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Real Name Simply Monk   
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Nickname SimplyMonk
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ICQ 10734308
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Homepage http://
Signed On Aug 23, 2010, 19:35
Total Comments 451 (Amateur)
User ID 55902
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
55. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 18:14 SimplyMonk
 
Dades wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 17:40:
Bubbles can burst.

Maybe this is just semantics, but that isn't a "bubble bursting" to me. Guitar Hero's sales steadily declined to the point where it just didn't make sense to continue with Guitar Hero 6 (or whatever they ended at). That was a reasonable cost-value judgement. The 3DS is struggles for a number of reason, the big one being everyone already owns some version of the DS and 3D isn't really worth the upgrade... but that isn't really a bubble.

Bubble bursting to me is on the scale of the the Dot-Com or Real Estate bubbles. Something where the industry reached such an insane unsustainable level that the only recourse was to reduce the industry to a fraction of its former size in a short of amount of time with most existing assets becoming toxic and doors being shuttered by the vast majority of the industries businesses. A massive event that doesn't leave room for correction.

Your examples in my opinion weren't bubbles bursting but simply market corrections. The products themselves ran a little high for a period of time, but the market corrected itself and the impact of their loss in the long run was rather minor to the industry as a whole. More of a fad than a bubble as at the time the products were something of value, they just over saturated the market or got played out, replaced by something new and shiny.

I'm willing to accept that the CoD/FPS mania will subside, but that doesn't mean the DLC/Alternate Revenue methods that the big AAA titles employ or AAA titles in general will no longer be around.

This comment was edited on Jul 11, 2012, 18:24.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
50. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 17:13 SimplyMonk
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 16:27:
Well, the difference in our opinions is that I believe the crash will happen because the industry didn't move to where it needed and moved too fast to where it needed not.

Yes. I think we are just going to have to agree to disagree. It doesn't make me happy to say it, but I think the AAA Video Game Titles are going to continue to move in a similar direct to AAA Movies and people will continue to buy it the same way they went to see "Transformers 3" and paid an outrageous sum for a 3D movie ticket, $10 popcorn and will then buy the Blue-Ray 3D DvD with 20 Extras of Transformers 1-3 for $80.

I feel if your vision of the consumer and the industry were true, Call of Duty 3 and Black Ops wouldn't of sold half as well. But like we've both said, that is a matter of opinion and my computer science degree doesn't help my case much in matters of economics or sociology.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
44. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 15:53 SimplyMonk
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 15:45:
Did you get to read the other 5-6 pieces about the industry?

Yeah. I'll give the other articles a read later, but your are correct on gaming journalism, but even that could be said for today's journalism as a whole. Too much opinion thrown in to make a story more "interesting" and too much of the author trying to bend it to their view.

From reading that one article though, I didn't get the impression that they though some big crash was going to happen. What I got from it is basically that the industry needs to change as the costs are beginning to outweigh the profits and growth is starting to slow. But we knew that already. The industry knows that already. Why do we see such a big push for DLC? Because they need to keep making money and that is a solid way to do it and you are only going to see more of it in different shapes and forms.

The only way it is going to crash is if you see the industry try to move too fast in the wrong direction or resist change completely like some companies have, but I see no evidence of that.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
40. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 15:29 SimplyMonk
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 15:07:
So yeah, it is an article full of bias, it's a bloody opinion piece.

I'll ignore the fact that you linked the opinion article when making an argument, but I did read the Verge article and didn't find it much better in terms of objectivity. They did at least have a sizable data to back up their statements, but in the end they are still building an opinion based model and their comparisons to the movie industry are accurate in some respects, but don't go far enough.

Filmmakers can save money by cutting scenes and getting creative with locations, but by-and-large, the cost of making of a movie is relatively fixed.

That is a horrible inaccurate statement, but ignoring that, it is at the end of the article he isn't saying the AAA market is going to die. He is saying it will continue to push for more profits via DLC/Cash-Shops and you'll be paying more out of pocket for it.

Well, of course you are. With CGI, AAA movies started a ton more to make. Did people stop making AAA films? No. They raised ticket prices. They expanded their markets. They started selling "extended-cuts" or "behind-the-scenes" crap to raise DVD prices. They started selling bundles. They found ways to take more of your money that really didn't cost them much.

