As promised, here are my picks for this year's Oscar race. Last year I correctly
guessed the top eight categories, but my annual bet with my father wound up
in a tie as I lost a couple of the lesser categories. As usual, I must say that
I do not suggest betting on the Oscars, as they are extremely tricky. Also,
nine out of ten times, the winners of Oscar pools are the people who guess randomly,
not those that do exhaustive research.
My picks do not include the animated and live action short categories as my
father and I don't include those in our bet.
Anyway, let's get down to it, shall we?
Best Picture: Gladiator
This was a tough call, but Gladiator won the producer's guild award for best
picture, and that's got a 70% accuracy rate when it comes to predicting the
Oscar. Some major critics have changed their predictions to Crouching Tiger
at the last minute, and two out of the three Times critics are predicting Traffic...but
I'm sticking with this one. It got the most nominations, it's gonna get a handful
of awards.
Best Director: Ang Lee
No contest. He won the DGA. Period.
Best Foreign Language Film: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
This is a lock. There was a major story last week about how the other films
in this category didn't even get proper distribution.
Best Actor: Ed Harris
I've changed my pick from Hanks to Harris. Why? My gut tells me Hanks won't
get it no matter how popular he is in Hollywood, and in my mind Crowe was never
in the running. That leaves Harris and Bardem, but of the two I think more voters
went to see Pollack than Before Night Falls. The Times has 3/3 picking Crowe
here...but I just don't see that happening. Of course, I think Michael Douglas
was absolutely robbed here, and not only deserved to be nominated, but deserved
to win for his work on Wonder Boys.
Best Actress: Julia Roberts
Ellen Burstyn is getting robbed here, but this isn't about who should win,
it's about who will win. Put your money against Roberts and you'll lose that
bet. Period.
Best Documentary Feature: Into the Arms of Strangers
This category has been an embarrassment for years, as the really great documentaries
never get nominated (Hoop Dreams, Crumb and American Movie were all snubbed).
Last year I goofed on this category because I didn't realize there was a Holocaust
movie nominated. I don't plan on making that mistake twice. This one's a Holocaust
movie about children. It's a lock.
Best Supporting Actor: Benicio Del Toro
Del Toro's got the buzz and the awards to back him up. Albert Finney won the
SAG, but that's only because Del Toro was nominated for actor and not
supporting actor (and he won, too).
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Hudson
In the last few years this award has consistently gone to the current "it"
girl (well, except for Judi Dench's baffling win for Shakespeare in Love). I
have no idea how Dench won the SAG award, since she's spoken out against Chocolat
and she's got barely any screen time in there. Hudson's been racking up the
awards, and she'll take this too.
Best Makeup: The Grinch
Yeah the movie's horrible, but the makeup is creative, you gotta give them
that. Of the three in this category, this seems to be the front runner.
Best Original Screenplay: You Can Count on Me
I went back and forth between this and Almost Famous all week...but I'm settling
on this one. Cameron Crowe has been snubbed before, and I see that happening
again. Had Almost Famous been nominated for Best Picture I'd pick that for this
category, but it was passed over completely. Plus this category tends to go
with the most deserving (The Usual Suspects, American Beauty).
Best Adapted Screenplay: Traffic
I'd love to see Wonder Boys get this, but since Traffic is a Best Picture contender,
it seems likely that it will take this too. I've seen some critics that have
actually picked O Brother Where Art Thou? (including Roger Ebert) but considering
that the Cohen brothers have admitted that they never actually read the damn
book I can't see that winning anything.
Best Visual Effects: The Perfect Storm
The effects in Gladiator were horrible. Hollow Man is a bigger contender than
that for this category, but I think the realism involved in The Perfect Storm
makes it the frontrunner.
Best Sound: Gladiator
Give Dreamworks credit, they know how to exploit DTS.
Best Sound Effects Editing: U-571
There are only two movies in this category, and this seemed to have a better
shot than Space Cowboys. It's literally a 50/50 guess though.
Best Film Editing: Traffic
Traffic is a really complicated story involving lots of people. I think it
really came together in the editing room. Gladiator's got a shot because of
the picture/editing pattern, but my money's on Traffic.
Best Original Score: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
This was a really, really tough category. Gladiator picked up a handful of
awards for its score, but then so did CTHD. After examining both (gotta love
Napster), I'm picking CTHD because it's simply a better score. Gladiator's soundtrack
is generic and pretty forgettable. CTHD's is pretty repetitive, but it's also
got the phenomenal cello work of Yo-Yo Ma. Gladiator's soundtrack has a healthy
future as the background music for trailers, but Zimmer has been passed over
for far better works.
Best Song: Bob Dylan, Wonder Boys
Not only is this the best song by far in this category, but it's Dylan's best
in years, and it was actually written for the movie - as in he watched a rough
cut of it and tried to capture its overall mood in the song. The Disney dynasty
has a great shot here, as does "A Love Before Time" the bilingual
pop song from CTHD, but I think this will be the one award Wonder Boys goes
home with, and rightly so.
Best Cinematography: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
CTHD has already picked up a lot of awards for its cinematography, plus there's
the director/cinematography pattern. Still, Gladiator has a really good shot
here, as does The Patriot, believe it or not.
Best Costume: Gladiator
Tough call here. Both CTHD and Quills have a great chance, but I think Dreamworks'
super promotion of Gladiator will pay off here.
Best Art/Set Direction: Gladiator
CTHD has a chance, but I don't see it winning here. Did you really walk out
of CTHD thinking about the art direction? That's about the only thing I liked
about Gladiator, so my money's on that here.
And those are my picks...this is a really tough year, so if you've got anything
riding on this...good luck.
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