tRump can only fall so far since his approval rating was already low.
w/charts, compared to past presidents

Mr. Tact wrote on Jun 2, 2017, 09:14:
Yes, Nate Silver is not a pollster. Yes, Nate Silver made a reasonably accurate prediction on the overall presidential vote. And I believe the reports which indicate under 100,000 votes across three states would have swung the election to Clinton.

That said, the point I am attempting to make is the fact things are "close" in those elections is inconsequential as long as GOP maintains control. And winning a House seat here or there isn't going to change things. It is going to take a sweeping win in the mid term elections for the Ds to gain the ability to really stop the GOP from doing what they want. And I haven't seen any indication the country is being swept in way to accomplish that.

We are living in the pain of the 2010 census. The GOP made a significant effort to get control of the district drawing bodies by 2010 so they could redraw all the districts to their advantage after the census. It was a well throughout and well executed plan which has effectively given them control of both houses of Congress despite losing the consolidated vote in most states. Those districts are still in place, with one or two exceptions.

It goes further than that.

1) they planned and executed on a 25 year plan to gain control of state legislatures and governorships in order to be able to redistrict. Then they pack and crack to give themselves more house seats.

2) They are currently changing census rules to undercount poor and minority people for the next census next year. They're also cutting the census budget.

3) Liberals also self-pack since they tend to congregate in cities, diluting their voting power.

Not sure what the solution is, but the repub base is both shrinking demographically, and dying off since it's much older. So perhaps despite all of this, we'll get good governance at some point. Note that the last two Republican presidents actually lost the popular vote for their initial elections.

Yes, Nate Silver is not a pollster. Yes, Nate Silver made a reasonably accurate prediction on the overall presidential vote. And I believe the reports which indicate under 100,000 votes across three states would have swung the election to Clinton.

That said, the point I am attempting to make is the fact things are "close" in those elections is inconsequential as long as GOP maintains control. And winning a House seat here or there isn't going to change things. It is going to take a sweeping win in the mid term elections for the Ds to gain the ability to really stop the GOP from doing what they want. And I haven't seen any indication the country is being swept in way to accomplish that.

We are living in the pain of the 2010 census. The GOP made a significant effort to get control of the district drawing bodies by 2010 so they could redraw all the districts to their advantage after the census. It was a well throughout and well executed plan which has effectively given them control of both houses of Congress despite losing the consolidated vote in most states. Those districts are still in place, with one or two exceptions.

jdreyer wrote on Jun 2, 2017, 02:46:
Nate Silver also warned people that according to the polls, Trump had a reasonable chance of winning. He wasn't off the mark at all.

Indeed. Interestingly, as he later pointed out, according to national polls, i.e. not state by state, Clinton had a roughly 3.5 point lead on the eve of the election. She ended up winning the popular vote by about 2 points, putting her final popular vote margin well within the margin of error for national polls. In other words, the polls weren't wrong, they were just poorly interpreted -- perhaps as a result of wishful thinking that our country could not possibly be so moronic as to elect a man so manifestly unsuited for any office, let alone the highest in the land -- leading to an unjustified sense of confidence in Clinton's inevitability.

The state by state polling in the key upper Midwest states that swung the election was not particularly comprehensive, nor was Clinton's supposed lead in those states as impenetrable as it had been for Obama. In other words, there was clear evidence ahead of time -- or at least a clear absence of evidence necessary to support the degree of certainty most of us had about the outcome -- that while Clinton was the favorite, she was not the all-but-certain favorite.

As I recall, on the morning of the election Silver pegged Clinton's chances at ~68%. Put another way, Trump had a, just under, 1 in 3 shot of winning the Presidency. 1 in 3 are not bad chances -- if you told me I had a genuine 1 in 3 chance of being given 100 billion tax free dollars tomorrow, I probably wouldn't be sleeping tonight -- and on election day the chips fell so that the 1 in 3 event happened, however narrow the path to a Trump victory ended up being (about 80,000 votes in three key swing states, according to the Washington Post).

