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Morning Consolidation

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78. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 15:14 Axis
 
I picked a side and make predictions based on factors, not figures -- I'm not bound to make predictions by your metrics which seem to be some arbitrary guesstimated figures.

Amazon 'failed' in your number metrics for 5 years or so, but has been wildly successful -- Tons of successful companies and products would 'fail' based on number crunching.

I gave compelling reasons why the Ouya will succeed. Numbers aren't the reason. Numbers are the bottom line and that can't be predicted by anyone.
 
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77. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 14:45 Verno
 
I don't really see any value in calling success without defining success in metrics that are measurable, too easy for people to weasel out of that later on. You ask others to pick a side but fail to provide any figures yourself so I don't feel obligated to indulge you. I don't feel the need to "take a side" really, it's a plastic box and not my favorite sports team or something. I'm not really invested one way or the other, more an amused spectator. I personally do not see it having a good market uptake but that's based on its current software lineup (relatively nonexistent) and its long term obstacles. If you want specific figures it would really depend on what their manufacturing/sellthrough capability is and that has yet to be determined which is why people are saying calling it a success is pretty silly at this point.

Anyways I'm off to the cottage so I'll check back on Monday, have a good one fellas.

This comment was edited on Jun 28, 2013, 14:52.
 
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76. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 13:57 Axis
 
Verno wrote on Jun 28, 2013, 12:29:
Nah it doesn't really seem to matter what anyone says, you just seem super invested in your position and don't want to hear otherwise. The emulators are open source, not the roms and really that's not what is going to drive them to "success" in the living room marketplace. Their business model isn't based on selling the box anyway, it's based on selling software through their specific storefront. When you can make some specific predictions that you can be held to then you can take credit, until then just whistling in the dark IMHO.

As for Ouya they face some pretty serious challenges as I noted below and I'm not going to dismiss them out of hand because OPEN SOURCE!!! or something.

It's easily true the other way around, you guys don't seem to care what anyone says you guys are vested in your "wait and see" neutrality. The difference is I'm taking a position, you are not.

I say it succeeds for very specific reasons:

1. It's a successful kickstarter that came through quickly.
2. It's open source.
3. It's focused on indie.
4. It's cheap.
5. It's highly moddable.

These are just the ones that you guys want to see. The other reasons are experience in the industry and a killer gut instinct, but those hold no weight outside of my own conviction.

So take a position, get off the sidelines -- Is the Ouya going to succeed or fail and list your reasons. I'm curious to see what you say and why, but I know you'll just stay neutral and throw stones at either spectrum, such is life.

 
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Axis
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75. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 12:29 Verno
 
Nah it doesn't really seem to matter what anyone says, you just seem super invested in your position and don't want to hear otherwise. The emulators are open source, not the roms and really that's not what is going to drive them to "success" in the living room marketplace. Their business model isn't based on selling the box anyway, it's based on selling software through their specific storefront. When you can make some specific predictions that you can be held to then you can take credit, until then just whistling in the dark IMHO.

As for Ouya they face some pretty serious challenges as I noted below and I'm not going to dismiss them out of hand because OPEN SOURCE!!! or something.

This comment was edited on Jun 28, 2013, 12:35.
 
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74. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 11:11 Axis
 
Sorry Verno, Open Source has EVERYTHING to do with it. Hell the emulations itself sells the box as-is. Add the modding, dev development right on the console, pretty much limitless where it can go for an inexpensive console.

And yes predictions are pointless, so is every comment from every person here in blues news.
 
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Axis
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73. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 10:44 Verno
 
I find these kinds of predictions pointless anyway, like Michael Pachter level fluff that doesn't mean anything. At least he will include some projections once in awhile though. Anyone can say X will be a success without quantifying what that means in hard figures. I don't think open source really has anything to do with it either, there aren't many open source games and the framework hasn't exactly given a lot back to Android.

The real problem that the Ouya faces is entrenched competitors in every aspect of their market place and a low barrier of entry for other competitors. There is already starting to be a glut of these little Android based devices and they're all competing for a very small market segment. They don't really have any worthwhile software on the platform either and that's going to dog them until they devote capital to first party studios, capital they likely don't have.
 
