they park not 1 space dreadnought with cloaking but a few million of them with crew or advanced AI (wouldn't that be scary) in order to make sure nothing interferes.

There may be entirely unknown means of communication and detection that we have no knowledge of. It might explain why we've never detected "alien" radio waves.

In the unlikely possibility that aliens were visiting the earth, their technology would be thousands or millions of years ahead of ours. It's impossible to predict how it would function, or what its capabilities would be.

Alien
 
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24. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 2, 2018, 22:16 Mr. Tact
 
I wouldn't care to say you are right or wrong eRe4s3r. However, if there are highly advanced, interstellar societies, it is possible they might be essentially run by AIs, similar to the way "Minds" basically run Iain Banks' fictional "Culture". Those AIs could make it very difficult to interfere with other societies by making effectively impossible to get there, since interstellar ships could/would all be controlled by AIs.

Just a possibility with no more evidentiary support than any other -- and admittedly probably an overly optimistic one.
 
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23. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 2, 2018, 21:54 eRe4s3r
 
jdreyer wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 13:57:
*snip*

The problem with that theory is that it makes no sense. An alien society with technology above ours faces very real ethical questions to stop deaths sicknesses and wars, give us fusion power at least, stop us from killing the planet etc. Interference vs no interference isn't something you can decide on a whim. Imagine if we faced this proposition and you know what we would do, we would interfere. Star Trek prime directive is a big amount of useless text in the face of suffering and empathy.

But more importantly, no alien species could have detected us beyond a distance that we can very easily detect anything in. And it'd be a pretty far stretch to assume that they park not 1 space dreadnought with cloaking but a few million of them with crew or advanced AI (wouldn't that be scary) in order to make sure nothing interferes.

As I said, this theory isn't new. The big counter to it is that it assumes monolithic behavior of an entire alien society, and that it all converges on non-interference, which makes even less sense, You'd ALWAYS have outliers and malcontents with that guideline. They would need to enforce this hard, with military fleets numbering billions, sensors in the trillions and FTL. And the last one is really the killer argument ;p Unless FTL exists zoo theory can not. If FTL exists, that alien species would be sprawling trillion trillion planet empire with hundreds of colonized galaxies. And the zoo theory becomes even more moot then.

Caveat: They could choose to be a be sprawling empire in 1 solar system, with space habitats and proto dyson swarms. But that would mean no FTL exists. And if no FTL exists, they couldn't have detected us.
 
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22. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 2, 2018, 16:53 RedEye9
 
jdreyer wrote on Jan 2, 2018, 13:57:
If they were actually extraterrestrials, it's almost as if they got caught with their pants down by a new technology. We haven't had anything like this since, so it's as if they "adjusted."
Nothing to fear
 
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21. Re: Zoo Theory Jan 2, 2018, 13:57 jdreyer
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Jan 1, 2018, 20:19:
Is not new, is not a solution to the fermi paradox, and makes zero sense. Why? Because the effort to establish a non-interference zone around an entire solar system is gigantic, and the tiniest mistake could mean the zoo has a naked alien running around.

TL;DR, I was laughing hard when I read that If you are into the whole fermi paradox thing, then zoo theory is only good for a giggle. Especially considering the time spans involved.

And with giggle I mean it's a total BS theory. Would require FTL travel to actually cordon off a solar system. And 1 crazy alien researcher could easily break into the zoo. There would be various factions in any alien society, and the big one here, interference vs non interference, will always mean that interference wins. Because you can't prevent interference if you don't interfere. And we may not be far ahead in the space game, but we could instantly detect any weapons fire at the edge of the solar system.

From the article:

According to the “Zoo Theory”, given by John A. Ball, an MIT radio astronomer, aliens might be living in some distant galaxy, and they know about the existence of humans, but still, they are purposefully hiding from us and avoiding contact with humans.

I'm not ready to believe that we're being visited by aliens until we have hard proof, but this article is tantalizing. The interesting thing is that these anomalies showed up on the powerful new SPY-1 radar, but didn't show up on less powerful or older radars. If they were actually extraterrestrials, it's almost as if they got caught with their pants down by a new technology. We haven't had anything like this since, so it's as if they "adjusted."

 
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20. Re: Morning Mobilization Jan 2, 2018, 06:50 Scottish Martial Arts
 
Hoop wrote on Jan 1, 2018, 18:32:
All the best for the year ahead, unfortunately for FPS fans the projected releases over next 12 months look decidedly unexciting.
Fingers crossed the delay for Quake Champions is due to the implementation of bot code.

I picked up the early access version on the Steam sale and it is really, really solid. My only real complaint is that the player base is quite small at the moment. Hopefully it gains some traction once the completed version is out.
 
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19. Re: Morning Mobilization Jan 2, 2018, 06:48 Scottish Martial Arts
 
jdreyer wrote on Jan 1, 2018, 15:03:
Which reminds me, I gotta find a good F-35 mod for ArmA 3.

I wonder if any of them simulate the augmented-reality helmet being too big for the cockpit.
 
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18. Re: Out of the Blue Jan 2, 2018, 01:10 Cutter
 
Mark Shermin: Have people from your world been here before?

Starman: Before yes. We are interested in your species.

Mark Shermin: You mean you're some kind of anthropologist? Is that what you're doing here? Just checking us out?

Starman: You are a strange species. Not like any other. And you'd be surprised how many there are. Intelligent but savage.

Yeah, they've got our number alright.
 
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"If the snow begins to fall and you can't find the fire, let the water wash away your sins." - Hope County Choir
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17. Zoo Theory Jan 1, 2018, 20:19 eRe4s3r
 
Is not new, is not a solution to the fermi paradox, and makes zero sense. Why? Because the effort to establish a non-interference zone around an entire solar system is gigantic, and the tiniest mistake could mean the zoo has a naked alien running around.

TL;DR, I was laughing hard when I read that If you are into the whole fermi paradox thing, then zoo theory is only good for a giggle. Especially considering the time spans involved.

And with giggle I mean it's a total BS theory. Would require FTL travel to actually cordon off a solar system. And 1 crazy alien researcher could easily break into the zoo. There would be various factions in any alien society, and the big one here, interference vs non interference, will always mean that interference wins. Because you can't prevent interference if you don't interfere. And we may not be far ahead in the space game, but we could instantly detect any weapons fire at the edge of the solar system.
 
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16. Re: Out of the Blue Jan 1, 2018, 18:32 Hoop
 
All the best for the year ahead, unfortunately for FPS fans the projected releases over next 12 months look decidedly unexciting.
Fingers crossed the delay for Quake Champions is due to the implementation of bot code.
 
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Um .. Behind you...
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15. Re: Out of the Blue Jan 1, 2018, 18:29 BobBob
 
Spent New Years Eve taking the puppy for a long walk while dressed in shorts and a t-shirt.

Hello Cutter.
 
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14. Re: Out of the Blue Jan 1, 2018, 15:52 Retired
 
Hope everyone had a good new year. I went to bed at 6pm. Got up at 7am! Was amazing.

Now a full day of demo of a bathroom in the basement. Maybe a couple extra walls as well......

(stand up shower is 3 walls of cement and metal mesh. HUGE SUCK!)

/Blue no Zodiac joke? Will you be writing Rooster for a while?

This comment was edited on Jan 1, 2018, 16:59.
 
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13. Re: Out of the Blue Jan 1, 2018, 15:31 Creston
 
happy new year peeps.
 
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