Mr. Tact wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 23:21:

jdreyer wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 23:09:
His support is dropping rapidly, even among hardcore supporters according to the latest polls.

An he is pulling the GOP down with him. Two special election examples: GA06 is an even race while Trump won it easily last Nov. And Trump won MT by 20 points, but the GOP candidate only won by 6 points against a flawed Dem candidate last week.

I've heard various talking heads say things of this nature and I feel it is an overly optimistic point of view. It is so similar to the talk I heard when people were saying Trump could not win the general election. There really is no way to know. I don't trust polls from anyone, including Nate Silver.

Nate Silver also warned people that according to the polls, Trump had a reasonable chance of winning. He wasn't off the mark at all.

I'm over 50 and I have never been contacted by a pollster.

Given that it only takes a few hundred to a 1000 people to make a significant sample size, and there are 320M people in the USA, that you have not been contacted is not surprising.

I'll believe this point of view if/when the Ds make significant gains in the mid term elections.

For sure, you don't want to count your canaries before they are hatched, but when special elections are polling 15 points lower than they were six months ago, that's the canary in the coal mine.

Mr. Tact wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 23:21:
I don't trust polls from anyone, including Nate Silver.

Nate Silver is not a pollster.

jdreyer wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 23:09:
His support is dropping rapidly, even among hardcore supporters according to the latest polls.

An he is pulling the GOP down with him. Two special election examples: GA06 is an even race while Trump won it easily last Nov. And Trump won MT by 20 points, but the GOP candidate only won by 6 points against a flawed Dem candidate last week.

I've heard various talking heads say things of this nature and I feel it is an overly optimistic point of view. It is so similar to the talk I heard when people were saying Trump could not win the general election. There really is no way to know. I don't trust polls from anyone, including Nate Silver. I'm over 50 and I have never been contacted by a pollster.

I'll believe this point of view if/when the Ds make significant gains in the mid term elections.

This comment was edited on Jun 1, 2017, 23:32.

Quboid wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 19:21:

Mr. Tact wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 19:03:
Most everyone who voted for him is thrilled. He is doing what he said he would do. And FWIW, take it with a grain of salt, and any other cliché that applies -- Exxon's public position was we should not pull out of the accord.

I know this will have gone down well, this is the result of science and intelligence being demonised. Does he still have support amongst moderate conservatives, the people who didn't vote for him in the primaries? The people who thought he'd at least surround himself with competent people and 'drain the swamp'?

His support is dropping rapidly, even among hardcore supporters according to the latest polls.

An he is pulling the GOP down with him. Two special election examples: GA06 is an even race while Trump won it easily last Nov. And Trump won MT by 20 points, but the GOP candidate only won by 6 points against a flawed Dem candidate last week.

Creston wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 16:54:
Yay, trump just pulled us out of the Paris Accords. Fuck the environment, BIG OIL AND BIG COAL MUST MAKE MONEY.

Asshole. I hope he dies in a monster tornado.

More likely a hurricane given how much time he spends at Mar a Lago.

Quboid wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 19:21:

I know this will have gone down well, this is the result of science and intelligence being demonised. Does he still have support amongst moderate conservatives, the people who didn't vote for him in the primaries? The people who thought he'd at least surround himself with competent people and 'drain the swamp'?

From the recent polls I've seen, his support among Republicans remains quite high, > 80%, but the percentage of his base who are "strong supporters" is dropping, particularly among his strongest demographic, i.e. middle-aged, high-school educated white men. Meanwhile, his approval ratings among the populace at large remain under water, with 35-40 approving, and 55-60% disapproving. Among the disapproves, the "strongly disapprove" numbers are very high. The takeaway is that Trump is a deeply unpopular President, especially this early in his term, but his support among his base remains strong enough that the Congressional GOP doesn't feel like they have the leeway to abandon him.

