Op Ed

Steam Spy — Your target audience doesn’t exist. Thanks Slashdot via Ant.
"I get it. It makes for a good headline 'The rise of MOBA'. 'The fall of core gamer'. 'The rise of China'. And it’s usually an interesting read, filled with data. Data that’s both well-described and convincing, because if MOBA are on the rise and core gamers are no longer the majority, it makes sense to apply this knowledge somehow, right?

And of course you should, but don’t target any new market or new audience just because you’ve suddenly realized it exists. Dota 2 audience exists, there are around 55 million gamers that have tried it and 9.5 million gamers have played it in the last two weeks.

Does it mean they’re enjoying MOBA? Yes.

Does it mean they will even take a peek at yours? Nope, they’re too busy.

And same goes for the lucrative Chinese mobile market, by the way."

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28 Replies. 2 pages. Viewing page 1.
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28.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 24, 2015, 08:21
28.
Re: Op Ed Aug 24, 2015, 08:21
Aug 24, 2015, 08:21
 
Interesting point I find is only 9.5 mil bother playing the crappy dota.

As it is free, and once you try that sh*t, you cannot remove it from your library.

45million of us, technically own it but can't remove it from our owned games in steam.

9.5 looks high, I would suspect that only a minority of that actually bother playing regularly, and most are people just trying it, find out it's Sh*t and never come back (or keep having a look to see if its got any better!!!!).

I suspect extreme churn rates, if you were allowed to delete it fully.
It only probably gets so many installs due to amount of hyped news about it and people try it, thinking it must be amazing(it's not, it's utter sh*t!) due to the hype.
27.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 24, 2015, 03:39
27.
Re: Op Ed Aug 24, 2015, 03:39
Aug 24, 2015, 03:39
 
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 13:25:
Kajetan wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 11:22:
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 10:46:
Steam likes being the biggest kid on the block by a large margin.
Which it is. Regarding those Steam numbers ... can you imagine how small the customer base of Origin or Uplay really is? I wonder if Origin and Uplay are kept alive because the board simply wants to be present on the online distribution market. And not because they make a decent profit.

I have no doubt Uplay and Origin are both smaller... now. Still, both services have some AAA titles that have sold and will sell in the future. How many millions of copies of Star Wars Battlefront are going to get activated on Origin this year, 2 million? 10 million? I don't think Origin is that much smaller than Steam. I'd really like to see some in depth information on all the online services. I'm tempted to write Uplay off as just annoying DRM but Ubisoft has a couple high selling franchises that force Uplay on their customers, so their numbers might be fairly high also.
I don't think that EA would be giving older games away for free if they weren't an order of magnitude behind Steam. They'd sooner pull their own fingernails out with pliers first.
If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends. Slava Ukraini!
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26.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 22:49
26.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 22:49
Aug 23, 2015, 22:49
 
Kajetan wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 11:22:
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 10:46:
Steam likes being the biggest kid on the block by a large margin.
Which it is. Regarding those Steam numbers ... can you imagine how small the customer base of Origin or Uplay really is? I wonder if Origin and Uplay are kept alive because the board simply wants to be present on the online distribution market. And not because they make a decent profit.

It's all about control of the market via online only games/drm. Consider how infected most new games are with online requirements. Basically the idiot masses have handed everything the corporate world wanted over in spades. People are fucking are idiots.
25.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 13:25
25.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 13:25
Aug 23, 2015, 13:25
 
Kajetan wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 11:22:
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 10:46:
Steam likes being the biggest kid on the block by a large margin.
Which it is. Regarding those Steam numbers ... can you imagine how small the customer base of Origin or Uplay really is? I wonder if Origin and Uplay are kept alive because the board simply wants to be present on the online distribution market. And not because they make a decent profit.

