Palin isn't even on the radar anymore. You're 3+ years behind the times and that's why Obama will lose.
Here's what it comes down to: money. People thought Obama was going to give them free money in 2008- that turned out not to be true unless you're a banker or a select political ally.
The 99 weeks of unemployment has run out for most people on it and since Republicans refuse to finance their own defeat those folks will be voting for Romney because they need jobs again.
Retirees will vote for Romney mostly because Obama took medicare money away from them and didn't raise their social security when the price of food and gas keeps going up.
People who make money by working in the private sector will vote for Romney by 80% or more- they outnumber government workers by about 5 to 1. Union workers in the private sector are becoming scarce because they've been fired in favor of older union workers and their pensions.
All that leaves Obama with are people that are permanently in the welfare state who don't turn out to vote very much, public employees, people living off of student loans who are unhappy with Obama and won't turn out to vote and the vast majority of the approximately 10% of undead Americans who mostly reside in states that Obama would carry anyway.
Obama is toast. But so are we the people- Romney already admitted that he won't even be able to balance he budget for 8-10 years; in real speak that means no end in sight.
But hey, I'll take Romeny as CIC during a national crisis over "blow up Americans with drones" Obama any day. Maybe people will finally be ready for Rand Paul or Herman Cain in 2016.