Exactly, it's a smart marketing gamble. I don't think people get how much of a risk this is in terms of pissing off their retail partners either. Valve is like any other company, they sell shitloads of their games at Wal-mart and Gamestop. No one releases early and lets their customers participate in setting that date in the traditional industry. This is a really big deal and could potentially set some future precedent. This kind of shit is great for us, people constantly bitch at the industry's inflexible release standards.
You have to wonder how much of a gamble it really is. I think there's a good reason why they started it on Friday and not last weekend. If it had started last weekend, the game would have likely been unlocked at least a week before retail. However, because they started it on Friday, it looks like the game will unlock on Monday at the very earliest. The requirements for unlocking the game seem pretty high as well. Also, Valve hasn't given any specific goals for players to meet. As mentioned by other posters, the calculations seem to vary per game. Killing Floor has by far the most players (and therefore highest total playtime), yet it's bar shows the least amount of progress. If the playtime for every game factored equally into the countdown calculation
and Valve provided a specific number for the total playtime that players need to reach, I think players would be making much quicker progress. Finally, when you consider the fact that these indie games were never going to get as much playtime as other, higher-profile games, this marketing campaign doesn't really look like a gamble at all. Keep in mind that Valve knows exactly how many copies each game has sold and how much time has been spent playing each one. The fact that no specific goals have been set and that each game is weighted differently towards the countdown suggests that Valve has a lot more control over the Portal 2 unlock date than the players.
Once again, this is not a criticism of the idea of letting players affect release dates, so there's no need to start ranting about entitlements and such. However, Valve's implementation of this idea isn't quite as daring or altruistic as some of you seem to think.
This comment was edited on Apr 17, 2011, 03:46.