Out of the Blue

Designer mutts cost big bucks (thanks Nicole) highlights the new mutt trend in dog ownership. Funny, I had never heard of a Golden Doodle before the other day when I met one, a puppy, which was quite the cute little thing. I find this development a bit interesting, here's how they explain it: "'Doodle' dogs' popularity stems from the combination of the poodle's non-shedding, allergy-friendly coat with the intelligence, temperament and size of Labradors, golden retrievers, schnauzers and Yorkshire terriers." The funny thing is, that it's tough to beat a poodle for any of those "other" traits, as they are quite intelligent and well tempered, and come in as wide a range of sizes as any dog out there. My own theory is that poodles have developed a feminine image, and there are many men who are not comfortable with this, but what do I know?

Play Time: When Bad Things Happen to Good Clients. Thanks BJB.
Links of the Day: Guide Horse Foundation. Who knew? Thanks Ant.
Stories of the Day: Wackiest Warning Labels Ever. Thanks Jim Hendrickson.
The World's Most Dangerous Geek.
Science!: Sweet Dreams Made by Machine. Get your ass to Mars.
Researchers and space enthusiasts see helium-3 as the perfect fuel source.
Study: Learning to Juggle Causes Changes in Brain.
Media of the Day: Chief on CNN. Thanks Bronco. Related blog.
Image of the Day: APOD 2004 January 16 - Martian Surface in Perspective. Thanks Enahs.
Follow-ups: USF scientists solve Chilean “blob” mystery. Thanks Enahs.
Help for Hubble: Officials Mull Donations, Russian Service Mission.
Thanks Mike Martinez.
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50 Replies. 3 pages. Viewing page 1.
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50.
 
slow news day
Jan 24, 2004, 14:37
50.
slow news day Jan 24, 2004, 14:37
Jan 24, 2004, 14:37
 
?

------
Leading the "Support our Arrow keys" movement!
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Diablo & Diablo 2 for the DS, it makes sense Blizzard!
49.
 
Re: Economics - Housing
Jan 23, 2004, 23:18
49.
Re: Economics - Housing Jan 23, 2004, 23:18
Jan 23, 2004, 23:18
 
Granted it's nothign concrete (but what is before the fact) but I've seen the same sort of indiciators floating around most of the other think tanks as well. It's certainly long past due, and while it may not happen this year, I'd be more surprised if it didn't than did.

I've been waiting for a few years now for the housing market in my area to drop back to reality let alone burst.

What has kept existing home prices growing at a 10-15% clip in my area is the large number of people earning two incomes. The area I live in trends higher on the income scale and when you add together two people that are earning in excess of $50K/year it is quite easy to understand how houses in my area that originally sold for $130K 5-6 years ago now go for $300K+.

I have a friend that owns his own real estate agency. He represented us when we purchased our current home. The housing market is silly in our area. Nice homes - 4 bedroom 2 car garage half an acre go for $250K and they sell in days or even hours after being placed on the market. Demand is so high and supply is so low.

Another thing adding to the shortfall of housing in my area (and many others I would assume) is the local governments reluctance to increase the capacity of their wastewater treatment facilities. You can't build a house unless you posses an EDU (equivilant dwelling unit). This EDU represents what an average house will dump into a treatment plant over a year. Plants are rated to a specific number of EDUs by the state gov't. Once you run out of EDUs no more building until the plant is expanded. Major expansions can take up to 5 years to plan, permit, and build.

This can retard the supply of new homes greatly further driving up housing prices.

On the national scale, look at what low interest rates have done to the cost of borrowing money. When my parents purchased their first house the going interest rate hovered near 13%. Ouch. In the past year 30Y fixed mortgages dropped under 5%. That is a ton more buying power.

When the rates start to creep up then the true strenght of the housing industry will be tested.

-TPFKAS2S
http://www.braglio.org
-TPFKAS2S
Avatar 10139
48.
 
Re: Economics
Jan 23, 2004, 23:02
48.
Re: Economics Jan 23, 2004, 23:02
Jan 23, 2004, 23:02
 
It's the having the job part that's the trick though, isn't it?

