jdreyer wrote on Nov 9, 2016, 14:28:
You're right, it's not all about racism. As I discussed yesterday, there are two main factors that influence most of the smaller ones: the shrinking of the white base and the associated loss of power, and the America-as-oligarchy issue. Trump, whether intentionally or subconsciously, played both issues masterfully: opposing refugees, opposing immigration, opposing the TPP, talking up tariffs on China, bragging about how he bought and paid for politicians, etc. etc. Non-college whites are 40% of the electorate, and he got nearly 100% of that vote because these issues resonate with them.
I think the racism stuff is a handwave, those people are a minority. With most people elections are about their bank account. Not everyone has benefited from international trade agreements, we've seen a huge shift in wealth distribution over the past 30 years. I'm not the slightest bit surprised that people rejected Clinton and her political dynasty. Trump just got elected president on the basis that he is not like the rest of Washington. Middle class Americans elected a "billionaire" with zero political experience that has plenty of his own baggage. It's incredible and speaks to just how deeply upset Americans are with the status quo.
As Bernie Sanders said last year: "I think the discontent of the American people is far, far greater than the pundits understand."
Why were the polls off? We'll see in a few days what happened there, but my suspicion is that people lied to the pollsters. The most reliable polls are interview polls, and admitting you're voting for Trump is embarrassing given his crudeness.
Hasn't been helped by the media. The media has been try to condescend and guilt people into their line of thought for awhile now and that might work while the camera is on but at the voting center people can do whatever they want without someone pressuring them.
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