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User information for Mike Fisk

Real Name Mike Fisk   
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Nickname killer_roach
Email Concealed by request
ICQ None given.
Description
Homepage None given.
Signed On Oct 31, 2002, 20:40
Total Comments 1419 (Pro)
User ID 15013
 
User comment history
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News Comments > Evening Consolidation
7. Re: Evening Consolidation Jul 19, 2012, 09:06 killer_roach
 
Dades wrote on Jul 19, 2012, 07:00:
Since you are paying attention and we aren't, which specific predictions are you basing this on?

He's been right more often than not on predicting console price drops, he predicted the $60 retail price point at the start of the current console generation, and his earnings guidance has been, on balance, very accurate.

Again, Pachter isn't speaking from the perspective of a gamer, he's speaking as somebody analyzing the financial side of the industry. Most of the time what he's saying won't register to you unless it's something particularly buzz-worthy, and even then he's more accurate than you would expect for predictions that are basically "reaches".

Of course, the business side of the gaming industry is something that's more often than not sneered at by gamers, so people that represent that end up quite often becoming targets of derision.
 
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News Comments > Steam Sale Day Seven
28. Re: Steam Sale Day Seven Jul 19, 2012, 04:28 killer_roach
 
nin wrote on Jul 18, 2012, 21:04:
So! SimCity4 at 1 on the charts and NFS at 4. I hope EA doesn't mind their IP being cheapened.

Well, it's not like Amazon hasn't put the games on similar sales before already.

That being said, SC4 is pretty long in the tooth and NFSHP seemed to get a lot of permanent price cuts very quickly, even on Origin (although its price didn't fall as fast as Shift 2 did). At this point, both are likely pretty solidly in the "get the money where you can get it" stage of their life cycle.
 
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News Comments > Evening Consolidation
4. Re: Evening Consolidation Jul 19, 2012, 04:22 killer_roach
 
cento wrote on Jul 19, 2012, 03:58:
I don't understand why people keep reporting what this idiot was to say...

Hate to say it, but Pachter is right more often than most here about the state of the gaming industry. It might not be what you like, and you're more likely to remember the misses, but his overall level of accuracy is very high if you're actually paying attention rather than going "lol look what Pachter said," which, gauging from reactions around most gaming fora, is all the more attention that is paid to industry analysts.

As an analyst, most everything he says is some form of an educated guess. While I don't think he's spot on with his analysis here, the odds are good that he's at least partially correct (unless you just happen to think that Nintendo rushed out an alternate controller design out of the goodness of your hearts - if you do, then you're probably the sort of person who actually believes marketing speak).
 
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News Comments > Evening Consolidation
2. Re: Evening Consolidation Jul 17, 2012, 04:46 killer_roach
 
Fantaz wrote on Jul 17, 2012, 02:37:
From the sound of it, Pachter is only guessing it's Activision that forced it? Or he has insider information that's the case?

Sounds like Activision didn't tell him explicitly, but he's reading between the lines.

If I were to take a guess, it wasn't just Activision... but they are likely the only publisher with enough sway to make Nintendo change their mind, if they actually did.
 
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News Comments > Morning Consolidation
4. Re: Morning Consolidation Jul 16, 2012, 19:25 killer_roach
 
Their pre-order page for the PC version on Origin says it includes those bonuses. Hmm.

Closed Betas wrote on Jul 16, 2012, 19:14:
Choices.
Make a game that sells 200,000 copies and becomes a classic
or
Make a game for morons and sell 500,000 copies and become
laughing stock of intenet..

I bet EA chooses door number #2 10 outta 10 times,

They destroyed the industry.. they don't buy out the best studios to control their ip's and talent.. They buy them out to destroy them and control and dominate the complete market.

Everyone needs to wake up and quit buying EA titles...

You're forgetting upside/downside risk.

For an indie, 200,000 is typically top-end sales apart from bundles. Many will fail to crack 50,000 even at reduced price points. Even many of your so-called low-selling "classics" nearly destroyed studios. If you intend to stay in business, that's akin to committing suicide.

For a AAA title, 250-500K is typically the baseline. Anything below that should rightly be considered a disaster, but upside potential is 2-5 million, maybe more.