Yes, definitely, which makes it doubly fucked up that corporations are allowed to get away with what they are doing now. And apparently all of them are too stupid to realise that they are digging themselves further and further into a hole. Who's going to buy your products when nobody has a job anymore, corporate America?

With regards to those EPI stats, I don't think those take into account a very common occurence though. When a company fires employees, it fires either
A) those that it thinks it can do without, by making others take over their roles.
or
B) Those that have the highest salaries, with exception of management, since management ofcourse never gets fired.

Now, when that same company starts rehiring, it hires younger, and thus cheaper, people. For example, Company A fires Bob, age 55, with his 48.000 dollar salary, and a year later rehires Jennie, age 21, for the same position, only Jennie only makes 26.000 dollars. In the EPI report, this would show up as lower wages, and is thus being construed as higher paid jobs making way for lower paid jobs, right? But in the end, it's the same job.

Still, it's a pretty common occurence. After a big depression, it's always the low paying jobs that take a big boost for awhile, before it shifts back into middle and upper class jobs. Although, with the current information age going on, you'd think it wouldn't be as pronounced as say just before the Industrial Revolution.


Couple that with the billions lost on the death /inheritance taxes

I'm not quite sure how the baby boomers relate to lost revenue on death / inheritance taxes?

and the strain they'll put on social security and medicare with longer life expectency and things could will get very hairy in short order.

Yeah. Unfortunately, socialistic countries have already found a "solution" to this problem... They simply pretend it doesn't exist. To illustrate : over the past ten years poverty levels among the elderly (ie, 65 and over) in Holland had skyrocketed because they weren't given what they were due.

These people had worked their whole lives and paid monthly fees into the AOW (translates into General Elderly Funds), but were told by the socialist government that there was no money for them to be paid what they were due, hence they weren't going to get it.

Now, the sad thing about it is that these people deliberately put away a portion of their earnings every month to save for their retirement (through the government), AND they put money away by themselves, pension funds etc.
The government says "Well, we can't afford to pay you what we owe, so ehhh, here's a pittance," and these people get like, 400 dollars a month or something and are being told that the rest of their monthly money should just come out of their own savings.

There are other people, however, who during their lifetimes simply blew all their money away, refused to save any money at all, and THEY get about 1100 dollars per month from the government because they don't have anything else. It's socialism in its ultimate form. Reward the guilty, punish the innocent.

I sincerely hope that the US government doesn't decide that this is a very valid solution, and starts to mimic it, as most of the rest of Europe is doing... What are you referring to when you say that the Bush regime should to the right thing? (obviously, they need to make money available for the baby boomer generation, but where are they going to find it?)

Re the housing / refinance bubble, it's an interesting article, but I doubt it's so very gloomy. Housing prices would only sharply collapse if the bubble bursts AND at the same time the demand for housing completely evaporates, leading to the over-mortgaged home-owning crowd frantically trying to get rid of their houses before they go bankrupt on them, while nobody is interested in selling them. Massive supply, no demand, prices drop like hell.
On the other hand, if the demand stays where it's at when the bubble bursts, we might see prices stay the same for awhile, maybe even go down a little, but not to the extent that the entire market collapses, which is a far more likely scenario in my opinion.

One thing I found funny in the article : "Consumption comprises more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy. For the past three years, when the rest of the economy found itself in a slump, consumers never slowed the pace of their spending."

If consumers never slowed the pace of their spending, what the fuck have all the retailers been whining about for the last three years??

Creston







On the other hand, people who blew all their money away in their lifetimes

Avatar 15604
47.
 
Re: -----> Way Off topic <-------
Jan 23, 2004, 21:15
Enahs
 
47.
Re: -----> Way Off topic <------- Jan 23, 2004, 21:15
Jan 23, 2004, 21:15
 Enahs
 
Mmmmm, agenda crepes

*drooling like homer*
"agenda crepes"


damn E!

_____
Enahs
http://www.petitiononline.com/Grammar/
You are not signing this post, shut up about my grammar you can at least read this without straining your eyes, go proof read your mother! s{
I am free of all prejudice. I hate everyone equally.
- W. C. Fields
Avatar 15513
46.
 
