Speaking as someone who chipped in $30, I don't know if any big name developer has a better record of critically-acclaimed commercial flops than Tim Schafer. I don't know how much Scrolls is going to cost to develop, but it might not be $13 million. (Is the market really that saturated? Saturated to me is tower defense, but hell if those aren't still being churned out).
Also, is Bethesda's lawsuit even going anywhere? There hasn't been anything posted about it since October.