I've been burned on a number of Sega published titles. There were all bad situations going in though. Bad developer, bad programmers, bad end product. Sega then decides to still ship the product but rather than front cash for patches, they just let the bugs twist in the wind and forget the game ever existed.
Stormrise is the most atrocious example of this and AvP is a close second.
I want to say I would most likely make the same calls if I was in Sega's position, but there practices have made me a lot more cautious about what has the Sega name on it nowadays.
Although, this should be my rule for all publishers and games. Wait 3 months and see what the consensus is. But I am weak-willed.
If they released a new Shining Force, I'd be all over it and pay them money on the day the announced it.