Well, I was wrong about getting quick resolution tonight. The bright spot is that Biden is on track to win Arizona. That opens two strong pathways to 270+:
1) Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
2) Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nebraska-2, and Maine-2. (The latter two states award electors by winners of congressional district).
Unfortunately, the midwestern states are going to take several days, at least, to count ballots. Biden probably wins this once everything is counted, but the longer that count takes the more opportunities for lawsuits to stop vote counts/throw out ballots, more opportunities for violence between far right "militia" gangs and far left anarchists, and more opportunities for general ratfuckery/sowing of chaos by President Trump.
We're in for some turbulent and stressful, and potentially catastrophic, days ahead. In that sense, this election is turning out to be entirely in keeping with the rest of 2020.
edit: The NYT live forecast
for Georgia is currently forecasting a narrow Biden win there on the basis of the huge number of uncounted urban and suburban ballots in and around Atlanta. If I had to bet, Georgia narrowly goes for Trump. But if it goes Biden, then Trump's path to reelection is closed and we don't have to wait on Pennsylvania for a decision.This comment was edited on Nov 4, 2020, 00:34.