Re: Economics
Jan 23, 2004, 20:59
46.
Re: Economics Jan 23, 2004, 20:59
Jan 23, 2004, 20:59
 
I see your new here,..

LOL! Nice one!

Yeah it sucks that the Cap is dead. Helmut Newton died today too.


"The ability to quote is a serviceable substitute for wit."
- W. Somerset Maugham
"And then, suddenly and without warning, it turned into a real-life case of hungry, hungry hippos."
- Stephen Colbert
45.
 
Re: -----> Way Off topic <-------
Jan 23, 2004, 20:28
45.
Re: -----> Way Off topic <------- Jan 23, 2004, 20:28
Jan 23, 2004, 20:28
 
some small personal agendas have creped in

Mmmmm, agenda crepes

44.
 
Re: Just get a mutt
Jan 23, 2004, 20:23
WarPig
 
44.
Re: Just get a mutt Jan 23, 2004, 20:23
Jan 23, 2004, 20:23
 WarPig
 
http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/news/print_wabc_012304_capkangaroo.html

The Captain has left the bridge...

Although I was saddened when Mr. Rogers died it didn't really touch a nerve because I never really watched his show. I was, however, a Capt. Kangaroo kid. In my opinion his was the greatest children's show of all time. He'll be missed.


-----------------------------------------
And remember, this is only my opinion - anyone who disagrees with it has every right to be wrong.
Avatar 1750
43.
 
Re: -----> Way Off topic <-------
Jan 23, 2004, 20:11
Enahs
 
43.
Re: -----> Way Off topic <------- Jan 23, 2004, 20:11
Jan 23, 2004, 20:11
 Enahs
 
Can you guys take the political commentary somewhere else please? The topic is about dogs.

Normally I am the one all for this, and interrupt in with some stupid joke. But this one I like.

It is not like the typically party XXXXXX is an ass and evil because blah blah blah. Yes, near the end some small personal agendas have creped in, which is fine. But the main body of the typed portions so far have just been fact, rules, history, ect. And so far everyone has respected the other person, not started calling names, and has had a nice civilized discussion, and I for one learned some stuff! I would much prefer learn this kind of crap from conversation, not from some lecture or a text book.


Good day at work, fun time at school, and peaceful political/economic discussion here in the forums. If it was not for this horrible cold keeping me down, I would be building a fall-out shelter right now!


_____
Enahs
http://www.petitiononline.com/Grammar/
You are not signing this post, shut up about my grammar you can at least read this without straining your eyes, go proof read your mother! s{
I am free of all prejudice. I hate everyone equally.
- W. C. Fields
Avatar 15513
42.
 
Re: Economics
Jan 23, 2004, 19:49
42.
Re: Economics Jan 23, 2004, 19:49
Jan 23, 2004, 19:49
 
Can you guys take the political commentary somewhere else please? The topic is about dogs.

Sling


I see your new here,..


As for the general job shift away from the west, the coined term is offshoring. My dissertation is about it and the effect of corporate brands in the consumers eyes in relation to this. Amusingly the companies dont seem to have looked into this because if they were getting the same results as im getting they should be pretty worried.

Having said that the whole job shift thing often forces people to create new jobs in new fields so its not always doom and gloom (witness coal labour intensive jobs in the west being replaced by service industry jobs).

The one thing that really gets to me though (and ive touched on this elsewhere today). Is that china, India etc do not acknowledge Patent law, which means that any western products are reverse enginered and then produced dirt cheap, effectivly locking us out of those markets.

And still the world does nothing about it,..


------
Leading the "Support our Arrow keys" movement!
This comment was edited on Jan 23, 19:51.
------
Diablo & Diablo 2 for the DS, it makes sense Blizzard!
41.
 
Re: Economics
Jan 23, 2004, 18:54
41.
Re: Economics Jan 23, 2004, 18:54
Jan 23, 2004, 18:54
 
Solid reply, Creston. Need to address a few things (I'm really tired and a bit punchy atm, so it may not all come out right).

Once they are secure again in their jobs etc, and know that Primary Needs (Food, Clothes, Shelter etc) are going to be taken care of for the next xx months, they will again start to buy luxury, or Secondary Items.