AAA video games will do the exact same thing and too be honest... I don't really see what is wrong with that. Its a business and an art form. Just like film. The Verge article is good to compare the VG Industry to the Film Industry, but it isn't saying a bubble is going to burst here. It is just saying things are going to change.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
35. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 15:04 SimplyMonk
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 14:56:
These guys which probably know a lot more about gaming and finances than you ever could, are wrong?

That article is full of bias and guesses about industry trends. Even the article it references to is filled with opinion and faulty data.

Regardless, the gaming industry is still growing hand-over-foot and getting bigger each year, it may just get to a point where it swallows up the mainstream AAA players and we'll just get stuck with a lot of cool indie titles. A gamer can dream.

Yeah. Way to stay objective there, buddy. That's good journalism.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
32. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 14:58 SimplyMonk
 
Beamer wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 14:46:
Anyone that thinks AAA games will cease to exist, or that people will stop making millions on them, is nuts. Flat out nuts.

Have to agree here. The industry may continue to shrink and we may even lose a platform, but to think that AAA games will suddenly disappear is crazy without some unpredictable event.

Something I think is more probable is publisher start to sell AAA titles at a loss on release, but start making real profits with DLC/episodic content/cash shops. Something on a level greater than what they've been doing today. But that would require IPs and game play that fits that model well.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
22. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 13:59 SimplyMonk
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 13:08:
Though I too wouldn't mind Valve owning Actvision. It sure beats MS owning Activision that's for sure.

Never going to happen. They don't want the IPs and the company would never fit in Valve's corporate culture. Blizzard might, but even that would be a stretch as Blizzard also has their own unique policies.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
20. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 13:49 SimplyMonk
 
theyarecomingforyou wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 13:04:
...the first thing they'd do would be to kill the PC versions of all games.

Take this with a grain of salt, but MS is doing some heavy background work with Windows 8 to XBL to make the Next XBX and PC space almost identical in terms of platform integration. Does that mean that they are going to focus on the PC for game development? Most likely not, but they say they are making it so developing for the PC and the 360 are almost the exact same. In addition, I doubt they would take a multi-platform IP that sells record numbers and force it into just the 360. Bad PR to say the least. PC release as well would be a minimum.

This comment was edited on Jul 11, 2012, 14:00.
 
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News Comments > Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers
9. Re: Vivendi Seeking Activision Buyers Jul 11, 2012, 12:20 SimplyMonk
 
Time Warner picking up Acti-Blizz I don't think would change the playing field all that much. Time Warner has been making incremental studio purchases for awhile and their success has been decent with the whole Batman line. Nothing stellar. Picking up Acti-Blizz would make them a major player obviously.

Microsoft picking up Acti-Blizz has a lot more interesting potential. Although they might remain their own distinct element for a couple of years and just be business as usual, the possibilities that could arise from them acquiring Acti-Blizz's IPs are endless. Exclusivity is always in question but I would be curious to see if B.Net got merged with XBL in some fashion or a new spawn service would be born.

Not saying any of this would be better or worst. Just interesting.
 
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News Comments > Diablo III Patched
5. Re: Diablo III Patched Jul 10, 2012, 14:34 SimplyMonk
 
Hornet303 wrote on Jul 10, 2012, 14:30:
Anyway, it just bums me out that the PC scene is so angry all the time. Its like seeing a spokesman for a certain group on TV representing your group. I just keep saying to myself "we're not all that bad, some people are content".

That is a statement for the human race in general.
 
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News Comments > Deus Ex: Human Revolution Film Plans
18. Re: Deus Ex: Human Revolution Film Plans Jul 10, 2012, 13:45 SimplyMonk
 
Raptor wrote on Jul 10, 2012, 13:12:
John Travolta

Ugh. Please. No. We don't need another sci-fi flick turned into a Scientology recruitment movie. I realize he wouldn't have the creative influence he had in Battlefield Earth because the source isn't L. Ron Hubbard material, but still... Travolta in anything sci-fi leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Raptor wrote on Jul 10, 2012, 13:12:
Dx3 was more futuristic than Dx1, yet is supposed to have happened before, so go figure.

I think that is more due to the fact that between DX1 and DX3 our understanding and concepts of what the future could (or wish would) entail has evolved alongside our understanding of technology. Plus, DX3 was done by Square who have a unique flair for sci-fi tech so that most likely bumped it up a notch as well.
 
