I'd be totally surprised if Django won anything. Waltz for supporting actor wouldn't be out of line, but I still don't think he'll get it. Argo was such a typical Hollywood movie (cringe-worthy ending), and Lincoln was Oscar bait through and through, so I'm going with them.
Personally I'd go with Zero Dark, which I thought was a much better movie than Hurt Locker. The pacing probably put a lot of people off but overall it was just perfectly executed (no pun intended).