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Evening Mobilization

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8. Re: Driverless cars became a reality in 2017 and hardly anyone noticed. Dec 28, 2017, 17:36 Beamer
 
Porn-O-Matic wrote on Dec 28, 2017, 13:59:
Probably because hardly anyone gives a shit. But that's okay, everyone will give a shit the first time a driverless car plows into a school yard and kills a bunch of children. (Wake the fuck up, idiots, it WILL happen.)

But what matters is that it happens less frequently than human drivers do it (wake the fuck up, idiots, it happens frequently!)
 
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7. Re: Driverless cars became a reality in 2017 and hardly anyone noticed. Dec 28, 2017, 13:59 Porn-O-Matic
 
Probably because hardly anyone gives a shit. But that's okay, everyone will give a shit the first time a driverless car plows into a school yard and kills a bunch of children. (Wake the fuck up, idiots, it WILL happen.)  
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6. Re: Morning Mobilization Dec 28, 2017, 12:49 HorrorScope
 
Scottish Martial Arts wrote on Dec 27, 2017, 07:25:
From the sounds of it, the technology is here and it works. It just needs to be scaled up and refined to handle the most technically challenging use cases.

Like an icy hill in January or a high wind rain/foggy day in the bay area hills.
 
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5. Re: Morning Mobilization Dec 27, 2017, 07:25 Scottish Martial Arts
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Dec 26, 2017, 23:06:

Per the article you linked -- and a subheading of the Ars article which Blue linked -- the vehicles have level 4 autonomy: fully autonomous within a subset of environments. Regarding the future of the technology, here are some relevant quotes from Ars:

A key bottleneck will be map data... [but] dismissing Waymo's cars because they only operate around Phoenix is like dismissing early cellular phones because coverage was geographically limited. Once the technology works in one area, it's likely to work about as well in other areas.

One big caveat is that not every city is like Phoenix. Waymo's vehicles haven't yet mastered snow and ice... It's also not clear how well Waymo handles super-dense areas like Manhattan.. Still, in a world where driverless taxis are widely available in Atlanta, Dallas, and Los Angeles, it would be silly to insist that driverless cars don't actually exist yet because they're not yet available in Chicago, New York, or Boston.

From the sounds of it, the technology is here and it works. It just needs to be scaled up and refined to handle the most technically challenging use cases.

Also, to your question about the scale of computing infrastructure needed: Waymo's parent company Alphabet/Google has that kind of infrastructure available.

How do these cars know where to stop. For example at a 4 way stop, why does the car stop and what triggers it to stop and what happens if that isn't there?

To my understanding -- and while I have a working knowledge of AI engineering, I am not an autonomous vehicle engineer -- they have four main classes of sensors: gps, radar, lidar (laser-based radar), and video. With those sensors, an autonomous car is fed a steady stream of data about objects on or near the road, about the relative and absolute velocity of those objects, and about the position and velocity of the autonomous vehicle. That data in turn is probably fed into some sort of AI reinforcement learning model, which has learned over the course of millions of hours of training, to a high degree of probability, what action to take in response to a given set of input data like that mentioned above. Think of it as stimulus and learned response on a super-computational scale. The "learned response" part is why testing has been going on for so long.
 
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4. Re: Evening Mobilization Dec 27, 2017, 00:44 HorrorScope
 
How do these cars know where to stop. For example at a 4 way stop, why does the car stop and what triggers it to stop and what happens if that isn't there? Is it by GPS or is it by things it see's. I was at a very odd 5 way stop this past week and thought, a car is really going to handle this really odd situation how these roads are aligned here?  
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3. Re: Morning Mobilization Dec 26, 2017, 23:06 eRe4s3r
 
Scottish Martial Arts wrote on Dec 26, 2017, 21:49:
eRe4s3r wrote on Dec 26, 2017, 20:20:
driver-less, but it is not autonomous...

Because it's only operating in a fixed area? I'm not understanding the analogy to not being supposed to let go of the wheel of a Tesla in autopilot mode: the Waymo taxis have NO driver at all. The technology hasn't reached the point where autonomous vehicles can fully replaced cars with drivers, but we're at the point where they can effectively replace a large subset of them. That's significant.

Because it can't handle any new or unexpected things (Which is basically where the AI is at right now), if the road changes due to construction and it's not scanned in and mapped these cars will happily drive you off a cliff, literally even as the sensors can't detect a hole in the ground (though I would say it's very unlikely there would be a hole in the road, it can happen ,p). So yes, works limited *fixed* area, but worldwide? Who is going to do the scanning every day, who is going to download the tb of new map data, who is gonna operate the billion petaflop datacenters needed for this? These cars would have to be totally networked, fully autonomous, aware what a construction, mirror, sign that is covered by snow/rain/fog/dust is and handle that. And that's why it's not autonomous and that's why you don't see overland trains and planes automated yet. Once you see those (Trains are infinitely easier to automate)...

Though to be fair you can do a fairly good shuttle service in big cities with level 4 autonomy assuming you scan the entire city road network in near real-time. Not saying that isn't possible, but it's not something car makers should have to do, it's something cities have to do and the parking management needs also some considerations. Well, in an optimal world anyway... so yeah, it is significant but it ain't autonomy that would replace the car infrastructure of our developed western nations. If Waymo actually manages what it says across the US and that means direct town to town travel with these, then they would be level 4 and THAT would be extremely significant.

I will happily link to the car makers autonomy levels explanation
TechRepublic

Remember, they are prototyping this service, their service, their cars. Once they are actually selling it and thus take 100% responsibility for the driving and their accident numbers aren't sky high because human drivers crash into these then I will shut up and buy one

I don't see the value in driverless cars that need babysitting

This comment was edited on Dec 26, 2017, 23:33.
 
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2. Re: Morning Mobilization Dec 26, 2017, 21:49 Scottish Martial Arts
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Dec 26, 2017, 20:20:
driver-less, but it is not autonomous...

Because it's only operating in a fixed area? I'm not understanding the analogy to not being supposed to let go of the wheel of a Tesla in autopilot mode: the Waymo taxis have NO driver at all. The technology hasn't reached the point where autonomous vehicles can fully replaced cars with drivers, but we're at the point where they can effectively replace a large subset of them. That's significant.
 
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1. Re: Evening Mobilization Dec 26, 2017, 20:20 eRe4s3r
 
driver-less, but it is not autonomous... that is why nobody noticed. These are level 3 cars you can have with same functionality in a Tesla or even a modern truck or train. And there is a reason neither of these allow you to let go of the wheel ever.

Actually the 1 niche use for this is literally this, grid like city with very fixed, easy to drive intersections. As we all know, that ain't the real world though outside of very specific cities
 
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