I have no doubt Uplay and Origin are both smaller... now. Still, both services have some AAA titles that have sold and will sell in the future. How many millions of copies of Star Wars Battlefront are going to get activated on Origin this year, 2 million? 10 million? I don't think Origin is that much smaller than Steam. I'd really like to see some in depth information on all the online services. I'm tempted to write Uplay off as just annoying DRM but Ubisoft has a couple high selling franchises that force Uplay on their customers, so their numbers might be fairly high also.
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24.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 11:22
24.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 11:22
Aug 23, 2015, 11:22
 
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 10:46:
Steam likes being the biggest kid on the block by a large margin.
Which it is. Regarding those Steam numbers ... can you imagine how small the customer base of Origin or Uplay really is? I wonder if Origin and Uplay are kept alive because the board simply wants to be present on the online distribution market. And not because they make a decent profit.
23.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 10:46
23.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 10:46
Aug 23, 2015, 10:46
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 10:23:
No, but I would argue that Steam should reveal public information of things sold on it's platform, like sale stats. Currently steam does everything it can to hide this. We don't even know how the "top" listings are calculated. And I am not part of the group that thinks these informations should be secret. If you release a game on steam, the number of sales and number of refunds should be listed public. Mainly because I don't see why not. It's not a market problem when others see how many sales you have.

I agree, that would be some very interesting information to have access to, but I don't see any legal reason in the US or UK, for them to make it public. They will probably never voluntarily release that kind of information for at least a dozen reasons, but I'm sure primarily because it might give Uplay, Gamergate, Origin or whatever other online seller an advantage. Steam likes being the biggest kid on the block by a large margin.

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22.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 10:23
22.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 10:23
Aug 23, 2015, 10:23
 
No, but I would argue that Steam should reveal public information of things sold on it's platform, like sale stats. Currently steam does everything it can to hide this. We don't even know how the "top" listings are calculated. And I am not part of the group that thinks these informations should be secret. If you release a game on steam, the number of sales and number of refunds should be listed public. Mainly because I don't see why not. It's not a market problem when others see how many sales you have.

Same for iTunes, so no, I don't want them telling what to create, but I want them to share sale data.
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21.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 10:08
21.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 10:08
Aug 23, 2015, 10:08
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Aug 23, 2015, 08:06:
For Steam which is not at the stock exchange, it makes no difference. But for developers and publishers selling on steam this makes a HUGE difference.

While that's definitely true, it's absolutely not Steam's responsibility. They're a distributor, not a publisher. If the developer or their publisher can't be bothered to research or don't care about the results before releasing another clone on the market it's on them, not Steam. And unlike past traditional distribution methods where physical shelf space was a valid concern, as a digital platform, it's irrelevant.

So if you want to release the 14th MOBA this quarter as if yous will be the one to finally cut away a substantial part of the LoL / DOTA2 market well... good luck with that. I would have invested the entire development budget in lottery tickets.

Really though, would you argue that iTunes should be telling musicians what style of music to create?
20.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 08:06
20.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 08:06
Aug 23, 2015, 08:06
 
mag wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 21:01:
eRe4s3r wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 19:15:
NKD wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:04:
Really puts Steam in perspective. Only around 1.3 million Steam users buy a significant number of games, and to be a member of the top 20%, you only need to own four games.

80-90% of Steam users may as well not exist for how little they participate in the PC gaming market. I never would have guessed those numbers.

Yeah this is again an eye opener... it still baffles the mind why Steam didn't make this public themselves.

It baffles you as to why Steam would keep it private that less than 1/5 of its userbase actually buys games? They want people to think they have 10M customers.

But that makes zero sense, Steam wants to have successful games on their platform and if these numbers are right, then any MOBA or clone of some other game by default caters to an audience that doesn't exist. Wouldn't you see this as an important info that Steam gives to developers? Don't make games targeted at the 60m DOTA2 players, as they on average only own 12 games?

For Steam which is not at the stock exchange, it makes no difference. But for developers and publishers selling on steam this makes a HUGE difference.
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19.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 06:11
19.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 06:11
Aug 23, 2015, 06:11
 
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:35:
panbient wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 12:29:
Awww man... you need 107 games in your Steam library to be part of the One Percent?

I only have 102. I feel like such a loser now hahaha

Only 107?! Pfft. Try getting three times that number and then we'll talk!

.33%ers unite!

Yeah, I have, uh, 363 Embarassed
If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends. Slava Ukraini!
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18.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 23, 2015, 05:13
18.
Re: Op Ed Aug 23, 2015, 05:13
Aug 23, 2015, 05:13
 
mag wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 21:01:
It baffles you as to why Steam would keep it private that less than 1/5 of its userbase actually buys games? They want people to think they have 10M customers.

