I'm sorry, why are we listening to predictions from a guy who admittedly spends more time on his rockets than he does either programming for/or playing games?
In case you all don't know yet. John Carmack is completely out of touch. Yes he's insanely smart, too bad he's not using any of that on his company.
Their last 3 titles have been miserable failures, Todd Swollenhead still refuses to admit defeat in the QuakeLive argument, and now more new devs are looking to license either Unreal tech, or ugh...Crytek, than Id tech.
This article is a cry for relevance...and a warning for all of you about all the upcoming overpriced-underdeveloped-hype titles from Id and their licensees.