It's the having the job part that's the trick though, isn't it? Wage inequality is definitely on the rise, wages are being depressed and we're going to see more low wage jobs (see the EPI stats here http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots). The forecast is to see the national average drop from 43k to 36k (ouch).

I think reduced spending is simply a consequence of a depressed economy

Yes, that's one aspect of it for certain. Obviously the boomers aren't going to cease spending entirely, but what they're injecting back into won't be remotely as much (I wish I had the numbers, I've sen the studies on how much the economy will lose when they start retiring). Couple that with the billions lost on the death/inheritance taxes, and the strain they'll put on social security and medicare with longer life expectency and things could will get very hairy in short order. All of this amounts to an estimated shorfall of about an additional 5 trillion dollars within the next ten years. This become a rather worrisome solvency issue, and an unecessary one at that if the Bush regime would just do the right thing. Hell, even his own party is starting to openly rebel, as well they should.

The reason for that (I think) is that the need for houses hasn't diminished any, and quite frankly, I don't think that need is going to diminish any in the US either.

Give this a read (http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=21654). Granted it's nothign concrete (but what is before the fact) but I've seen the same sort of indiciators floating around most of the other think tanks as well. It's certainly long past due, and while it may not happen this year, I'd be more surprised if it didn't than did.



"The ability to quote is a serviceable substitute for wit."
- W. Somerset Maugham
"And then, suddenly and without warning, it turned into a real-life case of hungry, hungry hippos."
- Stephen Colbert
40.
 
Dangerous Geek
Jan 23, 2004, 18:45
40.
Dangerous Geek Jan 23, 2004, 18:45
Jan 23, 2004, 18:45
 
Very interesting story.

Waste sounds pretty sweet, I'm always looking for ways to share files with a few of my buddies (mostly self created stuff, actually), and ICQ / Messenger etc suck for file transfers. Does anyone know where to find it?

Creston


Avatar 15604
39.
 
Re: Chief
Jan 23, 2004, 18:35
39.
Re: Chief Jan 23, 2004, 18:35
Jan 23, 2004, 18:35
 
MY GOD! I always knew that Sam Walton fella was a crooked bastard!

You miss the point -- it's not that he's crooked... it's that he's driving all those mom-and-pop nuclear proliferators out of business.
Stephen "Blue" Heaslip
Blue's News Publisher, Editor-in-Chief, El Presidente for Life
Avatar 2
38.
 
-----> Way Off topic <-------
Jan 23, 2004, 18:22
38.
-----> Way Off topic <------- Jan 23, 2004, 18:22
Jan 23, 2004, 18:22
 
Can you guys take the political commentary somewhere else please? The topic is about dogs.

Sling

37.
 
Economics
Jan 23, 2004, 18:13
37.
Economics Jan 23, 2004, 18:13
Jan 23, 2004, 18:13
 
companies won't reinvest into the economy is they can get someone overseas to work for 1/4 of the price and not be punished for it

This, in my opinion, and admittedly I only majored in Economics for two years, is really going to hurt the US (and Europe for that matter) economy. And obviously boost the Indian and whatever other countries we're currently establishing all these call centers in. Since these wages don't only mean that an American (or European) is out of a job in favor of an Indian, but it also means that that salary is being spent OUTSIDE of your own domestic market.

I don't know any exact numbers for the American market, and for this current year, but halfway through the 90s a study was done in Holland that showed that every guilder was "spent" 18 times a year. In other words, it changed hands 18 times a year. We had a term for that in Economics, it's kinda hard to translate, it basically comes down to the Turn Around. The higher the Turn Around, the better it is for an economy, and VERY much better it is for a government. They also calculated that based on a year's turn around of one guilder, the government in Holland got 97 cents of that in taxes, after it was spent 18 times. You can see how a bigger turn around is much more beneficial for the government.

What is happening now, is that the salary goes outside of the United States (or Europe), presumably does get taxed as a wage, since the corporation is still here, but that's it. It only gets taxed once. It's highly doubtful that that dollar is going to come back into the US economy. This, in the long run, is going to cost the government a crapload of tax income, which is why I find it so amazing that no administration in the world (yep, not just the Bush administration, nobody in Europe is doing anything about it either) is doing something to prevent it.
It's all fine and dandy to help India become a better country, but not it it goes over my back...