So, they can make a smaller, niche game and do okay at best, or they can make a splash and potentially generate a massive return.

I will say, however, that EA has likely misread their market in the last two years, expecting the same sort of end-cycle sales that existed in 2004-2005 at the twilight of the PS2's heyday, but it's hard for me to assail a company who makes a mistake of that order and remains largely profitable, as opposed to the developers who seemingly do everything right and have trouble staying afloat.
 
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News Comments > Morning Metaverse
3. Re: minecraft WoW Jul 16, 2012, 14:38 killer_roach
 
space captain wrote on Jul 16, 2012, 11:49:
looks ok if you zoom out like miles above... zoom in close and it looks like total shit

Well, that's Minecraft in a nutshell.
 
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News Comments > Deadpool Game
7. Re: Deadpool Game Jul 14, 2012, 23:32 killer_roach
 
kanniballl wrote on Jul 14, 2012, 22:19:
Well, as of a little while ago there was a YouTube video up showing what I imagine was in-game footage.

I wonder if the voice over "pew-pew's" are actually from the game, or just the DeadPool narrator commenting on the video.

If it's being consistent with the character, they're likely in the game.
 
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News Comments > Defense Grid 2 Kickstarter
49. Re: Defense Grid 2 Kickstarter Jul 13, 2012, 19:10 killer_roach
 
PHJF wrote on Jul 13, 2012, 18:53:
Kickstarter is for letting the public decide what projects get funded and which ones don't. Plain and simple.

Except this is a fucking sequel. If nobody bought the first game, nobody will buy the second game. If the first game sold well (and a sequel is justified), where's the money???

You're making a lot of assumptions about where the money went in the case of the first game, and how much of the work done on the first game is able to be used on a sequel. Since apparently they're having to go to a new engine for the sequel, I can see where their trepidation is, especially if they had a fair amount of loans taken out to finance the production of the first game.

That being said, in the case of traditional publishers, yes - the sequel wouldn't be made simply due to doubts about gaining a return on investment. But I thought that was the sort of consideration that people here hated?
 
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News Comments > Defense Grid 2 Kickstarter
47. Re: Defense Grid 2 Kickstarter Jul 13, 2012, 18:32 killer_roach
 
Cutter wrote on Jul 13, 2012, 14:56:
That's exactly it. That's like that KS by Thomas Jane yesterday. He wants 600k...are you kidding me? He's rich already. KS is not for multi-millionaires who don't want to risk any of their own money. It's for people who have zilch and a good idea. I really don't want to see KS devolve into a place where rich and/or successful companies/people who can actually afford to fund their own projects but simply don't want to so they ask everyone else. People who really need the resources shouldn't have to compete with that nonsense.

Kickstarter is for letting the public decide what projects get funded and which ones don't. Plain and simple. Your lust for pitting the little guy against the big guy seems to have blinded you to that fact.

Tom Jane may be a successful actor and quite wealthy, but he doesn't necessarily know that there's a market for a game based off of a story he wrote. (I'd be more shocked if an actor did know that ahead of time, to be honest.) Just because you have millions doesn't mean you should have to put your own money on the line to make something that nobody wants... if anything, millionaires are millionaires precisely because they do their best to avoid spending money on things that people don't want.
 
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News Comments > Clint Hocking Joins Valve
16. Re: Clint Hocking Joins Valve Jul 12, 2012, 20:46 killer_roach
 
Dades wrote on Jul 12, 2012, 19:00:
killer_roach wrote on Jul 12, 2012, 15:53:
Considering the number of employees Valve has, they should be doing at least one full-scale game a year. Then again, Steam has pretty well allowed them to take their time with their projects.

Nothing wrong with Valve shepherding projects along if it keeps producing quality games. Most of the ones mentioned here were unpolished alpha mod equivalents before they were in the picture, people really underestimate the level of work involved.

Very true, which has helped them largely avoid the trap that a lot of indie developers have, that being a fundamental lack of polish. You can call Valve games a lot of things, but "rough around the edges" isn't one of them.
 