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72. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 09:25 Axis
 
Yes, it "is" a success in sales and reception. No need to apologize, least ya owned it.  
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Axis
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71. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 09:20 Beamer
 
Axis wrote on Jun 28, 2013, 09:17:
There's a statement, and a prediction. The statement is success in initial sales and reception, the prediction is success long term due to it's current success in sales and reception.

Funny people you newsers...

"Is" isn't a statement of prediction.

But fine, you predict it will be an overwhelming success. No one will tell you you can't make predictions. But don't use labels yet.

Also, apologies about mistaking "overwhelming" with "officially." I couldn't find the actual post on my phone and just recalled it was a definitive adjective beginning with an o.
 
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70. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 28, 2013, 09:17 Axis
 
There's a statement, and a prediction. The statement is success in initial sales and reception, the prediction is success long term due to it's current success in sales and reception.

Funny people you newsers...
 
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Axis
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69. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 17:43 Redmask
 
That right there is the sound of goalposts shifting folks.  
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68. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 17:42 Quboid
 
Axis wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 16:19:
See dude you just don't stop with the grand assumptions and contradictions.

Beamer wrote:
your term was "officially a success."

Ok, find the post where I said it was "officially a success" and I'll stop pointing out all your sillyness even when it's glaringly obvious like this one.

My term, the first post I made in this thread, was "Hotcakes". You know what hotcakes means right? Selling like hotcakes right now, with added bonus of overall good reviews. My "prediction" is long term enduring success that will give the console industry something to think about.

I trust my instincts and I'm not afraid to be wrong. Most others, peanut gallery. Such is life.

You describe it as "The ouya is a success" and "Ouya will be, is an overwhelming success" on this very page, both of which seem to me to say that you already consider it to be a success.

I don't know what constitutes 'officially'. I think that means you, not officially as in the inventors' expectations (I'm sure the people behind Ouya will tell you it's a success).

In fairness, 'officially' doesn't appear to be an exact term you've used, not sure where Beamer is getting that from. If he didn't mean that exact phrase, he should have made that clear.
 
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67. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 16:19 Axis
 
See dude you just don't stop with the grand assumptions and contradictions.

Beamer wrote:
your term was "officially a success."

Ok, find the post where I said it was "officially a success" and I'll stop pointing out all your sillyness even when it's glaringly obvious like this one.

My term, the first post I made in this thread, was "Hotcakes". You know what hotcakes means right? Selling like hotcakes right now, with added bonus of overall good reviews. My "prediction" is long term enduring success that will give the console industry something to think about.

I trust my instincts and I'm not afraid to be wrong. Most others, peanut gallery. Such is life.
 
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Axis
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66. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 15:54 Beamer
 
Axis wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 11:51:
Beamer you do realize I don't pay attention to most of what you say, you constantly assume and contradict and never own it.

However I stick to my March 28th prediction that the console will "Blow the shit up in the console market". Many people believe the console market is drying up, I believe it just lacks innovation and is out of touch with what most gamers these days want. I don't expect it to be AAAish, I expect it to be top Open Source ish.

I believe, as I've always believed, that open source is the future for many industries. I believe any passionate open source project will massively succeed as it has in the past not only with software, but hardware like servers, tablets, phones, routers, etc.

I'm not claiming anything yet outside the scope of what I've already stated, but you'll need to re-read what I've stated and set your assumptions and chest thumping aside.

And I certainly did buy another one, Gamestop had more stock this morning. Still there if you want one. I suggest you save it for your Xbone.

I'm not chest-thumping. You're saying it's already a success.
I'm saying you cannot claim success on it selling out day 1. Sorry. You need more to go on than that.

I'm not saying it won't be. I'm saying you're lighting your fireworks early. You weren't even saying "on its way to a success," your term was "officially a success."
 
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65. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 11:51 Axis
 
Beamer you do realize I don't pay attention to most of what you say, you constantly assume and contradict and never own it.

However I stick to my March 28th prediction that the console will "Blow the shit up in the console market". Many people believe the console market is drying up, I believe it just lacks innovation and is out of touch with what most gamers these days want. I don't expect it to be AAAish, I expect it to be top Open Source ish.

I believe, as I've always believed, that open source is the future for many industries. I believe any passionate open source project will massively succeed as it has in the past not only with software, but hardware like servers, tablets, phones, routers, etc.

I'm not claiming anything yet outside the scope of what I've already stated, but you'll need to re-read what I've stated and set your assumptions and chest thumping aside.

