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Out of the Blue

Well today is Election Day here in the U.S., our annual opportunity to practice democracy (insert joke here about continuing to practice until we get it right). Here's hoping all those who are registered get out and vote, and that the process proceeds smoothly.

Smooth Links: Thanks Ant and Acleacius.
Play: Obama vs Romney Boxing Match
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Science: Experiencing math anxiety may be like the experience of physical pain.
Broken Heart Syndrome: Now doctors say you really CAN die from a sudden shock to the system.
New dinosaur named after Sauron from Lord of the Rings. Or Blue's forum poster. Thanks nin.
Media: The Brooklyn Hipster.
Adam Savage Builds Patton Oswalt's Halloween Costume.
How Videos Go Viral.

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236 Replies. 12 pages. Viewing page 12.
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16. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 11:14 sauron
 
PHJF wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 11:05:
Pray tell, enlighten us with your evidence of 538's apparently obvious bias. The methodology is spelled out in plain English on the site. All the numbers are ordered and explained. Or maybe you just saw "New York Times" and cried liberal because you're incapable of forming an opinion on your own.

I think he's just saying that the quality of the data coming out of the algorithm depends on the quality of the polling data that goes into it. Some polls tend to lean left (PPP), others tend to go right (Gallup).

Good article yesterday though that made the point that the large number of polls in the final week of the campaign add greatly to the statistical power of analyses that use all the data. Right now, there are only two ways that 538 could be wrong. Either the algorithm is inaccurate, or the majority of polling data are systematically biased towards Obama (for whatever reason).
 
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Kittens!
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15. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 11:08 Ratty
 
nin wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:36:
I've been reading http://electoral-vote.com/ since the 04 election, and he seems to nail it, most of the time.
Yeah, that's a good site. I remember it from last time around. I took a screenshot so I can see how it did tomorrow morning. 538 is so far off from what most everyone else is saying and Nate Silver has become so famous/infamous (depending) this time around I'm really really looking forward to seeing how close he is this time. He's almost smug in his certainty, so he'll either be crowned as king or run out of town about 12 hours from now. I'll be watching the Daily Show and Colbert live coverage tonight. Kind of sad that's the only "news" I can stand to watch nowdays.

 
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14. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 11:05 PHJF
 
Pray tell, enlighten us with your evidence of 538's apparently obvious bias. The methodology is spelled out in plain English on the site. All the numbers are ordered and explained. Or maybe you just saw "New York Times" and cried liberal because you're incapable of forming an opinion on your own.  
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13. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:46 Jeraxle
 
PHJF wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:42:
538 was picked up by NYT in 2010. The site has been around since 2008. It's math, it doesn't have a fucking bias.

It does when it doesn't take all polls into account. By your use of profanity, I assume I struck a nerve.. My apologies for expressing my opinion and a statement of fact.
 
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12. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:44 Jeraxle
 
sauron wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:36:

And yes, I won the last election in Mordor when my opponent cut his own head off while shaving. An unfortunate accident.

I hate it when that happens. =)
 
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11. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:42 PHJF
 
538 was picked up by NYT in 2010. The site has been around since 2008. It's math, it doesn't have a fucking bias.  
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10. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:38 Slick
 
Morbo congratulates earth president Nixon. May death come swiftly to his enemies.  
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9. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:36 sauron
 
Jeraxle wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:32:
sauron wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:20:
Unbiased political statistics analysis done with hard math - very interesting. Honestly, it really is!

As much as I hate tempting the Lord of Mordor, I find it very difficult to believe anything published at the NY Times as "Unbiased". This day and age, you'll never find a "news outlet" that isn't biased in some way. Especially seeing as though 538 is a blog. I like what he's doing with his blog, but unfortunately, I can't believe that his stats are based in reality due to lack of trust in his sources.

/shrug

Yes, there is that, although he does claim that the engine is completely unbiased. I guess we'll find out later tonight.

And yes, I won the last election in Mordor when my opponent cut his own head off while shaving. An unfortunate accident.
 
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8. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:36 nin
 
sauron wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:20:
nin wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 09:59:
Voted Friday. Now I get to sit back and watch the fireworks. And being a glutton for punishment, I'm sure I'll be following it all night.


I'm unable to vote (foreign passport - Mordor; also, the Lidless Eye has no hands). However, Ive been absolutely glued to the Five Thirty-Eight page for weeks:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Unbiased political statistics analysis done with hard math - very interesting. Honestly, it really is!

I'm not sure if I believe those numbers or not. I think because he seems farther away than a few of the other polls. But I have been following it the past few days...

Guess we'll find out tonight. (Assuming it's resolved) No matter who "wins" half the country is going to be pissed tomorrow.

edit: I've been reading http://electoral-vote.com/ since the 04 election, and he seems to nail it, most of the time.


 
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7. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:35 sauron
 
PHJF wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:27:
538 has Obama at 90% to win Ohio, despite major media endlessly clamoring to the contrary. Really, something needs to be done about the state of news in this country. Shit is beyond ridiculous.

Not only in this country. The BBC is just as bad.
 
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Kittens!
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6. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:33 Alamar
 
Congratulations on your re-election : )

-Alamar
 
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5. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:32 Jeraxle
 
sauron wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 10:20:
Unbiased political statistics analysis done with hard math - very interesting. Honestly, it really is!

As much as I hate tempting the Lord of Mordor, I find it very difficult to believe anything published at the NY Times as "Unbiased". This day and age, you'll never find a "news outlet" that isn't biased in some way. Especially seeing as though 538 is a blog. I like what he's doing with his blog, but unfortunately, I can't believe that his stats are based in reality due to lack of trust in his sources.

/shrug
 
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4. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:27 PHJF
 
538 has Obama at 90% to win Ohio, despite major media endlessly clamoring to the contrary. Really, something needs to be done about the state of news in this country. Shit is beyond ridiculous.  
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3. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:20 sauron
 
nin wrote on Nov 6, 2012, 09:59:
Voted Friday. Now I get to sit back and watch the fireworks. And being a glutton for punishment, I'm sure I'll be following it all night.


I'm unable to vote (foreign passport - Mordor; also, the Lidless Eye has no hands). However, Ive been absolutely glued to the Five Thirty-Eight page for weeks:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Unbiased political statistics analysis done with hard math - very interesting. Honestly, it really is!
 
Avatar 8692
 
Kittens!
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2. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 10:08 Cutter
 
Kang: The politics of failure have failed. We need to make them work again. Tomorrow, when you are sealed in the voting cubicle, vote for me, Senator Ka... Bob Dole.
[applause]

Kodos: I am looking forward to an orderly election tomorrow, which will
eliminate the need for a violent blood bath.
[applause]
 
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"The South will boogie again!" - Disco Stu
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1. Re: Out of the Blue Nov 6, 2012, 09:59 nin
 

Voted Friday. Now I get to sit back and watch the fireworks. And being a glutton for punishment, I'm sure I'll be following it all night.

 
http://www.nin.com/pub/tension/
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