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News Comments > Clint Hocking Joins Valve
13. Re: Clint Hocking Joins Valve Jul 12, 2012, 15:53 killer_roach
 
Cutter wrote on Jul 12, 2012, 15:25:
Portal was original, I'll give them that. Everything else was fast, cheap and easy to do, most of of it built on or around mods/other people's work. And what have they really changed about Steam since it launched. Not much and it's still a shitty UI. What do they spend most of their time doing? Making hats for TF2 and crap like that. So yeah, they are lazy considering how large they are and how much money they have. Imagine what that could accomplish if they were actually focused. I like valve but honestly, their work style reminds me more of government workers than a real business.

Portal started off as a student project at DigiPen where Valve hired the developers. Additionally, L4D was a project where Valve bought the development studio.

Considering the number of employees Valve has, they should be doing at least one full-scale game a year. Then again, Steam has pretty well allowed them to take their time with their projects.
 
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News Comments > etc., etc.
3. Re: Valve Counters EA Jul 12, 2012, 03:06 killer_roach
 
jdreyer wrote on Jul 12, 2012, 00:54:
So it comes down to this: Does EA want $10 of my dollars, or $0? That's the question.

Exactly. I'd expound on this further, but I'm pretty sure that the average person on here would be less than inclined to read a bunch of economic arguments.
 
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News Comments > EA Shakeup Rumor
13. Re: EA Shakeup Rumor Jul 11, 2012, 20:04 killer_roach
 
deqer wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 20:03:
Ya... it's the CEO's fault. ya... /sarcasm

The old rule of thumb... you hire a CEO for the purposes of firing them later.
 
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News Comments > EA Shakeup Rumor
11. Re: EA Shakeup Rumor Jul 11, 2012, 20:03 killer_roach
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 11, 2012, 19:59:
After this something tells me that Pachter will start to hear a lot less insider info from EA. Not to mention he made a cardinal sin for an analyst by saying that, he knows markets react wildly to even the slightest of rumor let alone leaking out a personal discussion with a potential for tremendous repercussions.

Holy crap Pachter, not only you're an unreliable, manipulative son of a bitch you're also a fucking incompetent by being the vehicle of this leak. Why Ricitiello didn't fire him on the spot after learning of a private talk getting public by means of the own analyst EA hires is beyond me. Serious ethical breach here and also a serious professional breach as well.

Pachter doesn't work for EA, although it's very likely that he burned some bridges there. Then again, if it is Moore that takes over, that might be water under the bridge, as I don't think he'd be particularly upset that a loose-lipped analyst forced EA's hand in dumping Riccitiello.
 
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News Comments > EA Shakeup Rumor
3. Re: EA Shakeup Rumor Jul 11, 2012, 19:19 killer_roach
 
Wouldn't come as a surprise to me. EA is still profitable, but earnings have been moving in the wrong direction for a couple of years now and they face considerable downmarket pressures. It wouldn't come as much of a surprise if Riccitiello was asked to fall on his sword and get someone else in charge.

On the bright side for EA, some of those downmarket threats (most notably Zynga) are starting to flail about in search of earnings growth and are becoming victims of their own overly aggressive strategies. It's looking more and more like the middle ground is becoming increasingly perilous for players in the field, and we may see gaming end up with a corporate structure not unlike film, with a handful of large, risk averse players at the top and a series of small, agile, and largely ephemeral players on the periphery of the market, taking advantage of emerging trends that the major names can't afford to risk getting into themselves at the time being.
 
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News Comments > Evening Metaverse
3. Re: Evening Metaverse Jul 10, 2012, 22:55 killer_roach
 
MrGrosser wrote on Jul 10, 2012, 22:27:
Ouya is a scam.

http://i.imgur.com/75MEN.jpg

I had to laugh at the "Android lacks proper power management" bit, considering the maximum power draw of a Tegra 3 system is still less than that of the Wii.

Most of the rest of the points are valid, though... basically they're creating a low-end console with commodity hardware and an open ecosystem. The only practical upshot is that you'll effectively be able to come up with a superior Ouya clone every 6-12 months if you so chose.
 
