descender wrote on Jun 20, 2016, 18:56:
The only bone I will pick is "in your 26 years of driving"... while you may not have caused an accident you can be damn sure there were times that you were inattentive, distracted or otherwise could have caused an accident if the situation was different. Confirmation bias in it's truest form. I know you think you haven't, but that is exactly the point. Fractions of a second here or there are all I'm talking about. You think you're paying attention, but you're singing a song or thinking about some shit at work.
Fair enough, but now you're really arguing semantics. I have never been distracted to the point where it interfered with me safely being able to operate a car. I don't think about "shit at work" when I'm going 70mph in heavy traffic and overtaking some guy who I noticed swerving around in his lane five seconds earlier.
When traffic is quiet and there's nobody really near me, I'm sure my mind has wandered. Even so, other than my mind wandering, the only thing I'm doing is driving my car. I don't pull out my phone to see what's new on twitter.
The AI is never doing anything except spending 100% of it's time driving the car.
The AI (and let's be honest, it's not a freaking AI.) also never has more skill to react to something than what was coded into it. So if it comes into a situation that has not been coded for, it's screwed. Where this is concerned, at least Tesla has a valid claim for their self-driving vehicles, because every Tesla sold is gathering reams of data on where and how they drive for the main company to use.
Furthermore, the self-driving software spends 100% of its time driving the car, until it borks. And since it's a computer, it WILL bork. Hopefully for the people in the car, it won't bork right in a potentially life threatening situation. To give a nice example, about two weeks ago, suddenly owners of certain Lexus vehicles got a nice little blinking purple screen on their touch screen displays. Nav didn't work anymore, in most cases the airconditioning didn't work anymore, and they had to all take them into the dealer for a hard reset to get their units functional again. Cause? A bad OTA update.
Let's hope that never happens while you're in traffic going 75 mph (or even the vaunted 100mph you're talking about.)
The goal of autonomous cars is not so people can sleep on the way to work, it's to automate every car on the road so that we can have travel speeds exceeding 100MPH and eliminate ALL traffic.
That will never happen in my lifetime. Self driving cars will drive at literally the speed limit (so 65-70) and no faster, and no government turdwallet is going to be the first to go "Hey, we can safely increase the speed to 100mph." Maybe 50 years from now they'll go there.
You, as cautious as you may be, will never be able to keep up with an automated system and would be a liability to every other automated car around you.
Not in my lifetime.
(in fairness, I have always said that when I get too old to drive anything other than 100% safe, I want people to take my keys away from me. So at that point, I likely would get a self-driving car and just hope I don't become one of the BSOD deaths.)
The in-between period where both drivers and driverless cars co-exist will be a nightmare, because the automated cars literally have to be programmed to anticipate every stupid thing a human driver could do before people will deem them "safe enough".
Well, that period is going to be at least fifty years, if not more. It'll take two generational shifts, most likely, before there will be an entire population that considers self-driving cars normal, and will use them at will. My generation, for sure, will have a lot of leftovers who refuse to buy into it. (and again, I think the technology is fine and SHOULD be forced onto people who cause accidents because they weren't paying attention, and I think it could be fantastic for the elderly who otherwise can't drive. But I also know how god awfully terribly computers screw things up, and I'm not going to be the test case for some Google Car sending me careening into a semi head-on because some frikking sensor got dirty.)
If they (somehow, magically) cut the entire fleet over in one shot to automated, nearly every traffic incident would be eliminated because all cars would be in constant communication and any developing incident with any individual vehicle could be accommodated nearly instantly. Car 00003346530016 blows a tire and the AI moves every car behind it out of that lane within a second of it happening.
Multi-car pile-ups become a thing of the past.
In a utopia, sure. In reality, that mass switchover never happens, because literally the entire GDP of the entire world couldn't pay for it to happen, nor could the production capacity of the entire planet even come close to filling 1% of the amount of cars that are required.
Furthermore, let's get real, this is corporate America/the world we're talking about. All of these cars are going to come with proprietary bullshit that won't talk to model A, B, or C from manufacturer, D, E and F.
Btw, I'd like to point out that so far, self-driving cars:
A) Don't work well in the rain.
B) Don't work for shit in the snow/fog.
C) Don't really work well on not-well-defined roads.
So yeah, if we switch over tomorrow, I guess we'll have a lot of vacation days due to rain. This comment was edited on Jun 21, 2016, 15:21.