The reality is not how many people don't buy games, the reality is game developers have been making shitty games for people that suck at games (league of legends, dota 2). Quality hardcore games like Hard reset, Shadow warrior 2013 are rare.

Games that used to be hardcore like battlefield, etc, have basically lost quality. The reason the gaming public doesn't buy as many games is because games that are being released aren't buyworthy and definitely not buyworthy at full price when its stuffed with DRM.

I really despise how developers complain about shitty sales and they are either 1) a one man/few man indie shop or 2) are totally money grubbing DRM/F2P asswipes.

The reality is steam has made it easy for developers to release shit to the gullible half of the internet community. I pretty much only buy games on gog and anything I deem noteworthy that is of AAA quality I get for less then $10, since paying full price for steam / DRM infected games is bad news.

Developers really need to get their heads out of their asses and make better games and release on other platforms besides steam like GOG. I am a huge fan of the hard reset devs, flying wild hog. They are one of the few last traditional developers that give a flying fuck about 'real gaming' as it was in the 90's.
17.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 23:15
17.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 23:15
Aug 22, 2015, 23:15
 
Mashiki Amiketo wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 22:04:
Ozmodan wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 19:43:

On a side note, most of the PC's the major brands sell don't come with a dedicated graphics card nor a power supply that can support one, hence a lot of people either need some expensive upgrades or a better PC to play the better games.

I think you mean people are getting ripped off with the 'major pre-built pc's' and if they built them, themselves or had someone do it for them they could pay an equal price and get more out of their money. Especially when you look at R*'s recent sales numbers on the PC, which is somewhere in the range of 5.5m units if I remember right. That either means everyone is buying 3 copies, or there are more people out there then they realize.

Something that this analysis misses, is other services like Origin or Humble, R*'s thingy. Especially titles that are only released on a particular distribution platform. Those alone make the analysis lacking in terms of 'what people are buying and looking at.'

I think he underscores pretty clearly exactly what he's analyzing:

Because if you’re developing a downloadable game for Steam you’re not even fighting for 135M of its active users, you’re fighting for the attention of 1.3 million gamers that are actually buying lots of games.

The title of his website, and the focus of all of his blogging... it's Steam. He's talking specifically about Steam. His guesstimates are shaky enough without them being stretched to encompass all of PC gaming.
16.
 
No subject
Aug 22, 2015, 22:04
16.
No subject Aug 22, 2015, 22:04
Aug 22, 2015, 22:04
 
Ozmodan wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 19:43:

On a side note, most of the PC's the major brands sell don't come with a dedicated graphics card nor a power supply that can support one, hence a lot of people either need some expensive upgrades or a better PC to play the better games.

I think you mean people are getting ripped off with the 'major pre-built pc's' and if they built them, themselves or had someone do it for them they could pay an equal price and get more out of their money. Especially when you look at R*'s recent sales numbers on the PC, which is somewhere in the range of 5.5m units if I remember right. That either means everyone is buying 3 copies, or there are more people out there then they realize.

Something that this analysis misses, is other services like Origin or Humble, R*'s thingy. Especially titles that are only released on a particular distribution platform. Those alone make the analysis lacking in terms of 'what people are buying and looking at.'
--
"For every human problem,
there is a neat, simple solution;
and it is always wrong."
--H.L. Mencken
15.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 21:47
15.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 21:47
Aug 22, 2015, 21:47
 
Genesys wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 21:21:
mag wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 21:01:
eRe4s3r wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 19:15:
NKD wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:04:
Really puts Steam in perspective. Only around 1.3 million Steam users buy a significant number of games, and to be a member of the top 20%, you only need to own four games.

80-90% of Steam users may as well not exist for how little they participate in the PC gaming market. I never would have guessed those numbers.
Yeah this is again an eye opener... it still baffles the mind why Steam didn't make this public themselves.
It baffles you as to why Steam would keep it private that less than 1/5 of its userbase actually buys games? They want people to think they have 10M customers.
I'm probably missing something somewhere... Manually totaling the Peak counts of the top 100 games on Steam's stats page gives me ~2.7M users. Are most of these people playing the only Steam game they own? Does that make sense?