The baby boomers have also bought everything they need, and spending will continue to decline

I don't agree with that Halsy. I think reduced spending is simply a consequence of a depressed economy, and if the economy shows signs of perking up, spending will increase again too. People will always need to eat, but if they worry about not having anything to eat next month, they won't buy themselves a new TV. Once they are secure again in their jobs etc, and know that Primary Needs (Food, Clothes, Shelter etc) are going to be taken care of for the next xx months, they will again start to buy luxury, or Secondary Items.

Also, you need to maintain your standard of living. It's not like you buy something once, and never buy it again. If you bought a DVD player, you'll get more DVDs for it. If you got a TV, eventually you'll switch to Digital Cable. etc etc. The Baby Boomers may have everything they need, but they'll need to replace it, they'll get something better, etc.
Combined with that is also the fact that new generations come up, and they want stuff too, which needs to be replaced etc etc.

I don't think spending will continue to decline just because "People already have everything". However, I can imagine the market getting so bad (primarily because of lack of trust in our economy due to Enron & Co and the Wall Street scandals, AND all these idiot corps that give their salaries to freaking India) that people will start hoarding their money, leading to less turn around, which further depresses the market.
But signs of this last Xmas season seemed to indicate that people were more willing to spend their money on Secondary items again. (Ie, not clothes etc)

The real estate/refinancing market will most likely collapse this year as well, which will tank the economy even further.

Hmmm, doubtful. The real estate market in Holland is insanely inflated, I'm talking about my parents buying a house in 1991 for 156.000 guilders, and selling it last year for 445.000 guilders. Buddy of mine had bought his apartment for 58.000, and sold it for nearly 300.000. That's an insanely inflated market, and since so many people have 2,3,500.000 dollar mortgages on houses that really aren't worth that money, there has been great concern that once that housing bubble bursts, half the country is going to go into bankruptcy.

However, this fear has existed for well over a decade now, and it still hasn't happened. The reason for that (I think) is that the need for houses hasn't diminished any, and quite frankly, I don't think that need is going to diminish any in the US either. With the need for houses remaining at a constant or even rising level, that bubble won't burst. Ofcourse, it WILL just get bigger, but hey. C'est la vie.


Last but certainly most important. Excessive debt like that can also lead us into a global depression. See this article about the IMF waring the US on this...

Well, it's not as if the US is alone in this matter. All nations in the European Union had agreed on a budget deficit of no more than 3%. However, Germany and France are consistently ignoring those figures, which is the primary cause of the current problems the EU members have with one another (well, that and their inability to form a constitution). However, the IMF hasn't said a peep to Germany and France about their continued budget shortfalls, and both those economies combined are quite a big chunk of the G7, and should certainly be cause for similar worries.

When it rains it pours, and the IMF's complaint seems more of a "let's bash the US since it's the hip thing to do" rather than any real worry.

Creston


Edit : F%^* that...Let's just loot, pillage, and burn!

Amen! Where did you live again, exactly, nin?

This comment was edited on Jan 23, 18:17.
Avatar 15604
36.
 
Re: Chief
Jan 23, 2004, 18:04
36.
Re: Chief Jan 23, 2004, 18:04
Jan 23, 2004, 18:04
 
The US still possesses the largest amount of WMDs on earth.
Yes, but unlike what you said about the Russians, our stockpiles are monitored, and constantly kept up to date and safe.
Terrorist dirty bombs are pretty much a non-issue as well (that's why N.E.S.T exists).
I wouldn't be so sure. A few well placed large munition (5,000lb+) bombs placed strategically around a city like New York or Chicago with some radioactive sand could be quite devastating to local populations. Even moreso if the radioactive material gets caught in wind patterns and drifts cross country. Hitler actually had a plan during WWII which involved air bursting a large warhead on top of a missile filled with radioactive sand over New York. It's that kind of attack that wouldn't be instantly devastating, but would probably inflict the same kind of damage over the centuries that Little Boy and Fat Man did to the Japanese.