And I certainly did buy another one, Gamestop had more stock this morning. Still there if you want one. I suggest you save it for your Xbone.
 
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Axis
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64. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 09:28 Beamer
 
Here's how you defined success:
Axis wrote on Mar 28, 2013, 20:33:
Do not doubt what the Ouya is going to do... it's going to blow the shit up in the console market -- bigtime.

There's a shitton of indie/linux guys who will propel this through the roof if it even comes close to delivering.

Still lotta nubs out there still think that beefy hardware is key - not true at all. 99% AAA titles are shit, only innovation is coming from indies. People's money is tight and all the cards could just fall perfectly...


Now you're claiming that it's successful when, again, that first shipment may have been in the ballpark of 5000-10000 units.
 
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63. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 09:26 Beamer
 
Axis wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 08:39:
Take it how you like, prediction, proof, whatever -- I state and have stated that the Ouya will be, is an overwhelming success.

I just picked up another one.

You haven't "picked up another one," but that sounds a bit Cutter-ish.

It was a successful Kickstarter project, sure. It brought in an enormous amount of donations and it shipped to consumers. Big Kickstarter success.

But is it a successful product? Is it living up to the kind of success you've predicted (and, recall, you predicted it would be a dominant player in the next console generation.)

"Ouya sells out of first shipment - sales data unknown" is not proof of your claims. You're doing a victory lap after hitting a home run in the first inning.
 
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62. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 09:16 Axis
 
Quboid wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 09:12:
Axis wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 09:08:
The ouya is a success because it is an open source game console kickstarter that got released and with such little fanfare has enough early adopters -- that's my metric because that's the way things are with Open Source -- it only gets better from here, mark my word.


So establishing its self as a niche product constitutes success? That's fair enough considering it's KS roots.

I don't think open source equals inevitable improvement. It's somewhat likely with software (although plenty of OS software projects get abandoned) but when hardware comes into it, the project is less likely to be something a few dedicated geeks can work on in their spare time. Hardware costs money and getting a product line up and running means showing that you know your arse from your elbow.

About four years ago there were no android tablets. Different beast, same dna.
 
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Axis
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61. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 09:16 Verno
 
Quboid wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 09:12:
I don't think open source equals inevitable improvement. It's somewhat likely with software (although plenty of OS software projects get abandoned) but when hardware comes into it, the project is less likely to be something a few dedicated geeks can work on in their spare time. Hardware costs money and getting a product line up and running means showing that you know your arse from your elbow.

Exactly, doesn't really make any sense, the PS4 is based on FreeBSD but it's not really an open source project anymore than the Ouya is. I'm not sure how the hardware qualifies as "open source" either. Besides there are thousands of failed open source projects, it's not a magical cure all or something.

Open source games haven't really impressed much so far anyway and gaming is the primary purpose of the product.
 
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60. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 09:13 InBlack
 
Axis wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 09:08:
The ouya is a success because it is an open source game console kickstarter that got released and with such little fanfare has enough early adopters -- that's my metric because that's the way things are with Open Source -- it only gets better from here, mark my word.


I will agree with the very last part of this statement. But only for people who game on nothing else already. How many people will be playing by the time the Xbone and PS4 come around? How many Ouya exclusive games will people be getting, and who will make them? What about the Valve console? There are many questions here, least of all the one about how many people will be using it as an expensive paper weight a month from now after the novelty wears off??

This comment was edited on Jun 27, 2013, 09:28.
 
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59. Re: Morning Consolidation Jun 27, 2013, 09:12 Quboid
 
Axis wrote on Jun 27, 2013, 09:08:
The ouya is a success because it is an open source game console kickstarter that got released and with such little fanfare has enough early adopters -- that's my metric because that's the way things are with Open Source -- it only gets better from here, mark my word.


So establishing its self as a niche product constitutes success? That's fair enough considering it's KS roots. Expecting it to outsell the PS3/PS4/Xbox360 isn't realistic (but it should outsell the Xbone about 10 to 1! )

I don't think open source equals inevitable improvement. It's somewhat likely with software (although plenty of OS software projects get abandoned) but when hardware comes into it, the project is less likely to be something a few dedicated geeks can work on in their spare time. Hardware costs money and getting a product line up and running means showing that you know your arse from your elbow.
 
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