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News Comments > KAOS Studios Postmortem
17. Re: KAOS Studios Postmortem Jul 7, 2012, 22:05 killer_roach
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 7, 2012, 22:03:
Dmitri_M wrote on Jul 7, 2012, 21:59:
A big cathartic crash would be nice. Don't see it happening though. Game publishers will just stop making high budget titles and simplify and move to platforms like mobile that are profitable. This process is slow and has being going on for years.

As long as they leave the PC alone I couldn't care less.

But do read the two articles I linked on my previous message. They do explain things quite well and why it's very, very possible the crash will happen soon.

Goodie. So you, in a fit of juvenile pique, would rather pretty well immolate the entire industry for the next 5-10 years just because you're not seeing the games you like?

I'm sorry, but you're what is wrong with the industry, not the publishers.
 
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News Comments > KAOS Studios Postmortem
13. Re: KAOS Studios Postmortem Jul 7, 2012, 20:54 killer_roach
 
ASeven wrote on Jul 7, 2012, 19:26:
Jerykk wrote on Jul 7, 2012, 19:20:
ASeven wrote on Jul 7, 2012, 18:37:
AnointedSword wrote on Jul 7, 2012, 17:47:
Funny, they sold millions of copies yet still was a failure.

Gaming industry today.

Pretty much. EA has publically stated that if Dead Space 3 doesn't sell at least 5 million units, it will be the last game in the series.

It's reached the point where the market can't sustain itself. Too many big-budget games trying to compete with one another, with only a few actually achieving profitability due to ridiculously high development and marketing costs.

Perfect conditions for a crash, won't you say?

Same can be said of most any mass media format, though. If anything, you'll see a pivot in how publishers position and market their products if they find their current situation untenable. I doubt we're going to see the sort of sudden demand crash that marked the early 80s collapse of the gaming industry, mostly because we aren't seeing many new players in the top end, just downstream.

That being said, are the major publishers screwed as far as the current state of things are headed? Quite likely - that or they simply resign themselves to being less able to leverage themselves to finance new projects or attempt expansion by acquisition.

I will say, though, that you seem almost gleeful for the prospects of a 1983-like crash.
 
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News Comments > Morning Consolidation
15. Re: Morning Consolidation Jul 5, 2012, 16:57 killer_roach
 
Flatline wrote on Jul 5, 2012, 16:33:
Actually the small publishers are already there charging 5-10 bucks for apps when it comes to digitized board games.

Summoner Wars (sort of) launched yesterday and to unlock all the factions it's 8 bucks. Haggis, another extremely popular board game, costs 5. Carcassone costs like 12 and while they aren't top 25/angry birds levels of insane sales, they sell steadily, for long periods of time.

Quit bothering them with pesky things like facts and logic. They don't like it.

That being said, it's becoming clearly evident that no dominant pricing strategy exists for video games, although a newly-discovered successful one will attract a lot of attention from the big money players out there. As a result, for smaller studios the smart play will likely always be in cutting against the grain. If the big guns focus their resources on big-budget AAA titles priced at the current retail norms, then the indies will go downstream to mid-tier and lower price points. If the big guys go subscription-based, then the indies have a play with episodic gaming. If the incumbent publishers move into free-to-play, then developers of niche titles might, oddly enough, have an angle at pushing all-encompassing titles at higher price points to better cater to the demands of their customers, who want it all and are willing to pay for it all.

What I'm getting at is there's no single pricing model that fits all needs, and that, contrary to Parallax Abstraction's fears, no matter where the big money goes there's likely no way for them to squeeze out other players.
 
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News Comments > FINAL FANTASY VII Remake Plans
4. Re: FINAL FANTASY VII Remake Plans Jul 4, 2012, 12:12 killer_roach
 
Eirikrautha wrote on Jul 4, 2012, 11:54:
So it's not bad enough that Hollywood has no creativity and must continue to remake the same movies over and over again (as if the world needs another Total Recall); now we have video games condemned to eternal creative loops. Don't get me wrong, FFVII was the height of JRPGs... but I'd rather see a new good one than replay an old one...

And yet, IMO, FFVII was the worst of the games in the series from the PSOne era.
 
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1419 Comments. 71 pages. Viewing page 34.
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