But anyway, biological/chemical munitions are definately more worrisome. So grab your car keys, credit cards, children, and guns, and head to the Giga-store, to avoid the crowd on armageddon.

Avatar 13977
35.
 
Re: Chief
Jan 23, 2004, 17:48
Enahs
 
35.
Re: Chief Jan 23, 2004, 17:48
Jan 23, 2004, 17:48
 Enahs
 
Thank you Zathrus (Or are you Zatharus, oro Zatahres, Or Zathearus?) and Halsy, I knew I had the general idea right, and I knew a little more detail then what I said hence then “it is more complicated then that” but you both did provide some new info! I now remember why when it came to picking between American Government or Economics I chose government.

_____
Enahs
http://www.petitiononline.com/Grammar/
You are not signing this post, shut up about my grammar you can at least read this without straining your eyes, go proof read your mother! s{
I am free of all prejudice. I hate everyone equally.
- W. C. Fields
Avatar 15513
34.
 
The Butterfly Effect
Jan 23, 2004, 17:45
34.
The Butterfly Effect Jan 23, 2004, 17:45
Jan 23, 2004, 17:45
 
While I am a firm opponent of the absurd Chaos Theory, I think the movie actually looks pretty interesting. Then again, I've always been a sucker for time travel movies in which shit changes and paradoxes are created.

Has anyone seen it yet? Is anyone going to see it? If you've seen it, please let me know if it was any good or not.

Also, farewell Bennifer, we hardly knew you... <G>

Creston

Edit :
Russia currently has the largest stockpile of biological weapons in the world and most of it isn't monitored which is a big concern.

Careful there, Halsy. You're coming very close to blaming the Russian government for that, and that's a BIG no no in the politically correct world / UN. No leader in Europe will hear of any ill spoken against Russia, even though in my opinion, the Russian government should be right up there with Osama as some of the biggest terrorists in the world.

As for N.E.S.T, what the hell are they supposed to do if a dirty bomb goes off right on top of your head? It's not like they can actually CLEAN UP the radiation or anything. However, I will agree that biological warfare is far more scary and far more likely.

This comment was edited on Jan 23, 17:48.
Avatar 15604
33.
 
Re: Chief
Jan 23, 2004, 17:31
33.
Re: Chief Jan 23, 2004, 17:31
Jan 23, 2004, 17:31
 
I forgot to mention that don't forget that Bush's taxcuts only end up downshifting the tax burden the individual states, counties, municipalities, etc. Tax cut has a pavlovian effect on the general populous. They don't think about the real costs associated with those
cuts". It's akin to being handed a few hundred bucks while
they're looting your savings.

Give that a lookie loo... http://www.bushtax.com/

PS: The plutonium issue is such a non-issue it's ridiculous. The US still possesses the largest amount of WMDs on earth. NK, Iran, etc. wouldn't launch a nuke attack even if they had them. There's no gain in it. Terrorist dirty bombs are pretty much a non-issue as well (that's why N.E.S.T exists). If you're going to worry, biological warfare should be your major concern. It's infinitely cheaper to do, easier to do and easier to deliver.
Russia currently has the largest stockpile of biological weapons in the world and most of it isn't monitored which is a big concern.

Lots of good info there.

http://www.nti.org/e_research/e1_russia_BWabstracts.html




"The ability to quote is a serviceable substitute for wit."
- W. Somerset Maugham

This comment was edited on Jan 23, 17:33.
"And then, suddenly and without warning, it turned into a real-life case of hungry, hungry hippos."
- Stephen Colbert
32.
 
Re: Chief
Jan 23, 2004, 17:03
32.
Re: Chief Jan 23, 2004, 17:03
Jan 23, 2004, 17:03
 
What I don't get is, if we know where this stuff is and who's selling it, why don't we just buy it all up ourselves? Seems like a much simpler solution than waiting for someone like NK or Iran to get a hold of it and supporting another full scale invasion.

Avatar 13977
31.
 
Re: Chief
Jan 23, 2004, 16:59
nin
31.
Re: Chief Jan 23, 2004, 16:59
Jan 23, 2004, 16:59
nin
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