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News Comments > Deus Ex: Human Revolution Film Plans
16. Re: Deus Ex: Human Revolution Film Plans Jul 10, 2012, 13:00 SimplyMonk
 
J wrote on Jul 10, 2012, 11:18:
I wonder how many films actually utilised that ability?

The only movie I've ever known to actually have different theaters get different endings was "Clue". Sadly, I never got to see the movie in the theatres and all the endings were included at the end of the video release, but the concept has always been awesome to me as well.

I'm always skeptical of video games movies and after the Final Fantasy movie I have almost no faith in Square to even do good with their own IPs, but that being said... Square has always seemed to me to be a video game company that wants to be a movie company. I would love to see this as being another shot at them doing everything in-house, but Spirits Within and the loses they suffered from it might make that impossible.

Who knows. Maybe they will get someone decent?
 
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News Comments > Project Copernicus Trailer
15. Re: Project Copernicus Trailer Jul 10, 2012, 11:18 SimplyMonk
 
Beamer wrote on Jul 10, 2012, 11:13:
Plus the update policy. If there ends up a hack in an MMO it does damage super quickly and needs to be fixed very rapidly. Microsoft takes 2 weeks to certify patches. It doesn't work.

Yes. Very true. Knew I was forgetting something. Not being able to control your patch cycles for an MMO and having to dish out cash to a third part every time you patch is absolutely a deal breaker to any company.

I know Diablo 3 is still playing around with the idea of a console version, but that right there is most likely a big concern for them. Might of been another source of incentive for them to do so much server side as then Blizzard could tweak game play without having to go through Microsoft until the needed to update tool-tips.
 
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News Comments > Project Copernicus Trailer
13. Re: Project Copernicus Trailer Jul 10, 2012, 11:09 SimplyMonk
 
The Half Elf wrote on Jul 9, 2012, 22:43:
...and last time I checked the only MMO the 360 has is Phantasy Star Online.

I'm not sure if it is still playable on the 360, but Final Fantasy XI was actually the first MMO to be on the 360 and it was launched I think only a few months after the 360 itself launched. Like with Shadowrun being able to play with PC players, however, I think Microsoft had to cut a lot of holes in their XBL network and policies in order to get that done.

I've had some conversations with MMO developers and if I remember correctly, a lot of the reason they don't look to consoles for release is that the consoles have a slightly "walled garden" aspect to their online networks and Microsoft's infrastructure in particular doesn't take kindly to heavy server side code that MMOs require. That and the typical console user usually isn't one to not only pay for XBL, but also pay an additional fee on top of that for their MMO.

Tera had plans initially to be released on the 360. I'm curious if they are going to follow through on them or if Microsoft policies shut that down. FFXIV was PS3 destined as well till the "it is a horrible game so let's remake it" debacle. I'm less familiar with the problems in running an MMO on the PSN however.

Oh. Apparently The Secret World is also supposed to be released on the 360. Think that got nixed as well though.

This comment was edited on Jul 10, 2012, 11:14.
 
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News Comments > Out of the Blue
19. Re: Out of the Blue Jul 4, 2012, 01:19 SimplyMonk
 
xXBatmanXx wrote on Jul 3, 2012, 21:35:
Beckham Kicks Ball At "Injured" Player. Provided instant cure.

See how fast he got up? Soccer is lame as hell. So many drama queens.

I love GIFs like this so much.
 
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News Comments > EU to Allow Digital Software Resales?
81. Re: EU to Allow Digital Software Resales? Jul 3, 2012, 23:00 SimplyMonk
 
Jerykk wrote on Jul 3, 2012, 22:47:
Making longer, deeper and more replayable single-player games? Not so much.

Yeah. Well, I can dream. I suppose my JRPG fetish may of skewed my opinion a bit.
 
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News Comments > EU to Allow Digital Software Resales?
79. Re: EU to Allow Digital Software Resales? Jul 3, 2012, 22:35 SimplyMonk
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Jul 3, 2012, 22:19:
So, you do or don't agree with this?

Whether a used game market should or should not exist (you should be able to sell/gift your game or not) for digital video games isn't so much a question of whether it is "right" or "wrong", because that is bullshit in my opinion.