And holy cow DOTA 2 has a lot of active players.

That's what Steam Spy is claiming, yes. Or a large portion of them, anyway. For most people who play Dota 2 or CS:GO or TF2, it is probably so that that is the only game they play. Or maybe they dabble in a couple other of the most popular titles.

However, totaling together peak counts is not a good way to estimate anything. You are liable to be counting the same person multiple times, playing one game at its peak period, another game at another peak period, etc.
14.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 21:21
14.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 21:21
Aug 22, 2015, 21:21
 
mag wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 21:01:
eRe4s3r wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 19:15:
NKD wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:04:
Really puts Steam in perspective. Only around 1.3 million Steam users buy a significant number of games, and to be a member of the top 20%, you only need to own four games.

80-90% of Steam users may as well not exist for how little they participate in the PC gaming market. I never would have guessed those numbers.
Yeah this is again an eye opener... it still baffles the mind why Steam didn't make this public themselves.
It baffles you as to why Steam would keep it private that less than 1/5 of its userbase actually buys games? They want people to think they have 10M customers.
I'm probably missing something somewhere... Manually totaling the Peak counts of the top 100 games on Steam's stats page gives me ~2.7M users. Are most of these people playing the only Steam game they own? Does that make sense?

And holy cow DOTA 2 has a lot of active players.
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13.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 21:01
mag
13.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 21:01
Aug 22, 2015, 21:01
mag
 
eRe4s3r wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 19:15:
NKD wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:04:
Really puts Steam in perspective. Only around 1.3 million Steam users buy a significant number of games, and to be a member of the top 20%, you only need to own four games.

80-90% of Steam users may as well not exist for how little they participate in the PC gaming market. I never would have guessed those numbers.

Yeah this is again an eye opener... it still baffles the mind why Steam didn't make this public themselves.

It baffles you as to why Steam would keep it private that less than 1/5 of its userbase actually buys games? They want people to think they have 10M customers.
12.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 20:54
Jivaro
 
12.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 20:54
Aug 22, 2015, 20:54
 Jivaro
 
jacobvandy wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 20:29:
Would have to see his data to extrapolate further, but I'm sure it's an exponential curve rather than linear, so tripling what qualifies you for the top 1% likely puts you in the top 0.1%. So then when someone like me has double the number you do, we're talking probably 0.01%.

I suck at math...where does 589 put me? .needtogetalife% ?
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11.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 20:29
11.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 20:29
Aug 22, 2015, 20:29
 
MoreLuckThanSkill wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:35:
panbient wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 12:29:
Awww man... you need 107 games in your Steam library to be part of the One Percent?

I only have 102. I feel like such a loser now hahaha

Only 107?! Pfft. Try getting three times that number and then we'll talk!

.33%ers unite!

Would have to see his data to extrapolate further, but I'm sure it's an exponential curve rather than linear, so tripling what qualifies you for the top 1% likely puts you in the top 0.1%. So then when someone like me has double the number you do, we're talking probably 0.01%.
10.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 19:43
10.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 19:43
Aug 22, 2015, 19:43
 
Not sure how he good the data is, but personally I think MOBA's are just a introduction to gaming. If you are not bored playing one for more than 6 months you are either one dumb sob or have serious issues.

As to the mobile market, I have yet to find one that is much better than trash PC games and I have both android and apple pads.

I see a lot of steam cards in the stores lately, they would not carry them if people were not using them.

On a side note, most of the PC's the major brands sell don't come with a dedicated graphics card nor a power supply that can support one, hence a lot of people either need some expensive upgrades or a better PC to play the better games.
9.
 
Re: Op Ed
Aug 22, 2015, 19:15
9.
Re: Op Ed Aug 22, 2015, 19:15
Aug 22, 2015, 19:15
 
NKD wrote on Aug 22, 2015, 18:04:
Really puts Steam in perspective. Only around 1.3 million Steam users buy a significant number of games, and to be a member of the top 20%, you only need to own four games.

80-90% of Steam users may as well not exist for how little they participate in the PC gaming market. I never would have guessed those numbers.

Yeah this is again an eye opener... it still baffles the mind why Steam didn't make this public themselves.
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