My official response: *snort*!

The Flying Penguin wrote on Sep 29, 2022, 12:41:
Weather reporter hit by tree branch:

Wasn't much of a hit.

Personally I always considered those types of shots as a kind of performance art but you're probably right that there are some idiots who will see those broadcasts and decide to not venture out. Then again, there are probably just as many idiots who see it and say, "That looks like fun, let's go try it!"....

On Coolio, placing my bet on cocaine and some other drug...

1badmf wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 22:33:

Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 13:21:

ZandarKoad wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 12:37:
The most explicit part of Magnus' very well-prepared statement is:

"I believe that Niemann has cheated more - and more recently - than he has publicly admitted...."

My response to this is, you can believe sunshine comes out of your ass -- it doesn't make it so. Put up or shut up. Your non-specific accusations are not doing anything positive for the game you spent your entire lifetime on.

Hans is a known cheater. he's admitted to cheating in online chess tourneys and he's been permanently banned from... chess.com i believe? and in my experience, someone's who's been caught cheating, has almost certainly been cheating a lot. certainly more than just the few times he's been caught. he's lost all benefit of the doubt in my opinion, but i would certainly like to see better evidence than what MC has put up. a lot of chess commentators have said that at the GM level, you only need to cheat once or twice during a match to flip a huge advantage, so that's why it's really hard to detect. how would he do it? well if you can cheat live in who wants to be a millionaire, you can do it in chess as well.

If you have been following the conversations in the topics which this has been discussed I said Niemann had admitted to cheating in online chess when he was 12 and 16. Would you like to be held permanently responsible for the stupid things you did before you were of voting age? Did you continue to do those stupid things? I know I wouldn't and I didn't. That said, yes it is a mark against him.

It is irresponsible of you (or Carlsen or anyone else) to say he ".. has almost certainly been cheating a lot..." without providing any evidence of it. Analysis of his games has been inconsistent. Some claiming there is no reason to think there is cheating going on, others saying some of his game have a 100% correlation to chess engines.

Mr. Tact wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 09:09:
But the question then becomes if you think he is cheating, how do you propose he is doing it? At these major tournaments, like the one Carlsen withdrew from after losing to Niemann, the players walk through metal detectors and are hand wanded with metal detectors. What do you propose be done to stop this supposed cheating? Is Carlsen willing to submit to a cavity search to ensure he isn't cheating?

Yeah, when I renewed two years ago it was a Real ID version. *shrug* Whatever.

The Flying Penguin wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 15:13:
I get a graph that shows me current draw and the peak is 22Kw.

Uh, okay. Please excuse me if I am being stupid. But are you saying you used 22 kWhs in an hour? I installed solar panels this spring, hence I have been watching my power usage closely. And even in the heat of summer with electrical AC my biggest days of usage was in the mid 40s of kWhs for the entire day. Now, I do live alone, so add three people to make a family of four and can easily imagine doubling or possibly even tripling that. But 22 kWhs in an hour?

The Flying Penguin wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 14:39:
The generator is a 4 cylinder beast: 38kW, but at peak it's never had to deliver more than 22kW, and averages far less according to the log.

Per day?

I was guessing the 500 gallon tank was the "normal" propane tanks you see at rural homes here in the Midwest and it looks like I was right. Buried though, yeah I bet that cost a pretty penny. They don't bury them around here -- at least I would assume not based on how many I see above ground.

The Flying Penguin wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 14:13:
Going to find out how long my whole house generator will run off a 500 gallon propane tank. This will be the first time in 5 years it's been fired up except for bimonthly loaded tests. The company that installed the generator says I might get 5 days out of it, maybe six if I limit my power use. The tank is not full, but close to it. I always fill it before hurricane season.

They didn't rate it as producing X kWhs? That would make it a lot easier to figure out how long it would last (assuming you know your usage). Good luck, stay safe.

A Washington Post opinion piece has a link to an analysis of Niemann's games which finds "no reason whatsoever to suspect him of cheating". And a link to an interview with current GM Fabiano Caruana who says about the analysis:

“I would take Regan’s analysis with the large grain of salt, and the reason why is not because I have any insight into his algorithm or his methods, but because I know of a case of, a very high profile case, where with absolute certainty I can say that someone was cheating in an important event. And the person was investigated and was also exonerated based on Regan’s analysis. And I am certain that there was cheating. There is no doubt in my mind that this person was cheating and they got away with it.“.

I'd like a bit more information about how he knows with certainty, I hope his certainty has more evidence that Carlsen's...

ZandarKoad wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 12:37:
The most explicit part of Magnus' very well-prepared statement is:

"I believe that Niemann has cheated more - and more recently - than he has publicly admitted...."

My response to this is, you can believe sunshine comes out of your ass -- it doesn't make it so. Put up or shut up. Your non-specific accusations are not doing anything positive for the game you spent your entire lifetime on.

