|
|
 |
| [May 08, 2012, 09:28 am ET] - Share - Viewing Comments |
Gamasutra - How long before the Kickstarter bubble bursts?
We are still in the early days of our Kickstarter relationship, the early days of falling in love. Everything our partner does is wonderful. We gloss over the risks, we ignore the downsides, because the glory of falling in love is everything.
I think we have about six months left of that period. Towards the end of this year, some Kickstarter projects are going to start slipping. Some will see their teams collapse amidst bicker recriminations. Some pledgers are going to start getting very angry.
Post Comment
Enter the details of the comment
you'd like to post in the boxes below and click the button at
the bottom of the form.
 |
| 35. |
Re: Op Ed |
May 8, 2012, 14:33 |
Beamer |
|
|
Tumbler wrote on May 8, 2012, 14:24:
Too much stupid shit that has no chance of ever coming to fruition or living up to promises keeps getting kickstarted made by big publishers.
Two sides of a coin I guess, your comments seem to paint the gaming industry perfectly and I see Kickstarter as the complete opposite. A lot of stuff that the gaming industry seems to salivate over gets passed over or barely makes it on kickstarter, FPS's, and the ideas and games that the industry scoffs at, Wasteland 2, Double Fine Adventure game, gets a tidal wave of support.
The difference, Tumblr, is that when the publisher releases something stupid you do not buy it. When a game ships buggy you do not buy it. When a game gets canceled because it sucks or the developer goes out of business you do not pay for it.
With Kickstarter you do.
Right now I'd wager most people spending lots of money do not think there is a good chance of that money just disappearing with nothing to show for it. Like that guy that just spent $10k to be a villain in Carmageddon. Honestly, does anyone have much faith in Stainless being able to go from 10 years of horrible crapware to a fun game? Someone bet $10k they will. Sorry, that's a stupid gamble, and if the game sucks, or does not come out, I doubt that guy will rush back to kickstarter. If Pebble sucks, or does not come out, I doubt any of those hundreds of thousands of people spending $300 for a prototype will come back.
Here's the test for a bubble:
1) Are people spending lots of money?
2) Is the money being spent someone foolishly, without much due diligence or regard for how reasonable the promised returns are?
3) If the promises don't come true, will people become much stingier?
In the dot com bubble all of this was true. People threw stupid amounts of money at companies that had little chance of a return, and when those companies started failing people got gunshy and stopped giving money to anyone, causing even good companies to fail.
In the mortgage crisis all of this was true. People threw stupid amounts of money at mortgagees that had little chance of making their monthly payments, and when those people started defaulting the lenders got gunshy and stopped giving money to anyone, even those that could clearly afford it.
In kickstarter this will be true. People are throwing stupid amounts of money at things that most likely have no chance of actually coming out or being good, and when they get burned they'll stop funding indiscriminately and start very seriously considering what they're willing to gamble on, and as a result good projects that deserve money will go underfunded, especially ones that can't market themselves.
Good things will still get funded. Bad things will still get funded. But the amount of funding, or at least growth of funding, will slow.
And yeah, I know, a lot of you are saying "I use kickstarter plenty and I don't think I do it stupidly." I've put over $1,500 into projects and I do not think I've done so stupidly. But collectively we probably are being somewhat stupid and reckless (I've definitely put some money into some things I think are long shots, maybe just $5 or $10, but 20,000 people doing that is a lot of money to risk), and some individuals out there are being entirely stupid. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Twitter 