The question should be if you have a used digital game market, will you like how the industry adjusts to maximize profits in that market? Or you would prefer that things stay the way they are? I can promise you, though, you switch to allowing a digital used game market and the industry will change. For the better or worst.... who knows. The concept might just kill digital games entirely since a digital used game market would be thousands of times more responsive than a physical used market which has to deal with the usual hindrances of retail sales. Make one wrong move as a publisher and there is your entire digital inventory thrown into the used market, killing all new sales in a manner of minutes.


I like change for change's sake though. So sure. I agree with you. Let's mix this shit up!
 
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News Comments > EU to Allow Digital Software Resales?
77. Re: EU to Allow Digital Software Resales? Jul 3, 2012, 22:26 SimplyMonk
 
The used video game market, in my opinion, only really hinders games that have very low replay-ability. If a game is amazing and you just want to play it again and again, the used game market for the game is non-existent or will only start to grow so late into the product's life cycle that it won't event matter. If a game only takes you two hours to beat and there is really no reason to keep it after that, the use game market will decimate that title.

Games with high replay-ability and extensive, rewarding content will barely even notice that a used game market exists. Short games with low replay-ability will have a very steep decline in sales after the initial release.

Now, of course, there are always exceptions to everything. If a game is very niche and a lot of people pick it up at release, but don't care for it, the title will have a spike in used sales. If a title has a low print run and the main audience happens to be hoarders (like myself), then it will have a small used market.

What this means is that a healthy used market will tend to push publishers into developing either game's with episodic content or games with very high replay-ability, multiplayer or long, rewarding campaigns that the buyer wants to hold onto. Short games, even good ones, would suffer greatly.

Who really knows though. The market is a fickle place that sometimes surprises you. All publishers understand, I believe, is that in no scenario does the used game market benefit them or their bottom line. You might be able to argue that the existence of the market makes it easier for user's to cough up $60 for a title, but that is a delicate balancing act and can go either way in the long run.
 
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News Comments > EU to Allow Digital Software Resales?
75. Re: EU to Allow Digital Software Resales? Jul 3, 2012, 22:09 SimplyMonk
 
^Drag0n^ wrote on Jul 3, 2012, 19:46:
That is actually a horribly flawed argument.

Perhaps I attacked the problem in the wrong way and used too confusing of examples. I was merely trying to point out that just because you can sell bookends in the used market and the bookend industry doesn't suffer for it does not mean the same holds true for all industries, especially media which has a completely different set of design and manufacturing costs/processes.

That was my entire point. I was not trying to say one way or the other that the media used market was good or bad. Just that bookends aren't video games so comparing the two is, at the very root, is flawed logic.

Mr. Tact wrote on Jul 3, 2012, 20:15:
Ok, thank you. Now I understand where the confusion is. Apparently you missed it earlier when I said.

Ugh. I didn't. I was just trying to say that you can't compare the two industries. Sorry. I choose bad examples to get my point across.
 
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News Comments > EU to Allow Digital Software Resales?
59. Re: EU to Allow Digital Software Resales? Jul 3, 2012, 19:31 SimplyMonk
 
Mr. Tact wrote on Jul 3, 2012, 18:47:
Are you saying if I am able/allowed to resell my software it makes the software business no longer viable?

I was merely trying to bring to light that you can't compare manufactured goods and the economics that surround them to software and their economics because that are simply two different types of products. A Rolls-Royce has far different regulations and manufacturing costs/concerns than making toothpicks.

Just because Product A is composed of Atoms and Product B is composed of Atoms, doesn't mean that the policies and economics surrounding the two products are interchangeable.

Let me try a simple example. When you buy a Bookend, the manufacturer makes a profit on your purchase. It cost them $1 to make, you bought it for $5. You are free to do whatever the fuck you want with it now because the maker of the bookend got the profit her deserved.

When you buy Assassin's Creed, the publisher does not make a profit. It cost them $30,000,000 to make, you bought it for $60. They need another 500,000 of you just to break even. If at this point, before they his that break even point you start handing out your copy to friends, than that makes it that much harder for them to hit the break even point.

Sure, they can make more copies for less than a penny, but eventually the market will reach saturation and no one will need Assassin's Creed and they can't sell anymore to be able to break even.

Can you see the difference now?
 
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451 Comments. 23 pages. Viewing page 13.
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