Burrito of Peace wrote on Mar 7, 2022, 16:09:
At this point, Russia is gonna Russia and it is painfully obvious that the West is only going to assist in oblique ways even though Putita has said the sanctions are considered declarations of war. You have old ladies clutching their pearls because Russia has nuclear ICBMs even though Russia admitted in 2018 that the AABMDS site in Romania could take out whatever Russia launched in the initial stages of flight. Which means that Russian ICBMs would never leave Russian airspace. Were they overstating to lull the West in to a false sense of security? Possibly. Is staying up all night worrying about it while doing nothing and watching a fascist slaughter thousands, perhaps even tens of thousands, of civilians including women and children a worthy position? I don't think so but I am not in charge.
So, might as well "lie back and think of England".
What about the Russian nuclear subs and strategic bombers? Is this Romanian anti ballistic missile system going to intercept all of them?
The West is hardly doing nothing: it's fully backing Ukraine with materiale, money, and intelligence, and has in a stroke destroyed the Russian economy and set in motion domestic political concerns, both popular and oligarchic, which pose a genuine threat to Putin's continuance in power. Putin is paying a catastrophic, possibly existential, strategic cost for his invasion.
I understand that it is painful to watch Kharkiv and Mariupol and Irpin get bombarded and raped by the Russian Army. It is even harder when the half-assed incompetent showing put on by the Russian military makes it clear they could easily been ground into paste by NATO. But escalating this war into a NATO v Russia conflict, particularly without any Article V grounds, would be interrupting an enemy while he is making a mistake. Those domestic political problems that may unseat Putin? Those go away the moment this becomes a NATO v Russia conflict. The unified western response? That too goes away without a clear Article V justification.
And yes, a NATO v Russia war is far, far more likely to go nuclear than the present Ukraine v Russia war. The price we could very well pay for enjoying the satisfaction of seeing the Russian army obliterated by NATO is a cornered Putin, facing the collapse of his military and imminent regime change, pressing that red button. And I say this without any desire to be mean, but if you think being worried about a strategic nuclear exchange is pearl clutching, then you are not being serious. Nuclear war is the most serious fucking thing humanity can contemplate, primarily because most of humanity won't be around to see the other side of it, Romanian anti-ballistic missile system or not. Shouting "damn the ICBMs" in this context, is pure gorilla chest thumping, a fear/anger-based animal dominance display, which is not going to carry you very far once the permanent end of human civilization has been set in motion.
Two weeks ago I was supportive of a (fantasy) US led NATO intervention because I thought A) Russia would achieve rapid but horrifically violent military success, B) the Western response would be weak and disunified, and C) Putin would achieve a great strategic benefit for minimal, sustainable cost, completely undermining the post-WWII rules based liberal international order. However, none of those things, except the horrific violence, came true. The Russian military has shown itself wrecked by corruption and incompetence, and its maintenance budget very clearly paid for the oligarch yachts that are now being seized. The Western response has literally instigated a financial crisis and great depression in Russia. Putin's continuance in power is now in doubt. The rules based liberal international order has held. Now we need to ensure that Ukraine can win in the long run, and this war doesn't escalate beyond its current scope.
There are far, far worse things than what we're seeing in Ukraine right now. It feels shocking and awful only because we have lived in a historical bubble for 75 years. But what we're seeing now, in the scope of the history of civilization, is normal. Most human societies have been ruled by autocracies. Most ruling autocrats have been men like Putin. Pointless wars of aggression have been the norm, not the exception. Living in a city under siege used to be something most people experienced in their lifetime. We are fortunate to have lived in a time where all of this feels shocking.
That's why it is imperative to preserve the rules based international order, which the events of the last two weeks largely have done. What remains is to ensure the war stays at its current level of escalation. Advocating for a NATO intervention merely rescues Putin from his mistake, and drastically raises the risk that civilization itself, and most of humanity, comes to a sudden and irreversible end.