Personally, this past week has probably been the most depressing since his inauguration. Trump, and his team's, utter incompetence pretty well ensures he will accomplish nothing of note domestically, which given his and the GOP's stated policy objectives is probably just as well. But in the international realm, there's very little to restrain this moron's worst impulses, and between the NATO Summit and the withdrawal from the Paris Accords, it's becoming very clear that he will follow through on dramatically weakening the post WWII international order of cooperation among democratic, developed nations. Personally, I kind of liked living in an international system of treaty, trade, and non-aggression that gave us the longest run of global peace and prosperity in world history since the Pax Romana of the 2nd century AD. But to each their own: a global system of international competition and zero-sum interest seeking did give us brutal colonial empires and splendid little wars, that sometimes weren't so little, making for fascinating history reading. Although I'm not sure what it will be like to live through it once again.

Should we call the sheriffs department and asked them to do a wellness check on bobbob.

The USA has sunk sooo low under donnys rule that words cannot describe.

Quboid wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 19:21:
Does he still have support amongst moderate conservatives, the people who didn't vote for him in the primaries? The people who thought he'd at least surround himself with competent people and 'drain the swamp'?

It is nearly impossible to know for sure -- only the results of the mid term elections will be definitive. However, I would guess he has lost very little support. Which means he still has support from about 46% of the country...unfortunately, that's sufficient to maintain control.

Mr. Tact wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 19:03:
Most everyone who voted for him is thrilled. He is doing what he said he would do. And FWIW, take it with a grain of salt, and any other cliché that applies -- Exxon's public position was we should not pull out of the accord.

I know this will have gone down well, this is the result of science and intelligence being demonised. Does he still have support amongst moderate conservatives, the people who didn't vote for him in the primaries? The people who thought he'd at least surround himself with competent people and 'drain the swamp'?

The United States joins only two other countries in opposing this historic accord: the war-torn nation of Syria and Nicaragua, whose government is run by a virtual dictatorship.

MAGA?

Most everyone who voted for him is thrilled. He is doing what he said he would do. And FWIW, take it with a grain of salt, and any other cliché that applies -- Exxon's public position was we should not pull out of the accord.

Agent-Zero wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 17:46:

Quboid wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 17:14:
the people who call others cucks

that originates from a direct reference to a fictional book called "Camp of the Saints"

its literally an insult derived from white supremacists.. its straight up neo-nazi shit

Makes sense. I think it's used beyond race but I'd heard it defined as a white person who is racist against whites, which is how racist white people describe non-racist ones. I presume it originally derived from cuckold.

Quboid wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 17:14:
the people who call others cucks

that originates from a direct reference to a fictional book called "Camp of the Saints"

its literally an insult derived from white supremacists.. its straight up neo-nazi shit

Creston wrote on Jun 1, 2017, 16:54:
Yay, trump just pulled us out of the Paris Accords. Fuck the environment, BIG OIL AND BIG COAL MUST MAKE MONEY.

Asshole. I hope he dies in a monster tornado.

He really is an utter cunt. I wonder if people still think the media was unfair to him or have they accepted that he got lots of criticism because he's an awful president and an awful person.

His most ardent supporters effectively claim he got elected because they, the people who call others cucks, thought the man who literally lived in a tower would fight for them. The people who call others snowflakes couldn't handle getting repeatedly shown to be incorrect. The people who called others triggered got offended by fucking everything. This is what their "this is why Trump won" mantra means, they thought Trump was the answer to people pointing out their many failings.

Most have neither the intelligence nor the bravery to accept their mistake. I just hope enough do.

I know I hide it well, but this pisses me off a little bit. I suppose I should wind my neck in too, it's not like damaging the planet is nearly as bad as the cast of Hamilton telling Pence to maybe not be racist.

This comment was edited on Jun 1, 2017, 17:40.

Yay, trump just pulled us out of the Paris Accords. Fuck the environment, BIG OIL AND BIG COAL MUST MAKE MONEY.

Asshole. I hope he dies in a monster tornado.

I liked that movie a lot better when it was the Key and Peele version, "Keanu."