Looking again, my recollection may not be quite correct. I re-watched the review of the game I had seen and it doesn't mention the opening being totally new for Carlsen. If I find the video saying that I'll post a link...

If you would like to see a contemporaneous review of the game go to 17:42 in this video. The next day Gotham Chess commented on Carlsen's withdraw at the beginning of his next video here and more the next day.

Yeah, I am a chess noob also -- I'm simply relaying information I have gotten elsewhere. Although in the last year or so I've been paying some attention to chess. I have watched reviews of a number of tournaments, starting with the last World Championship.

Another thing some consider suspicious is in the tournament which Carlsen withdrew after losing to Niemann -- in the game, (as I understand it) Carlsen used an opening which he literally had never used in a match which had been recorded. Niemann played well, seemingly (to some) as if he was prepared for the opening. In the interview after the match Niemann claimed he had, by random chance, reviewed that particular opening in his preparation. Why would he review an opening Carlsen had never been known to use? Then again, it can be argued Carlsen has a habit of using unusual/uncommon openings. Some people even leapt to the conclusion that someone on Carlsen's team must of leaked the opening to Niemann.

Well, it doesn't help that Niemann has admitted cheating in online games when he was 12 and 16 years old. A kid doing something stupid? Shocking, I know. He admits he did it, admits it was stupid. Should it be forgiven and forgotten? Probably. But it helps to create a cloud of suspicion. However, it is not sufficient cause for Carlsen to effectively ruin his career.

"EA BIG NEWS Not Actually Big"

I am shocked. SHOCKED!

VaranDragon wrote on Sep 28, 2022, 08:43:
Also what the fuck does this mean, and I quote:

"Unfortunately at this time I am limited in what I can say without explicit permission from Niemann"

I assume it means, "I don't want to be sued for 'defamation of character', so unless Niemann gives me a legal release saying he won't sue, I won't directly defame him."

The only "evidence" I have seen that Niemann might have cheated in some of his over the board games (let's ignore any online games) was an analysis program which compares games against computer engine moves and gives a "correlation" of the actual moves vs what the computer engine thinks are the best moves. Basically you can run this analysis against any recorded game. It was run against many of the best known players/games. For instance, the famous 20 game win streak by Bobby Fischer -- the correlation in that streak was 79%. There were games by various players in various games where they were over 80%, even a couple over 90%. However, apparently Niemann is the only one with games which hit 100% correlation. It is worth saying there are games which are widely believed to be "amazingly well played games" which only score in the 50-60% range.

Is that proof? No. Is it evidence? Maybe. Does it raise suspicions? Perhaps. It is definitely odd. But the question then becomes if you think he is cheating, how do you propose he is doing it? At these major tournaments, like the one Carlsen withdrew from after losing to Niemann, the players walk through metal detectors and are hand wanded with metal detectors. What do you propose be done to stop this supposed cheating? Is Carlsen willing to submit to a cavity search to ensure he isn't cheating?

Yes. Carlsen couldn't have handled this much worse if he had planned it.

Okay, I disagree with your choice of language, but agree with what you are saying. Yes, it is the nature of the human body for it to degrade over time. Any male human who lives long enough will eventually have prostrate problems. But calling any portion of that degrading body "bad" even when it is not causing pain or discomfort is in my humble opinion inaccurate and depending on your attitude, possibly disingenuous.

Stumbled onto this some what interesting, one year old video: Former fusion scientist on why we won't have fusion power by 2040.

Nucas wrote on Sep 27, 2022, 20:33:
the truth. we all get bad backs as we age, its just the universal of human life.

While it might be the truth of modern living, it isn't a necessary truth. Jack LaLanne and other fitness focused individuals have shown this. Don't get me wrong, I think exercise is two four letter words. I know I should do some basic exercises for my core so I won't have back issues, but I'll be damned if I can find the drive to do it. Being a complete lazy bum isn't all sunshine and roses you know...

(for the record, I don't often have any back issues and when I do they are usually the result of me "overdoing" something)

PropheT wrote on Sep 27, 2022, 01:35:
It doesn't really matter what I think about what he revealed, and it doesn't even have much to do with power. You can't pardon leaking classified information, or the entire system around keeping it classified is compromised.

You do know the system was collecting information in an illegal way, right? To say you can't report the government when they are acting illegally is problematic at best. I want to say he tried to raise concerns up the chain, but I honestly don't remember for sure -- it has been a while.

Burrito of Peace wrote on Sep 26, 2022, 22:25:
Snowden belongs back int the US with a full pardon.

I agree. He is a whistleblower not a traitor. Hopefully history will treat him well, because I think it is likely the chances the politics around his actions will sufficiently quiet down prior to him dying of old age, are not good.

Heck, I figure my 3900X is fine for at least a few years.