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14. Re: Saturday Tech Bits Jan 29, 2013, 08:12 Beamer
 
jdreyer wrote on Jan 29, 2013, 01:05:
@ Beamer

1. Are you saying major manufacturers are going to stop supporting PC over the next decade or so? Even though PCs are dropping a bit in market share, there's no way it will go away. Even if it becomes niche, there will still be parts, though they will be more expensive. The costs of producing unique circuit boards has come way down, and will continue to do so.

2. What PC R & D is going away? We're still seeing massive tech improvements in CPU, GPU, drives, I/O, everything. Many of those innovations apply pan industry, regardless of device, like SSDs and USB3, but of course with a PC's massive bandwidth and compute power, it takes the most advantage of these.

3. Longevity: My old machine was fine (I still have the machine-bought a new case), and even played games fine, I just wanted something new. I thought I'd get a noticeable perf improvement. It was actually a mistake, and I could have easily waited another couple of years, as the improvement was much less than I was expecting.

4. Flexibility: what machine would ever replace it? Short term, there's nothing, no console, tablet, notebook, server, etc. can replace what my tower can do. You might have a point a decade or two out: cloud computing via any device might be more powerful, but I don't foresee them overcoming the latency issues.

5. How is accessibility fleeting? The macine will always be accessible.

At this point, machines are orders of magnitude more powerful than they need to be to do most tasks. If I take care of this one (and I as careful to get a case with tons of cooling with all intakes covered with washable dust covers) I see it lasting nearly a decade. I may need a new GPU in a few years, and maybe some more storage, but I can add those things in easily. What computing device other than a calculator do you expect to still have in a decade's time? Your tablet, phone, and laptop will surely be dead/replaced by then.

1) PCs dropping "a bit?" No, laptops are dropping a bit. PCs have cratered. Again, open up your local Best Buy ad and tell me how many desktops are in it (I imagine you mean them, not laptop, since 90% of your points aren't attributed to laptops.) Or go review any CES information.
Or look at Nvidia. 4 years ago, at CES, all they talked about was 3D Vision and how awesome their new PC cards were. 3 years ago they officially introduced Fermi. 2013? They spent about 25% of their time discussing cloud computing, 25% of the time discussing Shield, and 50% of the time discussing Tegra4. Where was the PC technology in this? What is the name of the new Nvidia architecture?
Where do you think Nvidia is putting their money?
Intel announced they're out of the motherboard business. Where is Intel putting their money?

2) Again, look at where the major players are putting money. AMD is the only one not moving more towards mobile and tablet, and they're nearly out of business. Intel and Nvidia have begun drastically shifting. They're putting signficantly more money into low power, low heat solutions (e.g., mobile.) As more money goes there, and less to PC, eventually the two platforms meet

3) Why did it play games fine? Because the technology has stagnated

4) Like I said, nothing could replace it in flexibility. But you're so ridiculously short-sighted if you're saying "in a decade or two." I believe Sony said the same thing about Discmen and Kodak said the same thing about cameras. Phones replaced both. Guess what's next

5) Accessibility is fleeting if, you know, no one makes that machine anymore. If Nvidia and AMD stop producing desktop-based GPUs, or severely cut back development, then you lose that accessibility, no?
 
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