All the forecasts I've seen continue to be revised, downward. It's certainly difficult to call it a success when the benchmarks for such success are constantly being revised. These reports seem to neglect to mention the number of DVD movies and DVD players still being sold.
What is your criteria for success? Do you believe that bluray DVD players will reach 32 million in 2011 as predicted in 2007?http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-178976697.html
Might as well just call it PS3 sales right now. How about if you take into account only players that aren't PS3s? And what percentage of PS3s are actually be used for blu-ray movies? Tying blu-ray to the PS3 was a great move by Sony, because the total number of blu-ray players out there would have been a fraction of what it is now without them. But now they have to wait to find out if people want to spend the money on blu-ray movies, even if they already own the player.
I believe the price point of blu-ray movies is too high. People will pay for innovative products they consider worth the price, as long as they can make use of the product and experience the benefit. They aren't moronic if they decide the benefit isn't worth the cost. Buying everything that comes on the market any any price wouldn't be smart either and would be just as harmful to true innovation.